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Episode 336 | Is Price Growth Over? 7 Signs Growth Is Slowing – Chat with Tim Lawless

Is the property market showing signs that growth is SLOWING?

Well, according to Tim Lawless, Head of Research at CoreLogic, it IS – and there are 7 tell-tale signs it’s happening!

That’s right. Joining us today is CoreLogic‘s executive research director for Australasia and indeed one of Australia’s leading property market commentators – and Tim’s noticed quite a few interesting trends in the data that reveal a SLOWDOWN on the strongest growth conditions we’ve seen since the 1980s!

So… is price growth over!?!

And what are the seven signs that suggest capital growth might be changing pace?

 

The 7 Signs…

    1. CoreLogic Home Value Index is already indicating __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
    2. Lower __ __
    3. Rise in __ __
    4. A lift in __ __ __
    5. Negative __ __
    6. Less __
    7. High __ __ __

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

02:18 – Will legislation changes in Victoria affect Airbnb properties?

04:15 – Full Summary of How To Win Friends & Influence People!

07:01 – Meet Tim!

08:04 – Was Tim surprised how much the market bounced back?

09:42 – Why is the housing market so important for Australia’s economy?

11:51 – Why do we generally see the government supporting property when there is a downturn?

13:37 – The Multiplier Effect & The Wealth Effect

14:43 – What’s the biggest barrier to the property market?

15:04 – Does Treasury and Government look at the risks of LVR’s and overall debt?

15:36 – The 4 Key Metrics APRA Monitors Very Closely…

16:15 – Will there be credit tightening coming soon?

18:23 – What would this credit tightening look like?

20:53 – The 7 Signs the housing market is moving through peak growth…

21:39 – What’s the catalyst that normally causes a slowdown?

23:56Sign #1 – What’s the hedonic value measuring?

26:47 – Which capital cities are showing this slowdown (and which ones AREN’T)!?!

27:01 – Is this a DOWNWARD trajectory… or just a slowdown in growth?

29:44 – Sign #2 – What’s happening with Auction Clearance Rates?

32:17 – Sign #3 – What’s rising?

34:08 – Sign #4 – What’s lifting that’s contributing to the slowing growth?

35:50 – What’s happening with high rise developments?

36:05 – Unit oversupply: What’s going on?

36:40 – How many investors buy mid to high rise apartments?

38:04 – When will inner city apartments bounce back?

39:05 – If there’s not as many investors in the market, will APRA still need to intervene?

40:20 – Why is the level of household debt so closely monitored?

42:10 – Serviceability assessments…

42:38 – Sign #5 – Negative Population Growth… let’s unpack it!

43:17 – How have property prices grown WITHOUT population growth, anyway?

46:39 – Sign #6 – When Fiscal Support gets taken out of the economy…

49:05 – Why does the government offer grants for NEW properties, not existing?

50:54 – Sign #7 – Where Housing Affordability Comes In…

52:21 – How long does it take to save a deposit across the different states?

56:48 – When was the last time we saw all markets rising like we have?

58:04 – How is CoreLogic measuring the shift to regional markets?

 

And

1:02:10 – Key Takeaway from the episode…

 

 

Episode 334 | Bernard Salt: The BIG Shift In Australian Property!

If you listen to just one episode, please make it this one!

Folks, today we are chatting with one of our very own virtual mentors (of all time!)… BERNARD SALT!!

Yep. You’ve probably heard us talking about Bernard on the podcast before – indeed, he has formed a lot of our own views about where the demand for property is heading.

In a nutshell: if there is one person on earth who deeply understands the intricacies of Australians and what drives people 1) to this country, and 2) to make specific property and lifestyle decisions, it is this man!

(And if you know these insights… you’ll begin to see where the property price increases are likely to occur, right?!!)

It obviously goes without saying that over the decades we’ve absolutely read and reread (and dog-eared the pages) of Bernard’s highly-regarded book (just one of many) called “The Big Shift”.

Yep. Big Guest.

Bernard Salt is widely regarded as one of Australia’s leading social commentators by business, the media and the broader community. He draws on a range of data sets to interpret social change now into the future. He argues that social and cultural change are powerful forces that are reshaping the way we live, the way we work and even how we form relationships. He was awarded the Member of the Order of Australia (AM) in the 2017 Australia Day Honours and was a partner of KPMG until his retirement in June 2017, and still acts as a special advisor to the firm. Between 2011 and 2019 he was an adjunct professor at Curtin University Business School.

Now Bernard is the Managing Director of The Demographics Group, and he writes weekly columns for The Australian that deal with social, generational and demographic matters.

Essentially… Bernard is the Go-To Guru on how statistics tell human stories and what the data suggests about key future trends!

Tune in now – ripper episode, folks! 🤸‍♂️

 

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

 

 

 

Episode 302 | Back To The Future: Lessons From 50 Years At The Top Of His Game – Chat with Scott Keck

Want to hear from an Expert Witness who has been observing and analysing the property market for over FIFTY years? And what if they also happen to be a highly regarded industry professional who’s literally been valuing the price of property for more than five decades…?

… you’d probably get a bucket load of invaluable intel, right?

Well, let’s put it this way… the gold from today’s guest is well worth a king’s ransom! One of our favourite episodes yet – and you’re about to hear from someone who’s property knowledge is off the charts and who, let’s face it, we’ve been admiring from afar for years!

Welcome to the couch… Scott Keck!

Scott Keck is Chairman of Charter Keck Cramer, a leading Australian independent, strategic property consulting firm. Scott has more than 50 years property valuation experience within the Melbourne market, having begun with the firm in 1968, becoming a Director in 1978, Managing Director in 1984 and Chairman in 2010. He is considered one of the best and most high-profile valuer.

He is frequently engaged as a senior negotiator in complex commercial and statutory issues related to the property market and for advice in relation to large portfolio valuations for major statutory and private corporations.

And get this… in the last eight years alone he published over 500 articles on the property market!!

So, what can we ALL learn from someone who’s been in the market before we were even born???

 

Free Stuff

 

Here’s What We Cover…

(FYI: so much! This is practically a property masterclass 🙌)

  • So… what does someone who has over fifty years’ experience have to say about the property market??
  • Scott’s views on property as an investment
  • What’s changed over the decades? (Design styles, construction materials, floorplans, the use of space etc, the urban sprawl, density etc, etc)
  • What does this tell us about buyer demand?
  • Very Important Observations About Humans and Property Over 50+ Years!
  • What (if anything) has been consistent with the property market?
  • What’s the most interesting property Scott has ever had to value?
  • Post COVID-19, what does the residential property market look like?
  • What would prevent/impact this from happening?
  • Is it likely that people will want to continue living in capital cities moving forward?
  • Why will the “four pronged strategy” to get the economy moving again influence the price of property?
  • How on earth will population DOUBLE over the next 40-50 years?
  • And what will the property market look like to cater for this demand?
  • For investment purposes, how many bedrooms should a townhouse have?
  • Why do Off The Plan’s almost always outperform?
  • A deep dive into Off The Plan numbers: Why you’re in trouble before the house is even built!
  • What will the future of Melbourne look like? And will this now change with COVID-19?

 

“For every two people that come we need a new dwelling” – Scott Keck

 

 

 

 

 

Episode 207 | Pete Wargent – The Real Story Behind the Charts

Folks, The Summer Series continues, this time in the shadow of Christmas… BUT that doesn’t mean we’ve stopped gifting very special guests!!

Joining us today is no stranger to property investment or The Property Couch… Pete Wargent!!

You might remember him back on Episode 139 | Pete Wargent, Multimillionaire at Age 33: How did he do it?

And that title explains a lot of what Pete’s about — achieving financial independence. And, yep, he personally did it for himself at the ripe age of 33 too.

To give you an idea of Pete’s background: during his professional career, he qualified as a Chartered Accountant in London and was previously a Director at the ‘Big 4’ accounting firm, Deloitte. He indeed walks the talk when it comes to investing and he gratefully parked his career in accountancy, having achieved early financial freedom, as detailed in his first best-selling book, Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom.

And he’s here to talk all things data, the future of the Australian property market and the impacts of Labor’s proposed changes to Negative Gearing, as outlined in his recent report.

 

Here’s what you can expect…

 

Stand Out Quote from the Ep…

“Labor’s policy is now solving a problem that’s been solved.”
– 
Pete Wargent

 

Missed our earlier episodes in The Summer Series?

 

DOWNLOAD our Free Binge Guide Here – The First 20 Episodes

This 80-odd page document is the vault containing all the foundational tips and insights you need to be a successful investor.
Want a Free Copy of The Golden Highlights? You can get it here.

Episode 153 | The Do’s and Don’ts: The Discoveries We’ve Learnt in Property Investing (PART 1)

Happy New Year, folks!!! We hope you celebrated this new beginning in style — and also gave yourself a pat on the back for the great things you made happen in 2017!!

Indeed, 2018 is now with us……. and we are SO excited to share this new chapter with you. We also have a few surprises up our sleeve this year, with more than a handful of epic guests lined up!!

** If you’re super keen on hearing from someone in particular, or about a topic you’ve been dying to learn about, simply head to our Contact Us page or feel free to drop us a line at info@thepropertycouch.com.au**

And remember: $5 is all you need to become a PICA Member!

 

But back to today’s episode…. The Summer Series (Part 1 of 2) on the Foundational Principles of Property Investing, featuring THE best bits of gold from our guests.

In plain English, please?

You’ll hear The Do’s and The Absolutely-Don’ts of Property Investing from the people who have been there, done that, and have an enviable property portfolio to prove it.

(In a nutshell: all of the gold, snipped and trimmed, to fit into 2 episodes).

 

Featuring in today’s episode include the following guests:

 

Filling in the gold mine includes:

  • The Five Golden Rules of Property Investment
  • What is Gentrification and what signs do you need to look for?
  • Why type of car (yep) can influence the future price of a market?
  • The Checklist to getting a great Property Manager
  • If you’re a first time investor, what things MUST you know?
  • What do you need to be aware of when getting advice?
  • What property type is most risky? Why?
  • What role does the media play?
  • How to determine if you need a building inspection for the particular property?
  • What can go wrong?
  • How can you build a portfolio through rentvesting?
  • Asset selection tips and why is location research crucial?

 

Resources mentioned in the podcast:

Get your Break Even Calculator here

Become a PICA Member here

See the infographics Ben was talking about here

 

 

 

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