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Episode 196 | Q & A – Negative Gearing Changes – Should I Still Invest in Property?

“Labor risks $12bn housing hit over ending negative gearing” — if you’re like us folks… this headline has us all concerned!!

And the concern didn’t stop at the headline.

As we read on, the full news article, published by The Australian on the weekend, highlighted that the $32 billion plan to end negative gearing would — quote — lead to a fall in new housing construction of up to 42,000 dwellings over five years and 32,000 fewer jobs across the country, according to independent modelling — end quote.

Yep… that’s a drop in a whole lot of new housing construction (ie. supply) AND just a-bit-more-than-a-few losses (up to 32,000) in jobs!!

Folks… this is crazy stuff.

And those stats aren’t the only ones coming out of recent independent research digging into the numbers of what’s likely to happen if negative gearing’s ditched.

So, today we’re looking at a few of the worst-case scenarios from two different reports (the links to both of these are further down in the show notes) and unpacking — with both a short term and long term view — how this change to negative gearing might affect the property market and those investing in it.

But negative gearing changes — and the possible consequences on housing prices and for first home buyers — isn’t the only question we’re answering today! We’ve got plenty of gold on how to time your exist strategy, retiring debt and the right asset to invest in!

 

Oh, and if you’d like the Geospatial Heat Notes — the heat map that shows the Compounding Annual Growth in Median Value for Houses from 1974 till the end of 2017 that is sourced from the Valuer General data —  you can get them here.

 

Back to today’s Q’s…

Question about Negative Gearing Changes from Shadi:
Hey Bryce and Ben. Thank you for all the information and for all the podcasts you provide. Apologies in advance if this question has been answered in previous episodes. I’ve been binging myself since episode 1 a few months ago, and am not quite up to date yet. I just have a question specifically about the abolishment of negative gearing and the impact it will have on first time investors. I’ve been looking to invest since listening to your podcast, and am interested to hear how this will affect my first purchase — whether or not it will just be a short term problem that effects cash flow or if it will have a long term effect, especially when entering the market.

 

Question about Your Exit Strategy from Anne-Marie:
Hi guys, this is Anne-Marie in Victoria. I’m 56 and my husband is 51. I started listening to you many years ago after we had our 7 properties. Our last property was 3 years ago. There all on fixed term interest only, which makes no offset available to them. And we’ve paid off our home, which is worth 1.1 million (1 of the 7 properties). It takes us $13,000 a year to hold all the properties, we just put our tax in, which is amazing. So property has done really well for us, and the mortgage we have on all of them is about 2.5 million, with domain value being low sitting at $3.9 mill, and high $5.2 with middle there all about 4.6 million. I want to start going into doing less hours at work — I’d like to retire on a passive income in maybe 4 years’ time. How do you transition to get the passive income we’ll need for retirement without too much of a tax liability? I paid about $10K in tax this year and I really don’t want to be paying a lot of tax while I’m getting to this point. Can you give me any pointers? And I can’t have an offset account as I said. I’d like some advice on this.

 

Question about the Right Asset for a First Home Buyer from Carrie:
I have a question about the best type of asset you should invest in. I’m looking to buy my first property, which I’ll live in initially. I have a budget of $750K. I’ve been looking at 70s and 80s free standing villa units in small blocks of 12 – 6 in Melbourne’s east. This puts me in middle ring suburbs around 20km from the city, with a land size of 350sqm. It’s a good balance between decent landmass without being out in the sticks. Alternatively, I could by a 2bdrm apt in an older, low density block — the type with only 2 or 3 stories closer to the CBD. Are either of these good investments? And which of the two is better? Or is there anything else I should look into. Love your work guys, keep bringing out those podcasts! Thank you

 

 

The Articles Ben mentions:

The Australian Article — Labor risks $12bn housing hit over ending negative gearing

Housing Industry Association (HIA) — Media Release

 

Episode 180 | Building A Portfolio in a Changing Market – LIVE Q & A in Melbourne

The Australian property market collapsing. Housing market under the pump. Melbourne’s property downfall. House sales hit new low…

… folks, with headlines like these, we may as well call it a day, bid you farewell in a foreign language like old times, and exchange the ol’ investor returns for an earlier-than-planned retirement!

Wait, why would we say such a thing?

Well, you might’ve noticed — the market’s corrected and it’s making a LOT of folks out there nervous! And why shouldn’t it?

You don’t want to fork out the big bucks (probably the most you’ve ever spent) on a property that’s going to end in little-to-no return come market crash, right? Not to mention, you don’t want this said “investment” to wind up in an economic tsunami, which by the way, WILL happen when life follows the fate of a catchy news headline.

So… is that what’s really what’s happening here? Is the market seriously “bottoming out”… because, as far as we see it folks, we’re sitting pretty happy where we are!

BUT for the record folks, there ARE things you need to keep in mind come a market correction (whether you’re a current investor or just getting started)… so, what do you need to know?

We shared all of the exclusive hacks and current market news in our Melbourne LIVE Podcast last week… and we’re bringing the love to you right now!

 

Before we get into what you can expect out of today’s show, just a few quick shout-outs…

Are you coming to see us at the Melbourne Property Buyer’s Expo??

GET YOUR FREE TICKET NOW – Listener Discount Code: COUCH

Yep, if you want to learn heaps more about property investing, meet us and leave your wallet at home (in other words: spend ZERO money)… you should come and see us at the Melbourne Property Buyers Expo!

  • Saturday, 12:30 PM – Ben on How to achieve financial peace with five properties or less!
  • Saturday, 2:30 PM – The Property Couch with Greville Prabst, Executive Chairman of WBP Property Group and Judge on Nine Network’s The Block.
  • Sunday, 10:00 AM – Special Length Masterclass – Ben and Bryce with Special Guest to talk about Buying your First Home / Investment Property
  • Sunday, 12:30 PM – Bryce on 7 Ways to Build a Property Portfolio in a Changing Market
  • >> Learn more about each of the session here!

And…

 

Property Investors Council of Australia (PICA) is COMING TO YOU. Well, provided you live in Melbourne or Sydney! Meet and Greet includes a Q&A Session followed by a brief networking session. And old mate (and Chair of PICA) Ben Kingsley will be hosting!

Meet and Greet Sydney
Thursday 12 July 6:45PM – 8:30PM
GET FREE SYDNEY TICKET: PICA’s Meet and Greet

Meet and Greet Melbourne
Thursday 19 July 6:00PM – 8:00PM
GET FREE MELBOURNE TICKET: PICA’s Meet and Greet

 

BACK TO TODAY’S SHOW… What’s behind the headlines??

 

 

 

Episode 169 | Alan Oster – NAB’s Group Chief Economist – on Interest-Rate Rise, Tax Cut and The Future of Residential Property

Let’s get down to business, folks! Today we’re tackling the past, present and future of Australia’s economy…

And who better to help us out than Alan Oster, Group Chief Economist of the National Australia Bank (NAB)!

Alan sure knows his stuff, folks — as Group Chief Economist, Alan is responsible for NAB’s global economic and financial forecasts. Not to mention, before he started at NAB (which was in 1992, mind you), he worked as Senior Adviser in Treasury specialising in economic forecasting and modelling for an impressive 15 years. Oh, and in 1987 he was seconded for nearly four years as Counsellor-Economic and Financial with Australia’s delegation to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development — OECD — in Paris.

Yes, he’s definitely the man you want to speak to if you’ve got a question about Australia’s economy!

 

Hold on to your seat folks cause here’s what you’re in for:

  • Where is the economy going in the next 12 – 18 months?
  • Rather than mortgage stress, what’s the number one issue at present?
  • What’s going to happen, on average, to house prices?
  • Will your wage increase any time soon?
  • Federal Budget 2018: What’s in store and will we see tax cuts?
  • Who will struggle most with postcode restrictions?
  • What needs to happen to benefit the economy?
  • Is the Australian economy going to be better or worse?
  • How do foreign buyers and the Chinese market fit in?
  • Will APRA keep tightening the lending regulations?
  • When’s the cash rate likely going to increase?
  • Is inflation on the rise?
  • What’s in store for interest-only loans?
  • What’s happening in the US with the 10-year bond rates?
  • Why do banks care about outer city living and inner city living?
  • Is the demand in Sydney and Melbourne slowing?
  • What’s the riskiest sector should unemployment starts to rise?
  • What’s the difference between “the bricks” and the “the clicks”?
  • What do banks ALWAYS look for before handing out loans?
  • Who owns most of the apartments in the capital cities and what are his thoughts on the future of the apartment market?
  • What about the second-tier cities (Brisbane, Adelaide etc.)
  • Which states are having the fastest rental growth?
  • Is Perth now an investment-grade location?
  • Where would Alan invest his money?
  • What happened when then Treasurer Paul Keating removed negative gearing?
  • What will be the economic impact and consequences if negative gearing is removed again at the current time?
  • How should we tackle housing affordability?

 

p.s. Looking for the special reports mentioned in today’s show?

 

Episode 162 | Q&A – Second-tier Lenders, Brisbane’s units market and the order in Investment Assumptions (PLUS a special appearance from Jeremy Sheppard)

We have a couple of treats in store for you today, folks!!

Not only is it Q & A Day — we know: it seems like forever since we had one, and we love ‘em!! — we’ve also created A BRAND NEW SEGMENT, which is kicking off on the Couch TODAY.

Yep. Think property markets. Think sneak peak. Think data!

Actually, speaking of data, joining us for a portion of today’s episode (hint, hint) is Jeremy Sheppard! He’s our other third of LocationScore.com.au and the pioneer of the DSR Formula, which collects, analyses and researches the level of supply and demand across every market and 15,000 suburbs in Australia!

(You would have heard his insights back on Episode 125 | Everything You Need to Know about Picking the Next Hotspot — Chat with Jeremy Sheppard or on our last Facebook Live!)

 

…. What will be covered from today’s questions?

  • Should you invest in a Brisbane unit?
  • What are the pros and cons of second-tier lenders?
  • Are the assumptions about property investing making you confused?

Alright folks, before we kick off the questions, you’ll notice soon that all of them are voice recorded messages! Yep, we’re officially prioritising all of our questions that come in through our SpeakPipe widget! So leave us a quick, 60 second voicemail here!

 

Question about Investment Assumptions from Matthew:

“I’m wondering if you guys can take a moment and reflect on the investment assumptions in property, particularly on stuff like, “Hey, you should always buy in this order for capital gains: you should by a free standing house, and then a townhouse or a free standing house and a duplex and a townhouse and an apartment”… all of these investment based assumptions, which are general rules of investing in property. It’d be good to examine when they’re true and when they’re not true with different cases. I look forward to your answer. Cheers guys!”

 

Question about Investing in Brisbane Units from Pia:

“I’m a 31 year-old single woman from Brisbane with a budget of $360,000. My question is about the Brisbane unit market.
My priority is investment and I’m open when it comes to the location or type of property I purchase, but ideally I’d like to buy a place I can live in for the short to medium term, and a Brisbane unit is the best fit in that regard. I’ve been looking a 2br, 1 – 2 bathroom units in a 3 – 10km radius of the city in older boutique blocks. I’ve heard all of the warnings about the oversupply of apartments in the Brisbane market at the moment, but I’m wondering if this is the time when “Others are fearful and I should be greedy”? Where do you think we are in the market cycle? Are Brisbane units about to go up in value or are we still looking at another couple of years of downward or flat growth?

 

Question about Second-tier Lenders from James:

“My question is there have been a lot of media articles and posts around lenders outside of the big four banks, or second-tier lenders…. What are the Pros and Cons of using these lenders?”

 

 

And our chat with Jeremy Sheppard?

  • Why there’s not much data in January?
  • Recapping what is Online Search Interest and should investors be worry about the impact the season would have on the property market?
  • What’s the BIG NEWS on Perth??
  • Auction Clearance Rates and who are the outperformers and underperformers in this cycle?
  • How’s the month to month trend for each of the state?
  • What does Adelaide and Gold Coast’s property market trend have in common?
  • How about Days on Market data for February 2018?

 

P.S. Leave us a Voicemail Message here.

P.P.S. Want to find the best locations to invest in? REGISTER FOR A FREE WEBINAR here!

 

 

Episode 156 | Tim Lawless – Property Outlook 2018 with CoreLogic’s Director of Research

We promised you a market outlook last week….. so, folks, we had to deliver!

Yep! This week on the Couch, we’ve wrangled in Tim Lawless, CoreLogic‘s executive research director for Australasia, who heads up the Data Research and Analytics team, analysing and interpreting real estate, demographic and economic trends across the country! He’s one of Australia’s leading property market commentators, so…..

In a nutshell: Tim knows his stuff.

For our newer listeners, Tim no stranger of the Couch. Back in Episode 90, he joined us to chat about the impact of Donald Trump on the Australian Property Market. So what’s in store this year for each state and capital in Australia?

Tune in…… you’re about to find out!!

 

Before we jump in and tell you the property outlook 2018, Bryce wants to remind you to send in your Android Life Hack (please and thank you) so we can even the playfield with the iPhone users! Just email it in to info@thepropertycouch.com.au!

 

Okay, so today’s big questions are:

  • What’s in store for the Australian property market?
  • Is there going to be a significant shock?
  • What’s up with the economy? (Think, “Will your wage increase?” and interest rates!)

 

Now, let’s drill it down to Capital Cities:

*** Scroll down for the city you’re most interested in ***

Melbourne

Sydney

  • What are the tips and trends happening in Sydney?
  • How much has the market fallen and how much more will it fall?
  • What areas are holding their value?
  • Which quartile is coming down the most?
  • Will Sydney bust now that it’s peaked?
  • Are first home buyers entering the market?
  • What is the median value for houses and units?
  • How will the lending restrictions affect the market?
  • Are yields increasing?

Brisbane

Perth

  • Is there growth happening in Perth?
  • Are the investment stock levels reducing?
  • How many new listings are there?
  • Is it on our radar?
  • Where are the vacancy rates highest?
  • What signs should you look for?

Hobart

  • Is it a sustainable market?
  • What sort of investor should you be in the Hobart market?
  • What are the investment trends?
  • How much of the market is investment driven?
  • Who is buying in Hobart?
  • Will there be investment opportunities coming up?

Adelaide


Canberra

Darwin

  • Is Darwin showing signs of turning around?
  • What’s happening with the yields?
  • Are buyer numbers increasing?
  • How many new listings are there? How do they compare to Melbourne & Sydney?

 

p.s. Looking for the CoreLogic January 2018 Chart Pack? Download it here!

 

 

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