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RBA Cash Rate Sept 2023 | China’s Economic Slowdown and Its Impact on Australian Interest Rates

As spring paints the town with color, it’s time for our September Economic and RBA commentary update – where the economic scene keeps on shifting. This month, we’re getting into the nitty-gritty of a few key topics. Hang out with Ben as he unpacks the RBA’s latest moves! šŸ˜‰

 

In today’s RBA update, here are the main things we’re diving into:

  • Checking out how China’s economic slowdown might affect Aussie interest rates.
  • Giving a shout-out to our outgoing RBA Governor, with a little tribute.
  • Taking a deep dive into property updates, focusing on Supply Absorption.
  • And don’t blink, because we’ve got some jaw-dropping data that might raise an eyebrow or two.

 

Stay tuned to keep your finger on the pulse of the latest market buzz and snag some priceless insights for smarter financial moves during this lively season.

 

 

 

310 | Is Property Just A Ponzi Scheme?

Have you ever questioned if property is as good as itā€™s cracked up to be? Like, is it really a sure-bet investment?

Youā€™ve seen the headlinesā€¦ Youā€™ve heard us say certain properties should be in the ā€œno goā€ zone for investors… And maybe youā€™ve even seen or heard about other property markets around the world that actually CRASHED ā€“ quite literallyā€¦ some even plummeting in prices overnight.

Soā€¦ What makes the Australian property market different? Is it guaranteed to NEVER fail? And how do we know ā€œfor sureā€ that your money is as ā€œsafe as housesā€?!

Hereā€™s the dealā€¦ a client of ours recently gave us some feedback after working with us. Feedback that, to be quite frank, made us stop in our tracks.

And we wanted to address that feedback today because, one, it raises a few valid pointsā€¦ and, two, we think this episode will help any of you folks out there who might have some reservations about the property market of your ownā€¦ and/or you simply want to educate yourself more on the Australian property market, how it works and why investing in it isnā€™t going to end in tears in a few years down the trackā€¦

Suss the feedback we received below & Listen Now to hear our response!

 

The Feedback We Receivedā€¦

A lot of millennials (including myself), are sceptical about property and put off investing because we read/consume a lot of stuff that is bearish on property. I would also say that I found it difficult to listen to the podcast because it is too ‘normie’ and doesn’t address/contend with a lot of the current zeitgeist outside the mainstream media that people consume nowadays (Zero hedge, Martin North, Real Vision, Jolly Swagman podcast, Nasim Taleb, Steve Keen, the case for crypto).

I put off investing in property for years because of this sort of content saying that property is a pyramid scheme for boomers and that valuations are only maintained due to central bank policy and credit availability. Instead of dismissing this stuff as conspiracy theories ā€“ actually take it on and come up with persuasive arguments against it instead of relying on me taking 5 years to find them myself.

  • admit that current immigration levels are unsustainable politically and can’t be a key driver of house prices
  • admit that the majority of growth in house prices is due to credit availability and decreasing interest rates
  • admit that there is nothing inherently different about Australia from say Ireland or Spain and their property crashes (other than maybe the ability to print our own currency).Ā 
  • admit the risk of a Japanese lost decade and drop in consumption and birth rates caused by high levels of household debt.Ā Ā 

I would have felt way better going into this if I’d heard some strong arguments against this stuff. Having said all that – I want to invest in property because itā€™s a human need and it will never go to zero (wealth preservation). I remain sceptical of continued price growth (or at lease real price growth). However, I acknowledge that yes, the game is rigged for boomers but what choice do I have? Getting a bad return on real estate is better than doing nothing.Ā If you want to get more (smart) millennials on board you need to address this stuff.

 

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

 

307 | The Budget Wrap And Is The Property Market Leaving Clues?

The Federal Budget has just been announcedā€¦ so what does this mean for you and the property market?

Folks, in this episode weā€™re diving deep on the new Budget (one of the most important budgets since the Great Depression!) AND, most excitingly, something else thatā€™s absorbing our thoughts right nowā€¦

The Property Market Is Now Leaving Cluesā€¦!

Thatā€™s right. The ducks are lining upā€¦ which means Positive News For The Property Market!

The question isā€¦ are you ready to hear if Australiaā€™s economy is really ā€œon the mendā€ and whatā€™s coming next for the property market?!

If so, youā€™re about to find out!

(ā€¦ What an episode!)

P.S Life Hack brought to you by our listener, Colin Lau! Send Bryce your own Life Hack here.

 

Free Stuff Mentionedā€¦

Hereā€™s a bit of what we coverā€¦

  • The Budget: Whatā€™s In It For You and The Property Market
  • The Key Insights from the Big 2020 Budget
  • Why has the Treasury taken these measures?
  • When The Ducks Line Up: Why Is It ā€œPositive Newsā€ For Property?
  • Why is the property market so resilient?
  • How much is the economy going to decline for the rest of the year?
  • When Will The Recession End?
  • Why the ā€œInstant Asset Ride-Offsā€ have a ripple effectā€¦
  • New Buying incentives Announced..
  • When will we see a vaccine for COVID-19?
  • How much will you get from the Tax Cuts?
  • Playing To Win vs Playing Not To Lose
  • How do you work out the ā€œFair Valueā€ of property prices?
  • New Lending Laws ā€“ Why is it in your favour to be credible for your lending?
  • The Immigration Storyā€¦
  • ā€œJobs, Jobs, Jobsā€ā€¦ what does this even look like??
  • The 12 ā€“ 24 month outlook for property (and why it should make you smile)

 

 

 

234 | Have We Bottomed Out Sooner Than We Thought? The Exclusive Data Insights from Louis Christopher from SQM Research

Well, well, wellā€¦. Have we hit the bottom of the market folks???

In the shadows of the election ā€” aka the Coalitionā€™s surprise victory ā€” it appears that confidence has returned to the property market!

And now the crystal ball question ā€” ā€œWhenā€™s the bottom of the property market happening?ā€may not be as cryptic (or as distant from us!!) as we first thought!

So. What do we mean by this?

Well, letā€™s put it another wayā€¦ We jumped on a plane last week especially to bring you back the insights from todayā€™s guest!!! And you just might recognise him ā€”Louis Christopher the Director of SQM Research and one of Australiaā€™s most respected and impartial Research Property Analysts. He has extensive knowledge and experience of property and is regular quoted in the media on his insights!

And heā€™s NOT afraid to tell it like it is.

Soā€¦ whatā€™s his latest data suggesting?

Before you meet the man behind the media and get to hear his forecasts, we just want to remind you that, yes, even though PICA likely had a bit of an impact on the election results, our work on behalf of all Australian property investors is by no means done.

And as Ben talks about in todayā€™s show —- thereā€™s obvious MUCH more PICAā€™s aiming to achieve, so if youā€™d like to become a member for as little as $5, please Become a Member Today.

Is something stopping you from joining PICA? Let Ben know here.

Hereā€™s what we discuss in todayā€™s episode:

  • What happened with Louisā€™s grandma that made him interested in property?
  • Whatā€™d he do to make his tenants pay rent on time? (Warning: not for everyone!)
  • What used to happen in the data space?
  • Why was there controversy starting SQM?
  • What data was he desperate to get his hands on? Howā€™d they get it?
  • What does SQM stand for?
  • What else do they measure aside from property data?
  • How do they pick the turning point of the market place?
  • How often do they ā€œget it rightā€?
  • Are the observations coming out from the election revealing a trend?
  • What does he see happening in the next 2 ā€“ 4 years?
  • And what had he modelled if Liberal was re-elected?
  • How has the uncertainty of the market been lifted?
  • How will APRAā€™s recent changes affect the property market?
  • Will the RBA cut their rate by MORE than 25 basis points next month?
  • What are the issues with Auction Clearance Rates?
  • Can they forecast for Capital Growth?
  • What do they use at a locality level vs the macro level?
  • How does he measure fair market value?
  • Is it a good idea to have a market thatā€™s totally dependent on housing?
  • Is the Australian economy looking up?
  • Whyā€™s it hard to create inflation if there is so much debt?
  • What happened to rents and construction levels in 1985?
  • What makes for a good economy?
  • The First Home Buyers Deposit Scheme: Will it have a material or immaterial impact on the property market?
  • What do we think of the NRAS scheme?
  • Is it time to invest in Perth??
  • Does a rental market predict that capital growth will likely happen?

AND THE BIGGIEā€¦

  • Whenā€™s the bottom of the market likely going to happen?

233 | Is it Tick, Tick… Boom? Post Election & Off the Plan Pain with Angie Zigomanis from BIS Oxford Economics

Well, folks ā€” Australiaā€™s officially had their say after Saturdayā€™s voting spreeā€¦ and The Coalition are holding tight on their power for another term! Which surprised a lot of us. BUT there is a silver liningā€¦

ā€¦ Negative Gearing has survived another day!!

Which basically meansā€¦ NO dumb policy is about to cripple the property market any time soon!!

But the question remainsā€¦ what are we in for now??

Joining us today is Angie Zigomanis, Senior Manager at BIS Oxford Economics and heā€™s got his binoculars pointing to the horizonā€¦ because the data heā€™s been scrutinising is exposing a LOT about what weā€™re about the see unfold in the property market!

The big picture??

Off the Plan propertiesā€¦. !!!

Resources mentioned in todayā€™s show:

Oh, and if youā€™re around tonight folks, tune in to Escape From the City ā€” Bryce is on ABC TV TONIGHT at 8:00PM!

Hereā€™s what you’re in for…

  • Our election stories: howā€™d we get the news?
  • Where does BIS Oxford Economics sit in the economic arena?
  • And how many different countries do they analyse?
  • What did they discover about negative gearing changes prior to the election?
  • What happened to the stock market AFTER the election?
  • Whatā€™s likely to happen with business confidence as a result?
  • How is the First Home Buyers Deposit going to affect the property market?
  • Whatā€™s happening with construction?
  • Will we start to see economic growth?
  • How likely is it that the RBA is going to DROP their cash rate next month?
  • What did Governor Phillip Lowe state in his press conference on Tuesday?
  • What have APRA done with their assessment rate?
  • Whatā€™s the latest with the US/China Trade Talks?
  • How might the Australian economy be affected by this?
  • PERILS OF OFF THE PLAN: What is the data revealing about Off the Plan Properties?
  • In Melbourne alone, how many were sold at a loss?
  • Who is most likely to be the second buyer of Off the Plan properties?
  • What may happen to developments in future?

Is affordability a real issue?

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