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Episode 310 | Is Property Just A Ponzi Scheme?

Have you ever questioned if property is as good as it’s cracked up to be? Like, is it really a sure-bet investment?

You’ve seen the headlines… You’ve heard us say certain properties should be in the “no go” zone for investors… And maybe you’ve even seen or heard about other property markets around the world that actually CRASHED – quite literally… some even plummeting in prices overnight.

So… What makes the Australian property market different? Is it guaranteed to NEVER fail? And how do we know “for sure” that your money is as “safe as houses”?!

Here’s the deal… a client of ours recently gave us some feedback after working with us. Feedback that, to be quite frank, made us stop in our tracks.

And we wanted to address that feedback today because, one, it raises a few valid points… and, two, we think this episode will help any of you folks out there who might have some reservations about the property market of your own… and/or you simply want to educate yourself more on the Australian property market, how it works and why investing in it isn’t going to end in tears in a few years down the track…

Suss the feedback we received below & Listen Now to hear our response!

 

The Feedback We Received…

A lot of millennials (including myself), are sceptical about property and put off investing because we read/consume a lot of stuff that is bearish on property. I would also say that I found it difficult to listen to the podcast because it is too ‘normie’ and doesn’t address/contend with a lot of the current zeitgeist outside the mainstream media that people consume nowadays (Zero hedge, Martin North, Real Vision, Jolly Swagman podcast, Nasim Taleb, Steve Keen, the case for crypto).

I put off investing in property for years because of this sort of content saying that property is a pyramid scheme for boomers and that valuations are only maintained due to central bank policy and credit availability. Instead of dismissing this stuff as conspiracy theories – actually take it on and come up with persuasive arguments against it instead of relying on me taking 5 years to find them myself.

  • admit that current immigration levels are unsustainable politically and can’t be a key driver of house prices
  • admit that the majority of growth in house prices is due to credit availability and decreasing interest rates
  • admit that there is nothing inherently different about Australia from say Ireland or Spain and their property crashes (other than maybe the ability to print our own currency). 
  • admit the risk of a Japanese lost decade and drop in consumption and birth rates caused by high levels of household debt.  

I would have felt way better going into this if I’d heard some strong arguments against this stuff. Having said all that – I want to invest in property because it’s a human need and it will never go to zero (wealth preservation). I remain sceptical of continued price growth (or at lease real price growth). However, I acknowledge that yes, the game is rigged for boomers but what choice do I have? Getting a bad return on real estate is better than doing nothing. If you want to get more (smart) millennials on board you need to address this stuff.

 

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

 

Episode 307 | The Budget Wrap And Is The Property Market Leaving Clues?

The Federal Budget has just been announced… so what does this mean for you and the property market?

Folks, in this episode we’re diving deep on the new Budget (one of the most important budgets since the Great Depression!) AND, most excitingly, something else that’s absorbing our thoughts right now…

The Property Market Is Now Leaving Clues…!

That’s right. The ducks are lining up… which means Positive News For The Property Market!

The question is… are you ready to hear if Australia’s economy is really “on the mend” and what’s coming next for the property market?!

If so, you’re about to find out!

(… What an episode!)

P.S Life Hack brought to you by our listener, Colin Lau! Send Bryce your own Life Hack here.

 

Free Stuff Mentioned…

Here’s a bit of what we cover…

  • The Budget: What’s In It For You and The Property Market
  • The Key Insights from the Big 2020 Budget
  • Why has the Treasury taken these measures?
  • When The Ducks Line Up: Why Is It “Positive News” For Property?
  • Why is the property market so resilient?
  • How much is the economy going to decline for the rest of the year?
  • When Will The Recession End?
  • Why the “Instant Asset Ride-Offs” have a ripple effect…
  • New Buying incentives Announced..
  • When will we see a vaccine for COVID-19?
  • How much will you get from the Tax Cuts?
  • Playing To Win vs Playing Not To Lose
  • How do you work out the “Fair Value” of property prices?
  • New Lending Laws – Why is it in your favour to be credible for your lending?
  • The Immigration Story…
  • “Jobs, Jobs, Jobs”… what does this even look like??
  • The 12 – 24 month outlook for property (and why it should make you smile)

 

 

 

Episode 234 | Have We Bottomed Out Sooner Than We Thought? The Exclusive Data Insights from Louis Christopher from SQM Research

Well, well, well…. Have we hit the bottom of the market folks???

In the shadows of the election — aka the Coalition’s surprise victory — it appears that confidence has returned to the property market!

And now the crystal ball question — “When’s the bottom of the property market happening?”may not be as cryptic (or as distant from us!!) as we first thought!

So. What do we mean by this?

Well, let’s put it another way… We jumped on a plane last week especially to bring you back the insights from today’s guest!!! And you just might recognise him —Louis Christopher the Director of SQM Research and one of Australia’s most respected and impartial Research Property Analysts. He has extensive knowledge and experience of property and is regular quoted in the media on his insights!

And he’s NOT afraid to tell it like it is.

So… what’s his latest data suggesting?

Before you meet the man behind the media and get to hear his forecasts, we just want to remind you that, yes, even though PICA likely had a bit of an impact on the election results, our work on behalf of all Australian property investors is by no means done.

And as Ben talks about in today’s show —- there’s obvious MUCH more PICA’s aiming to achieve, so if you’d like to become a member for as little as $5, please Become a Member Today.

Is something stopping you from joining PICA? Let Ben know here.

Here’s what we discuss in today’s episode:

  • What happened with Louis’s grandma that made him interested in property?
  • What’d he do to make his tenants pay rent on time? (Warning: not for everyone!)
  • What used to happen in the data space?
  • Why was there controversy starting SQM?
  • What data was he desperate to get his hands on? How’d they get it?
  • What does SQM stand for?
  • What else do they measure aside from property data?
  • How do they pick the turning point of the market place?
  • How often do they “get it right”?
  • Are the observations coming out from the election revealing a trend?
  • What does he see happening in the next 2 – 4 years?
  • And what had he modelled if Liberal was re-elected?
  • How has the uncertainty of the market been lifted?
  • How will APRA’s recent changes affect the property market?
  • Will the RBA cut their rate by MORE than 25 basis points next month?
  • What are the issues with Auction Clearance Rates?
  • Can they forecast for Capital Growth?
  • What do they use at a locality level vs the macro level?
  • How does he measure fair market value?
  • Is it a good idea to have a market that’s totally dependent on housing?
  • Is the Australian economy looking up?
  • Why’s it hard to create inflation if there is so much debt?
  • What happened to rents and construction levels in 1985?
  • What makes for a good economy?
  • The First Home Buyers Deposit Scheme: Will it have a material or immaterial impact on the property market?
  • What do we think of the NRAS scheme?
  • Is it time to invest in Perth??
  • Does a rental market predict that capital growth will likely happen?

AND THE BIGGIE…

  • When’s the bottom of the market likely going to happen?

Episode 233 | Is it Tick, Tick… Boom? Post Election & Off the Plan Pain with Angie Zigomanis from BIS Oxford Economics

Well, folks — Australia’s officially had their say after Saturday’s voting spree… and The Coalition are holding tight on their power for another term! Which surprised a lot of us. BUT there is a silver lining…

… Negative Gearing has survived another day!!

Which basically means… NO dumb policy is about to cripple the property market any time soon!!

But the question remains… what are we in for now??

Joining us today is Angie Zigomanis, Senior Manager at BIS Oxford Economics and he’s got his binoculars pointing to the horizon… because the data he’s been scrutinising is exposing a LOT about what we’re about the see unfold in the property market!

The big picture??

Off the Plan properties…. !!!

Resources mentioned in today’s show:

Oh, and if you’re around tonight folks, tune in to Escape From the CityBryce is on ABC TV TONIGHT at 8:00PM!

Here’s what you’re in for…

  • Our election stories: how’d we get the news?
  • Where does BIS Oxford Economics sit in the economic arena?
  • And how many different countries do they analyse?
  • What did they discover about negative gearing changes prior to the election?
  • What happened to the stock market AFTER the election?
  • What’s likely to happen with business confidence as a result?
  • How is the First Home Buyers Deposit going to affect the property market?
  • What’s happening with construction?
  • Will we start to see economic growth?
  • How likely is it that the RBA is going to DROP their cash rate next month?
  • What did Governor Phillip Lowe state in his press conference on Tuesday?
  • What have APRA done with their assessment rate?
  • What’s the latest with the US/China Trade Talks?
  • How might the Australian economy be affected by this?
  • PERILS OF OFF THE PLAN: What is the data revealing about Off the Plan Properties?
  • In Melbourne alone, how many were sold at a loss?
  • Who is most likely to be the second buyer of Off the Plan properties?
  • What may happen to developments in future?

Is affordability a real issue?

Episode 225 | Breaking News with Dr Shane Oliver – Are We in Store for a Global Recession?

Folks, we have a very special guest on today … Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital!! (Ben was a bit giddy, ha!)

So, if you’re keen to hear the latest economic news across the property AND stock market, or you want the intel on how the cogs of the economy run … then you’d best hit play on this one!

To give you an idea, Shane Oliver is responsible for determining AMP Capital’s investment strategy and asset allocation and also provides economic forecasts and analysis to the asset class portfolio managers. And chances are, you’ve seen his face somewhere in the news because Shane is also a regular media commentator on major economic and investment market issues and has been with AMP for over 30 years!

And he’s not just an expert on this stuff, he’s also excellent at breaking down complex economic updates into simplified, bite-sized pieces!

Oh, and as mentioned on today’s show, he’s often providing live updates on Twitter, so if you’re keen to get his economic insights his twitter handle is @ShaneOliverAMP

 

Other resources mentioned in today’s show…

(And, don’t forget… CLICK HERE to Find Out About our AFL Competition – Epic Prizes!)

 

So… What are you in for?

 

 

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