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Episode 336 | Is Price Growth Over? 7 Signs Growth Is Slowing – Chat with Tim Lawless

Is the property market showing signs that growth is SLOWING?

Well, according to Tim Lawless, Head of Research at CoreLogic, it IS – and there are 7 tell-tale signs it’s happening!

That’s right. Joining us today is CoreLogic‘s executive research director for Australasia and indeed one of Australia’s leading property market commentators – and Tim’s noticed quite a few interesting trends in the data that reveal a SLOWDOWN on the strongest growth conditions we’ve seen since the 1980s!

So… is price growth over!?!

And what are the seven signs that suggest capital growth might be changing pace?

 

The 7 Signs…

    1. CoreLogic Home Value Index is already indicating __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
    2. Lower __ __
    3. Rise in __ __
    4. A lift in __ __ __
    5. Negative __ __
    6. Less __
    7. High __ __ __

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

02:18 – Will legislation changes in Victoria affect Airbnb properties?

04:15 – Full Summary of How To Win Friends & Influence People!

07:01 – Meet Tim!

08:04 – Was Tim surprised how much the market bounced back?

09:42 – Why is the housing market so important for Australia’s economy?

11:51 – Why do we generally see the government supporting property when there is a downturn?

13:37 – The Multiplier Effect & The Wealth Effect

14:43 – What’s the biggest barrier to the property market?

15:04 – Does Treasury and Government look at the risks of LVR’s and overall debt?

15:36 – The 4 Key Metrics APRA Monitors Very Closely…

16:15 – Will there be credit tightening coming soon?

18:23 – What would this credit tightening look like?

20:53 – The 7 Signs the housing market is moving through peak growth…

21:39 – What’s the catalyst that normally causes a slowdown?

23:56Sign #1 – What’s the hedonic value measuring?

26:47 – Which capital cities are showing this slowdown (and which ones AREN’T)!?!

27:01 – Is this a DOWNWARD trajectory… or just a slowdown in growth?

29:44 – Sign #2 – What’s happening with Auction Clearance Rates?

32:17 – Sign #3 – What’s rising?

34:08 – Sign #4 – What’s lifting that’s contributing to the slowing growth?

35:50 – What’s happening with high rise developments?

36:05 – Unit oversupply: What’s going on?

36:40 – How many investors buy mid to high rise apartments?

38:04 – When will inner city apartments bounce back?

39:05 – If there’s not as many investors in the market, will APRA still need to intervene?

40:20 – Why is the level of household debt so closely monitored?

42:10 – Serviceability assessments…

42:38 – Sign #5 – Negative Population Growth… let’s unpack it!

43:17 – How have property prices grown WITHOUT population growth, anyway?

46:39 – Sign #6 – When Fiscal Support gets taken out of the economy…

49:05 – Why does the government offer grants for NEW properties, not existing?

50:54 – Sign #7 – Where Housing Affordability Comes In…

52:21 – How long does it take to save a deposit across the different states?

56:48 – When was the last time we saw all markets rising like we have?

58:04 – How is CoreLogic measuring the shift to regional markets?

 

And

1:02:10 – Key Takeaway from the episode…

 

 

Episode 334 | Bernard Salt: The BIG Shift In Australian Property!

If you listen to just one episode, please make it this one!

Folks, today we are chatting with one of our very own virtual mentors (of all time!)… BERNARD SALT!!

Yep. You’ve probably heard us talking about Bernard on the podcast before – indeed, he has formed a lot of our own views about where the demand for property is heading.

In a nutshell: if there is one person on earth who deeply understands the intricacies of Australians and what drives people 1) to this country, and 2) to make specific property and lifestyle decisions, it is this man!

(And if you know these insights… you’ll begin to see where the property price increases are likely to occur, right?!!)

It obviously goes without saying that over the decades we’ve absolutely read and reread (and dog-eared the pages) of Bernard’s highly-regarded book (just one of many) called “The Big Shift”.

Yep. Big Guest.

Bernard Salt is widely regarded as one of Australia’s leading social commentators by business, the media and the broader community. He draws on a range of data sets to interpret social change now into the future. He argues that social and cultural change are powerful forces that are reshaping the way we live, the way we work and even how we form relationships. He was awarded the Member of the Order of Australia (AM) in the 2017 Australia Day Honours and was a partner of KPMG until his retirement in June 2017, and still acts as a special advisor to the firm. Between 2011 and 2019 he was an adjunct professor at Curtin University Business School.

Now Bernard is the Managing Director of The Demographics Group, and he writes weekly columns for The Australian that deal with social, generational and demographic matters.

Essentially… Bernard is the Go-To Guru on how statistics tell human stories and what the data suggests about key future trends!

Tune in now – ripper episode, folks! 🤸‍♂️

 

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

 

 

 

Episode 314 | The Millennial Movement: How It’s Shifting Property Demand – Chat with Simon Kuestenmacher

Did you know there’s a “Millennial Movement” currently happening? What if we told you this is shifting the property type set for high demand? What if we told you it might not be what you think it is?!

Folks, we’re about to dive inside the mind of an expert Demographer – someone who studies the changing structure of human populations and how this is going to play out in the future. And someone we’re VERY excited to have on!

Today’s guest is Simon Kuestenmacher – Co-Founder of and Director of Research at The Demographics Group!

Yes, The Demographics Group is, of course, headed by Managing Director Bernard Salt, one of Australia’s most sought-after social commentators…. and Simon not only works alongside him, he is himself a rising star in the world of demography – particularly when it comes to data animation and interpretation.

Even better, he has a rare talent of explaining these insights in a way that’s both super engaging (you’ll soon see!) so we can ALL understand and benefit from. He holds degrees in geography from leading universities in both Berlin and Melbourne and has also worked for several years as a business consultant with KPMG Australia. Basically, he absolutely knows his stuff!

Key Message Before You Listen…. As you likely know already – Australia’s population has a HUGE flow on effect to the demand (and hence the price) of property. At the end of the day, “population” is really “people”… and people, of course, live in and set the demand for properties… So when someone tells you little-known insights about who these people are and what they’re up to – i.e. key demographic trends, consumer insights and cultural changes – if you’re someone who’s interested in INVESTING in property… well, it’s extremely wise to pay attention.

You’ll get huge value out of this ep, folks!

Tune in now to hear what’s coming next for Australian Property!

 

Stuff Mentioned…

 

Here’s What We Cover..

  • Demographics 101 – What’s the #1 you must know when it comes to understanding demographics data?
  • What’s The Millennial Movement that’s shifting property demand?
  • The property type set to boom this decade…
  • The New COVID-norm analysis – what does it mean for property?
  • Are City Properties A Thing Of The Past?
  • Will the shift to regional locations be PERMANENT?
  • Who are the type of people who DISLIKE working from home?
  • What country or location most compares to Australia?
  • Where does Australia fit in the global landscape?
  • Why is the fastest growing economy not always the best economy?
  • Property Through The Generations – What It Says About Future Demand
  • What are “Launch Pad Suburbs”?
  • The major difference between Australian and European countries
  • Will immigration levels pick back up?
  • How many international students become permanent residents here?
  • The 1954 Melbourne map…
  • Which Australian capital city spends the most on wrist watches?! (And what does this tell us?)
  • What are the key trends that shape the way we live?
  • Upcoming Trends Property Investors Need To Be Aware of

 

 

 

 

Infographics from McCrindle Research

As mentioned on Episode 185 folks, there are some amazing data and insights from Mark McCrindle! And all his reports and insights are free for download on their website! Go to McCrindle Research website here >>

But if you’d like one now, we’ve compiled all of the reports into one PDF! Just fill in the form below and we’ll email it to you right away.

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

The reports that we’ve combined are…

  • Australian Population Map – This population map resource outlines Australian demographics – city by city, state by state.
  • Sydney Vs Melbourne – Comparing the most significant data of Sydney and Melbourne in a visualised infographic to show how these global cities measure up.
  • Australia’s Household Income and Wealth Distribution – This infographic of annual household income by quintiles shows the spread of total earnings in Australia
  • Australian Income and Wealth Distribution by Generation – Exploring how both income and wealth is distributed across the generations of households in Australia and how it has been changing.
  • Live the Dream Report – FPA and McCrindle partnered to conduct new research into the regrets, dreams, and attitudes to matters of money and life across generations, genders and geographies. The new research shows almost one in four Australians (23%) believe they are ‘definitely’ or ‘mostly’ living the dream. These enviably content people are nearly three times more likely to seek the advice of a financial planner (24%) than those who describe themselves as not yet living the dream (9%)

Again, all of these reports and more are free for download on their website so please do check them out if you love what you see here.
Go to McCrindle Research Website >>

 

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