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Episode 354 | The Rise of Family Office Wealth & Investing Without Emotion

Logic vs Emotion. Unspoken Property Conversations. Family Office Wealth.

What do all these things have in common?

Well, we’re unpacking them all – and more! – in today’s Q & A episode where we welcome back ol’ mate Ben from his Big Trip by answering NEW listener questions about how to invest in property as an aspiring Australian in current property market conditions!

And it begs the question: How much money do you need to invest in property?

For example: if you have been priced out of the major capital cities or are a low income earner, what are your options?  And how can you balance both the investment strategy and this very real reality?

Plus, there’s a couple of unspoken property conversations we want to tackle, and let you in on some tips on how to take the emotion out of investing… and what to consider if you are considering gifting property to your kids or helping future generations to succeed…

Tune in now for the gold!

Q’s we answer further below 👇

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

AweGuest Series:

Winter Series:

 

The Questions We Answer

Question from Aaron about The “Unyolking” of Major Cities
In regards to the unyolking of major cities, what do you think that does to inner city suburb housing prices into the future? Do you think the appeal of these suburbs could start to reduce a bit and the property values will follow or at least slow in terms of growth?

 

Question from Anonymous on Buying in Ballarat, Bendigo or Geelong
Hey guys big fan of the show. I’m 26 years old and I’m currently to invest in a property but Melbourne is getting a bit too expensive, so I was thinking in the region in Victoria so around Ballarat, Bendigo or Geelong and my friends were thinking the same thing as well. I was just wondering what you thought about that. Thanks!

 

Question from Ross on Investing on Low Income
Good day guys. Love the podcasts, love the book and, like a lot like probably a lot of people who get in contact, with you wish I found you 10 or 15 years ago. Anyway, my name is Ross I’m 42. I only work as a mechanic, so I only make $52,000 a year before tax. Me and my wife have twin girls who are 7 and my wife is a teacher but she’s not working full time at the moment just doing casual relief teaching moments and looking to get back into it full time in maybe two or three- or four-years’ time. My question is she says we should wait until she’s working full time to look into an investment property, I say let’s do it now ‘cos I’m excited and I wanna get in the market, but our household income is not very much obviously mine being 52 grand, she makes around about 20 to 30 grand just depending before tax every year, but yeah my question mainly is, is there a minimum amount of household income that we should be making before we should start an property investment portfolio. We own our rent-a-home where we owe 100 grand on our own home loan at the moment and probably will have that paid off in a couple of years .

My main question is, Do you think we should wait on such low wages until she’s making more money or can we go for it now?

 

Question from Rosie on Gifting Properties to Children
Our mother is 73 and she is a single mum who’s worked hard all her life as a sole trader to be in a position to leave a property to each of her three children. She is finishing work soon and has decided that her children need these properties now at the most difficult time of their life with young kids, however, this means that she will not have these properties to live on over the next 30 years. What advice would you give her, having no superannuation? She’s decided she wants to go on the pension, but is now realising the tax implications of gifting these properties.

 

 

 

Episode 353 | What’s Coming Next? The Future of Australian Property! – Chat with Simon Kuestenmacher

What’s coming next for property?? Well… quite a lot!

Folks, it turns out Covid has a “little” bit of a say in the property shift taking place in Australia… one that might actually be here to stay!!!

So, back by popular demand and here to co-host our AweGuest series is none other than expert Demographer Simon Kuestenmacher, Co-Founder and Director of Research at The Demographics Group!

Yep, you might remember his ol’ German accent and ridiculously-wise insights back in Episode 314 where we discussed ‘The Millennial Movement’ and how it’s shifting property demand right across the country…

… but now with a continuing ‘exodus’ to regional locations since the global pandemic swept in and, err, overtook our lives (and work environments), there might actually be WAAY more to this shift in the Australian property market!!

 

“… You mean these changes might be here for good!?!”

 

Plus, the recent 2021 Census has just rolled on in…

… so what can someone who studies the changing structure of human populations tell us about HOW this will affect the future demand for property!?!

Well, step right up Simon Kuestenmacher! Aside from working directly alongside Bernard Salt (yep), Simon holds degrees in geography from leading universities in both Berlin and Melbourne and has also worked for several years as a business consultant with KPMG Australia. … Oh, and did we say he is the most entertaining Demographer ever!?!

 

This expert does NOT disappoint. You’re about to get the most exciting Demography Degree of your life! (it’s much more fun than it sounds… PLUS you’re about to level up your property prediction abilities like nothin’ else! 😉)

Tune in now to find out the future of the Australian property market… it’s a ripper!!

 

Free Stuff Mentioned:

 

Here’s What We Cover:

  • 01:14 – Meet Simon Kuestenmacher
  • 01:57 – Money conversations in Germany!
  • 02:03 – Wise lessons from two parents who are authors!
  • 03:13 – Money Karma…
  • 05:12 – The best thing parents can do to teach their kids about Money!
  • 07:52 – Is it possible to predict irregular cashflow?
  • 12:32 – “Minimal Happiness” – What is it?
  • 17:23 – CENSUS TIME – What does this mean for a Demographer?
  • 21:11 – Is OLD Census data immediately irrelevant?
  • 23:22 – How does Australia rank internationally?
  • 24:48 – Why should investors CARE about Census results?
  • 27:47 – The Fried Egg vs The Scramble Egg!
  • 30:07 – How COVID has dramatically affected the CBD!
  • 33:30 – “The yolk needs to reinvent itself…”
  • 36:11 – Are all businesses headed towards the unique Google office?
  • 38:26 – The COVID Generation & “The Bottom Drawer of Masks”
  • 38:59 – Like Deleting The Uber Eats App: Australia’s border closure
  • 41:28 – How the TAFE system comes into play…
  • 42:47 – Key trends coming out from The Knowledge Economy…
  • 48:58 – Has COVID made Aussie’s drink more alcohol than ever before!?!
  • 52:04 – What drives Australians more than anything else?
  • 52:46 – What are we seeing with Melbourne’s CBD?
  • 55:31 – The trend to regional – is it here to stay?
  • 56:23 – “Extreme commuting distance from the main job cluster” – Err, what happens if you cross that threshold?
  • 58:42 – What would drive someone to live in, say, Warrnambool?

And…

  • 1:00:10 – Which regional centres will FURTHER increase in growth?
  • 1:02:03 – The ‘Donut’ That Massively Impacts Where To Invest In Property!
  • 1:04:01 – The Goldilocks Zone for the Australian City…
  • 1:05:47 – The Future of Launch Pad Suburbs!
  • 1:07:43 – The Mass Exodus To Queensland – Is It A Boom & Bust?
  • 1:19:33 – Simon’s Life Hack!

 

And our community’s questions!

Question from Maggie on The Trend towards Regional Australia

Hi thanks for bringing on some awesome guests for the AweGuest edition. This is a question for Simon, I’d be interested to know based on recent trends with the move towards Regional Australia and increasing prices across Regional Australia, do you see this trend continuing or is it just a kind of a kickback or a side effect of COVID?

 

Question from Julia on The Donut Theory!

Hi there Simon.  Hi there Bryce. I’m thrilled that the topic of demography is up again it was my favorite subject at uni and I loved it on Simon’s last visit to The Property Couch. B&B have described a donut? In terms of housing in the city centre; meaning the centre of the donut is to be avoided for investment purposes. I was wondering Simon if that is true for all other capitals in the world for example London and Paris? I have bought a place in the heart of the city of Sydney that is certainly not doing much while international borders are closed. It has, however, been consistently rented albeit for reduced rent. I’m just wondering where what your thoughts are in terms of buying CBD for residential investment purposes, and what you think of the notion of the donut? Look forward to hearing your response.

 

Quesstion from Mirela The Exodus North to Queensland

Hi Simon my name is Mirela. I have a question in regards to the exodus of population towards North most likely Queensland. They have quite few projects in the pipeline possibly in Olympia, you know far away in the distance. Do you think that is sustainable? It has been something similar, a shift in population towards Queensland and Western Australia due to the mining boom but that eventually crashed during that time. How do you now compare this new opportunity for Queensland with the opportunities in the past when they open mines and so on? I hope this is clear; if not just come with the best insight that you have regards to this. Thank you so much!

 

Question from Dillon Next Growth Suburb

Hey Bryce and Simon. When looking for the next growth suburb what Data do you look for to identify the start of a growth cycle and where can you find this data. I’m currently subscribed to Corelogic‘s property value, but it’s limited data and I’m not sure what to look for. Cheers, Dillon

 

 

 

Episode 336 | Is Price Growth Over? 7 Signs Growth Is Slowing – Chat with Tim Lawless

Is the property market showing signs that growth is SLOWING?

Well, according to Tim Lawless, Head of Research at CoreLogic, it IS – and there are 7 tell-tale signs it’s happening!

That’s right. Joining us today is CoreLogic‘s executive research director for Australasia and indeed one of Australia’s leading property market commentators – and Tim’s noticed quite a few interesting trends in the data that reveal a SLOWDOWN on the strongest growth conditions we’ve seen since the 1980s!

So… is price growth over!?!

And what are the seven signs that suggest capital growth might be changing pace?

 

The 7 Signs…

    1. CoreLogic Home Value Index is already indicating __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
    2. Lower __ __
    3. Rise in __ __
    4. A lift in __ __ __
    5. Negative __ __
    6. Less __
    7. High __ __ __

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

02:18 – Will legislation changes in Victoria affect Airbnb properties?

04:15 – Full Summary of How To Win Friends & Influence People!

07:01 – Meet Tim!

08:04 – Was Tim surprised how much the market bounced back?

09:42 – Why is the housing market so important for Australia’s economy?

11:51 – Why do we generally see the government supporting property when there is a downturn?

13:37 – The Multiplier Effect & The Wealth Effect

14:43 – What’s the biggest barrier to the property market?

15:04 – Does Treasury and Government look at the risks of LVR’s and overall debt?

15:36 – The 4 Key Metrics APRA Monitors Very Closely…

16:15 – Will there be credit tightening coming soon?

18:23 – What would this credit tightening look like?

20:53 – The 7 Signs the housing market is moving through peak growth…

21:39 – What’s the catalyst that normally causes a slowdown?

23:56Sign #1 – What’s the hedonic value measuring?

26:47 – Which capital cities are showing this slowdown (and which ones AREN’T)!?!

27:01 – Is this a DOWNWARD trajectory… or just a slowdown in growth?

29:44 – Sign #2 – What’s happening with Auction Clearance Rates?

32:17 – Sign #3 – What’s rising?

34:08 – Sign #4 – What’s lifting that’s contributing to the slowing growth?

35:50 – What’s happening with high rise developments?

36:05 – Unit oversupply: What’s going on?

36:40 – How many investors buy mid to high rise apartments?

38:04 – When will inner city apartments bounce back?

39:05 – If there’s not as many investors in the market, will APRA still need to intervene?

40:20 – Why is the level of household debt so closely monitored?

42:10 – Serviceability assessments…

42:38 – Sign #5 – Negative Population Growth… let’s unpack it!

43:17 – How have property prices grown WITHOUT population growth, anyway?

46:39 – Sign #6 – When Fiscal Support gets taken out of the economy…

49:05 – Why does the government offer grants for NEW properties, not existing?

50:54 – Sign #7 – Where Housing Affordability Comes In…

52:21 – How long does it take to save a deposit across the different states?

56:48 – When was the last time we saw all markets rising like we have?

58:04 – How is CoreLogic measuring the shift to regional markets?

 

And

1:02:10 – Key Takeaway from the episode…

 

 

Episode 334 | Bernard Salt: The BIG Shift In Australian Property!

If you listen to just one episode, please make it this one!

Folks, today we are chatting with one of our very own virtual mentors (of all time!)… BERNARD SALT!!

Yep. You’ve probably heard us talking about Bernard on the podcast before – indeed, he has formed a lot of our own views about where the demand for property is heading.

In a nutshell: if there is one person on earth who deeply understands the intricacies of Australians and what drives people 1) to this country, and 2) to make specific property and lifestyle decisions, it is this man!

(And if you know these insights… you’ll begin to see where the property price increases are likely to occur, right?!!)

It obviously goes without saying that over the decades we’ve absolutely read and reread (and dog-eared the pages) of Bernard’s highly-regarded book (just one of many) called “The Big Shift”.

Yep. Big Guest.

Bernard Salt is widely regarded as one of Australia’s leading social commentators by business, the media and the broader community. He draws on a range of data sets to interpret social change now into the future. He argues that social and cultural change are powerful forces that are reshaping the way we live, the way we work and even how we form relationships. He was awarded the Member of the Order of Australia (AM) in the 2017 Australia Day Honours and was a partner of KPMG until his retirement in June 2017, and still acts as a special advisor to the firm. Between 2011 and 2019 he was an adjunct professor at Curtin University Business School.

Now Bernard is the Managing Director of The Demographics Group, and he writes weekly columns for The Australian that deal with social, generational and demographic matters.

Essentially… Bernard is the Go-To Guru on how statistics tell human stories and what the data suggests about key future trends!

Tune in now – ripper episode, folks! 🤸‍♂️

 

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

 

 

 

Episode 302 | Back To The Future: Lessons From 50 Years At The Top Of His Game – Chat with Scott Keck

Want to hear from an Expert Witness who has been observing and analysing the property market for over FIFTY years? And what if they also happen to be a highly regarded industry professional who’s literally been valuing the price of property for more than five decades…?

… you’d probably get a bucket load of invaluable intel, right?

Well, let’s put it this way… the gold from today’s guest is well worth a king’s ransom! One of our favourite episodes yet – and you’re about to hear from someone who’s property knowledge is off the charts and who, let’s face it, we’ve been admiring from afar for years!

Welcome to the couch… Scott Keck!

Scott Keck is Chairman of Charter Keck Cramer, a leading Australian independent, strategic property consulting firm. Scott has more than 50 years property valuation experience within the Melbourne market, having begun with the firm in 1968, becoming a Director in 1978, Managing Director in 1984 and Chairman in 2010. He is considered one of the best and most high-profile valuer.

He is frequently engaged as a senior negotiator in complex commercial and statutory issues related to the property market and for advice in relation to large portfolio valuations for major statutory and private corporations.

And get this… in the last eight years alone he published over 500 articles on the property market!!

So, what can we ALL learn from someone who’s been in the market before we were even born???

 

Free Stuff

 

Here’s What We Cover…

(FYI: so much! This is practically a property masterclass 🙌)

  • So… what does someone who has over fifty years’ experience have to say about the property market??
  • Scott’s views on property as an investment
  • What’s changed over the decades? (Design styles, construction materials, floorplans, the use of space etc, the urban sprawl, density etc, etc)
  • What does this tell us about buyer demand?
  • Very Important Observations About Humans and Property Over 50+ Years!
  • What (if anything) has been consistent with the property market?
  • What’s the most interesting property Scott has ever had to value?
  • Post COVID-19, what does the residential property market look like?
  • What would prevent/impact this from happening?
  • Is it likely that people will want to continue living in capital cities moving forward?
  • Why will the “four pronged strategy” to get the economy moving again influence the price of property?
  • How on earth will population DOUBLE over the next 40-50 years?
  • And what will the property market look like to cater for this demand?
  • For investment purposes, how many bedrooms should a townhouse have?
  • Why do Off The Plan’s almost always outperform?
  • A deep dive into Off The Plan numbers: Why you’re in trouble before the house is even built!
  • What will the future of Melbourne look like? And will this now change with COVID-19?

 

“For every two people that come we need a new dwelling” – Scott Keck

 

 

 

 

 

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