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481 | Property Market Outlook 2024

 

It’s everybody’s favourite time of the year…  

(No, it’s not Christmas. Or your birthday. Well, it’s actually OUR birthday month and we’re giving you a present: Our Free Suburb Report 😉) 

It is, however, that time of year when we bring you…  

Our 2024 Property Market Outlook!   

Using expert data from the past 12 months and our own countless years of experience, we’re covering…  

👉 The headlines we saw in 2023 (and the #1 biggest derailer the Gov didn’t expect) 
👉 Why did we see housing prices soar? (With economic insights)
👉 The Big Focus of 2024, plus the one critical number the RBA is waiting to change before interest rates drop

👉 Where will the plane land? Interest rates, inflation figures & the easing cycle  
👉 What investors want to see in business investment data
👉 The Supply Story: What data reveals about future sale and rent volume   
👉 The downside risks and critical upsides in 2024
👉 Will property prices grow over the next 12 months?  
👉 The Rental Story: Will the crisis continue?  
👉 The most challenged markets and what markets we predict to see growth in!  
👉 Rental Rises: Who are the price makers and takers today?      

Tune in now to hear us honestly assess the past predictions and forecast the future of Australia’s housing market! 

  

P.S. The Property Investors Council of Australia (PICA) needs support! As mentioned in “What’s Making Property News”, PICA is a not-for-profit organisation that gives property investors across Australia a voice. Any membership or donation helps. Become a member, donate or find out more today >>   

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

  • Our Birthday Present to You: Free Suburb Report 
    Go one level deeper than our Property Market Outlook. Learn how your suburb has performed and its changing community and properties. ‘Cos it’s our birthday month, we’re also giving it away for $0 (Usually RRP $40)   
  • Share what’s on your mind through our SpeakPipe: Leave us your raving reviews, little lifehacks and burning questions – and if we mention it on the podcast, you’ll get a free Start & Build course as our thank you 😊   

 

Timestamps

  • 0:00 – Property Market Outlook 2024 
  • 1:39 – Free Suburb Report  
  • 5:29 – Thank you, Muzzaaa (Let us know what’s on your mind & get a free Start & Build course!)  
  • 6:27 – Mindset Minute: There are two ways to use money… 
  • 7:14 – What happened in 2023?  
  • 10:07 – Why have housing prices soared?  
  • 11:37 – Last year, we got THIS wrong…  
  • 12:20 – The Water Wheel is slowing 
  • 14:44 – The big headline of 2024 
  • 15:07 – What we want to see in Business Investment data 
  • 17:15 – Are businesses and government still splurging on spending?  
  • 18:45 – The number that needs to change before interest rates drop… 
  • 21:27 – The drivers of demand  
  • 23:51 – Our assumptions  
  • 26:32 – The dangerous derailers  
  • 27:29 – The supply story: What the data reveals about future sales and rent volume  
  • 30:01 – New financing for investors & owner-occupiers 
  • 32:51 – The incoming storm: The #7 downside risks 
  • 35:38 – Here’s the exciting upsides!  
  • 37:06 – Buyer Demand across Australia 
  • 38:59 – Days on Market & Vendor Discounts: What do they signal?  
  • 41:32 – Use THIS sophisticated tool for predicting growth…  
  • 43:53 – Good signs for property prices  
  • 45:31 The rental story: Will the crisis continue?  
  • 48:12 – The most challenged markets 
  • 50:29 – Let’s consolidate: Big 4 bank’s outlook & what markets we predict to see growth 
  • 53:38 – The Commuter Belt is driving… 
  • 54:44 – Why Melbourne is a challenged market  
  • 58:56 – Predictions for Sydney  
  • 1:01:38 – Our advice for 2024  

And… 

  • 1:05:44 – Lifehack: Sleep is the best meditation. Here’s how to ease yourself into it.
  • 1:09:57 – WMPN: Help give investors a voice through supporting PICA 

 

363 | Exodus to the Regions – Will this Trend Reverse? – Chat with Dr Nicola Powell

This data is hot off the press folks!! 🔥🔥🔥

It’s no secret that property prices have grown quite a bit lately, but recent data is showing that we’re breaking records!

Here’s a snippet from Domain’s media release just a week ago:

September Quarter 2021 House Price Report shows Australian house prices experiencing a historical rate of growth at 21.9%, the fastest annual rate of growth on record with median house prices at almost $1 million nationally.

But…what does this mean for both sellers and buyers? Is this likely to stay or are we going to see a crash in the new year? Is this growth even sustainable with our current economy?!

AND…

Will the Regional Exodus Backflip?!!

There are heaps of moving parts here and we know it can get a little overwhelming…

So we’ve outsourced and brought in an expert to help us out.

And yes, we’ve been teasing you about her for the past few weeks so bring on the drum roll please…

🥁🥁🥁

Joining us on the show today is none other than Dr Nicola Powell, Chief of Research & Economics for Domain and one of Australia’s leading property market experts!

With more than 15 years’ research experience that spans academic, government and private sector, Nicola is the leading force behind Domain’s regular data reports that keep the Australian public up to date on what’s happening in the market.

Safe to say that we’re in good hands folks.

Tune in to find out more!

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

  • 1:57 – Mindset minute: It’s better to hang out with people _______ than you, pick out associates whose __________ is better than yours and you’ll _____________.
  • 3:09 – Meet our first-time special guest, Dr Nicola Powell!!
  • 4:00 – How did a science doctorate degree morph into a career in economics?!
  • 5:58 – How she translate hard cold data into behavioural logic and patterns
  • 8:33 – Nicola’s Money Story and what she’s telling her kids now?
  • 11:50 – How did her conservative upbringing shape her money management habits?
  • 13:38 – Where are we RIGHT NOW in our Property Cycle?
  • 14:42 – GROWING AT $1,200 A DAY?!
  • 15:00 – Is this record growth rate expected to continue?
  • 15:46 – Is there any good news from the September Quarter Housing Data?
  • 18:37 – Sydneysiders: Forever Renting or Cross the Borders
  • 20:54 – What has the pandemic accelerated for Sydneysiders?
  • 22:57 – The shift to a different property type…
  • 27:13 – How did the Most Lock-downed City still have a Record Price Growth Rate?!
  • 28:54 – Will the Regional Exodus Backflip?!
  • 30:21 – The biggest social experiment that has proven one key thing…
  • 31:15 – What’s the new buzzword of the pandemic?
  • 32:07 – A little nugget on Price Growth trend!
  • 33:40 – An Aging Population and Its Impact on Supply
  • 36:00 – Areas where they’ll be a risk of a reversal in property price…
  • 39:00 – Is APRA’s Macroprudential changes necessary to influence Demand?
  • 40:53 – When will interest rates start to rise?
  • 42:00 – Which of these two events will trigger the interest rate hike?
  • 43:45 – (HOT) Markets around Australia with still rooms for growth!!
  • 46:08 – Household size and misallocation of housing stocks in Australia…
  • 47:00 – What needs to be disrupted to improve affordability?
  • 48:41 – The Stamp Duty Debate: Lump sum or Annual Repayment?
  • 50:17 – Surprising Find from Domain’s Submission on Housing Affordability…
  • 52:00 – Residential property as an investment class to store family wealth – Yay or Nay?

And of course…

  • 56:37 – A camping trailer life hack that can potentially save your relationship! 😉
  • 59:09  – Ben’s quick update on RBA’s view on their Bond Program

 

 

359 | Locked Down & Locked Out: Buying Property In A Shutdown State! – Chat with Leah Calnan

Is property sliding under the pressure of continual lockdowns?!

Folks, it’s no surprise that Victoria’s extended lockdowns (and indeed lockdowns happening right across the country) are having unintended consequences to property buyers, sellers AND renters.

With Melbourne spending more days in lockdown than ANYWHERE else in the world, it begs the question: How can you buy property in a Shutdown State?!

Here to unpack all this, as well as the Winners & Losers of legislation changes, is returning guest Leah Calnan, President of Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV). Leah has served as REIV President since October 2019 and during this time has seen SIGNIFICANT disruptions and changes to the Victorian property market and Tenancy Act. She has over 24 years’ experience in property management, is the sole Director of Metro Property Management and, of course, is considered one of the industry’s most dedicated, accomplished and senior Property Management practitioners in the country.

Leah is about to give you a behind the scenes look at the stark reality of a property market Locked Down & Locked Out, including the tangible impact this has on property investors, in conjunction with the “VCAT Mess” that’s currently unfolding here in Victoria.

So, is it all doom and gloom? Is it simply Too Much For Too Long for Victorian investors? Is “The Great VIC Exit” fast-approaching?!

Listen now to learn How To Buy Property in a Shutdown State & stay informed of the impact current lockdowns are having on the broader property market.

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

  • 02:13 – FYI: The dark spot on Ben’s forehead…
  • 04:46 – What do you think about this Mindset Minute?!
  • 06:50 – Meet Leah.
  • 07:32 – The Controversial Question we just had to ask!
  • 10:09 – Leah’s first property & money management story…
  • 16:08 – Money Advice for teenagers!
  • 17:14 – Some of the ‘highlights’ as REIV President…
  • 19:15 – Winners & Losers: Legislation Changes!
  • 20:01 – Will these Unintended Consequences further drive investors out of Vic?
  • 21:43 – Which legislation would Leah most like to repeal?!
  • 23:33 – The VCAT MESS!!
  • 26:16 – Have landlords cracked down on the type of tenant they get?
  • 27:42 – Has the legislation change lead to longer first term tenancies?
  • 29:00 – Locked Down & Locked Out!
  • 31:13 – One of the biggest challenges with Victorian lockdowns…
  • 34:09 – What HAS opened up again for buyers?
  • 38:32 – How agents keep potential buyers safe…
  • 40:16 – Can you inspect properties in regional Vic if you live in Melbourne?
  • 42:12 – Is there a “Super Saturday” coming between now and Christmas?
  • 45:53 – The Best Property Management Tips!
  • 48:30 – Why You Should NOT Self-Manage Your Property!
  • 53:28 – How to measure your wealth!
  • 55:25 – What’s Making Property News!?!
  • 55:38 The Scalpel Has Landed: Macroprudential Change Is HERE!

 

 

Episode 358 | Too Much Risk? Australian Property & Economic Update – Chat with Nerida Conisbee

Breaking news just in on the property & economic front, folks!

There’s clearly quite a bit going on with the health crisis, soaring property market and… just announced this week… an indication that a tightening of lending might be coming sooner than we think!

Despite price growth in the current market being led primarily by owner-occupiers, the risks around rising household debt may mean that APRA and the financial regulators will step in to prevent the build-up of future risks to the broader economy…

The question is: If they’re going to pull the handbrake, What Would This Look Like and WHEN Would It Happen?

Here to unpack all this, as well as the latest Australian Property & Economic Update is our good friend Nerida Conisbee, Chief Economist at Ray White.

Now, if you’ve heard Nerida’s data-driven insights and wisdom on the show before, you might’ve noticed she’s had a little change in title from Chief Economist at the REA Group… And if you haven’t heard from her before (you’re in for a real treat!) or simply need a refresher: Nerida is a highly regarded economist, with a specific expertise in residential and commercial property. She is currently the MOST quoted property commentator in Australia, the third most quoted economist and a sought-after public speaker, writer and columnist with more than 20 years of property research experience throughout Asia Specific.

So, if you want a PRECISE update on property and economic news here in Australia (and where it’s looking to go from here), then please listen now to get the gold & stay informed.

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

  • 00:40 – Block your ears non-AFL fans 😉
  • 03:28 – Try this word instead.
  • 05:24 – Meet Nerida…
  • 06:04 – The change & data leak
  • 07:36 – Never Before Revealed: Nerida’s Money Backstory!!
  • 10:46 – Does she carry this through with her own family?
  • 13:24 – Nerida’s property story
  • 14:33 – The current economy – What’s going on?!
  • 16:27 – What will likely unfold in the December quarter?
  • 16:57 – What picks up when we come out of lockdown?
  • 17:12 – The Big Challenge: Iron Ore Prices
  • 17:49 – Where will this show up most in the Aus economy?
  • 18:48 – What might happen if we see higher hospital rates?
  • 21:25 – Australia’s Economy­ – What might happen?
  • 22:38 – The Lack of Migration: How Problematic Is It?
  • 23:39 – The Hot Topic: INFLATION
  • 26:00 – Too Much Risk!?!
  • 26:18 – A Trillion Dollars In Debt: Australia’s Debt Hole
  • 26:47 – How are we going to pay that debt back?
  • 28:15 – Property Update!
  • 29:45 – Breaking News: Josh Frydenberg’s Announcement!
  • 30:08 – Household Debt — Where is it currently at?
  • 31:25 – What does Nerida see happening with the regulations?
  • 35:54 – How do you stop people taking on too much debt?
  • 38:30 – What’s happening with First Home Buyers?
  • 41:46 – What you need to know about immigration
  • 45:04 – The Luxury Market: How is it performing?
  • 46:34 – Listing Volumes – What’s happening now?
  • 49:00 – The Future of Commercial Property in CBDs
  • 52:14 – Unemployment Numbers: The Risk Factors
  • 55:21 – How to NOT save $250! (interesting way to look at things…)
  • 56:28 – Pain & Gain: New Data From CoreLogic

 

 

354 | The Rise of Family Office Wealth & Investing Without Emotion

Logic vs Emotion. Unspoken Property Conversations. Family Office Wealth.

What do all these things have in common?

Well, we’re unpacking them all – and more! – in today’s Q & A episode where we welcome back ol’ mate Ben from his Big Trip by answering NEW listener questions about how to invest in property as an aspiring Australian in current property market conditions!

And it begs the question: How much money do you need to invest in property?

For example: if you have been priced out of the major capital cities or are a low income earner, what are your options?  And how can you balance both the investment strategy and this very real reality?

Plus, there’s a couple of unspoken property conversations we want to tackle, and let you in on some tips on how to take the emotion out of investing… and what to consider if you are considering gifting property to your kids or helping future generations to succeed…

Tune in now for the gold!

Q’s we answer further below 👇

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

AweGuest Series:

Winter Series:

 

The Questions We Answer

Question from Aaron about The “Unyolking” of Major Cities
In regards to the unyolking of major cities, what do you think that does to inner city suburb housing prices into the future? Do you think the appeal of these suburbs could start to reduce a bit and the property values will follow or at least slow in terms of growth?

 

Question from Anonymous on Buying in Ballarat, Bendigo or Geelong
Hey guys big fan of the show. I’m 26 years old and I’m currently to invest in a property but Melbourne is getting a bit too expensive, so I was thinking in the region in Victoria so around Ballarat, Bendigo or Geelong and my friends were thinking the same thing as well. I was just wondering what you thought about that. Thanks!

 

Question from Ross on Investing on Low Income
Good day guys. Love the podcasts, love the book and, like a lot like probably a lot of people who get in contact, with you wish I found you 10 or 15 years ago. Anyway, my name is Ross I’m 42. I only work as a mechanic, so I only make $52,000 a year before tax. Me and my wife have twin girls who are 7 and my wife is a teacher but she’s not working full time at the moment just doing casual relief teaching moments and looking to get back into it full time in maybe two or three- or four-years’ time. My question is she says we should wait until she’s working full time to look into an investment property, I say let’s do it now ‘cos I’m excited and I wanna get in the market, but our household income is not very much obviously mine being 52 grand, she makes around about 20 to 30 grand just depending before tax every year, but yeah my question mainly is, is there a minimum amount of household income that we should be making before we should start an property investment portfolio. We own our rent-a-home where we owe 100 grand on our own home loan at the moment and probably will have that paid off in a couple of years .

My main question is, Do you think we should wait on such low wages until she’s making more money or can we go for it now?

 

Question from Rosie on Gifting Properties to Children
Our mother is 73 and she is a single mum who’s worked hard all her life as a sole trader to be in a position to leave a property to each of her three children. She is finishing work soon and has decided that her children need these properties now at the most difficult time of their life with young kids, however, this means that she will not have these properties to live on over the next 30 years. What advice would you give her, having no superannuation? She’s decided she wants to go on the pension, but is now realising the tax implications of gifting these properties.

 

 

 

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