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Episode 336 | Is Price Growth Over? 7 Signs Growth Is Slowing – Chat with Tim Lawless

Is the property market showing signs that growth is SLOWING?

Well, according to Tim Lawless, Head of Research at CoreLogic, it IS – and there are 7 tell-tale signs it’s happening!

That’s right. Joining us today is CoreLogic‘s executive research director for Australasia and indeed one of Australia’s leading property market commentators – and Tim’s noticed quite a few interesting trends in the data that reveal a SLOWDOWN on the strongest growth conditions we’ve seen since the 1980s!

So… is price growth over!?!

And what are the seven signs that suggest capital growth might be changing pace?

 

The 7 Signs…

    1. CoreLogic Home Value Index is already indicating __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
    2. Lower __ __
    3. Rise in __ __
    4. A lift in __ __ __
    5. Negative __ __
    6. Less __
    7. High __ __ __

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

02:18 – Will legislation changes in Victoria affect Airbnb properties?

04:15 – Full Summary of How To Win Friends & Influence People!

07:01 – Meet Tim!

08:04 – Was Tim surprised how much the market bounced back?

09:42 – Why is the housing market so important for Australia’s economy?

11:51 – Why do we generally see the government supporting property when there is a downturn?

13:37 – The Multiplier Effect & The Wealth Effect

14:43 – What’s the biggest barrier to the property market?

15:04 – Does Treasury and Government look at the risks of LVR’s and overall debt?

15:36 – The 4 Key Metrics APRA Monitors Very Closely…

16:15 – Will there be credit tightening coming soon?

18:23 – What would this credit tightening look like?

20:53 – The 7 Signs the housing market is moving through peak growth…

21:39 – What’s the catalyst that normally causes a slowdown?

23:56Sign #1 – What’s the hedonic value measuring?

26:47 – Which capital cities are showing this slowdown (and which ones AREN’T)!?!

27:01 – Is this a DOWNWARD trajectory… or just a slowdown in growth?

29:44 – Sign #2 – What’s happening with Auction Clearance Rates?

32:17 – Sign #3 – What’s rising?

34:08 – Sign #4 – What’s lifting that’s contributing to the slowing growth?

35:50 – What’s happening with high rise developments?

36:05 – Unit oversupply: What’s going on?

36:40 – How many investors buy mid to high rise apartments?

38:04 – When will inner city apartments bounce back?

39:05 – If there’s not as many investors in the market, will APRA still need to intervene?

40:20 – Why is the level of household debt so closely monitored?

42:10 – Serviceability assessments…

42:38 – Sign #5 – Negative Population Growth… let’s unpack it!

43:17 – How have property prices grown WITHOUT population growth, anyway?

46:39 – Sign #6 – When Fiscal Support gets taken out of the economy…

49:05 – Why does the government offer grants for NEW properties, not existing?

50:54 – Sign #7 – Where Housing Affordability Comes In…

52:21 – How long does it take to save a deposit across the different states?

56:48 – When was the last time we saw all markets rising like we have?

58:04 – How is CoreLogic measuring the shift to regional markets?

 

And

1:02:10 – Key Takeaway from the episode…

 

 

Episode 334 | Bernard Salt: The BIG Shift In Australian Property!

If you listen to just one episode, please make it this one!

Folks, today we are chatting with one of our very own virtual mentors (of all time!)… BERNARD SALT!!

Yep. You’ve probably heard us talking about Bernard on the podcast before – indeed, he has formed a lot of our own views about where the demand for property is heading.

In a nutshell: if there is one person on earth who deeply understands the intricacies of Australians and what drives people 1) to this country, and 2) to make specific property and lifestyle decisions, it is this man!

(And if you know these insights… you’ll begin to see where the property price increases are likely to occur, right?!!)

It obviously goes without saying that over the decades we’ve absolutely read and reread (and dog-eared the pages) of Bernard’s highly-regarded book (just one of many) called “The Big Shift”.

Yep. Big Guest.

Bernard Salt is widely regarded as one of Australia’s leading social commentators by business, the media and the broader community. He draws on a range of data sets to interpret social change now into the future. He argues that social and cultural change are powerful forces that are reshaping the way we live, the way we work and even how we form relationships. He was awarded the Member of the Order of Australia (AM) in the 2017 Australia Day Honours and was a partner of KPMG until his retirement in June 2017, and still acts as a special advisor to the firm. Between 2011 and 2019 he was an adjunct professor at Curtin University Business School.

Now Bernard is the Managing Director of The Demographics Group, and he writes weekly columns for The Australian that deal with social, generational and demographic matters.

Essentially… Bernard is the Go-To Guru on how statistics tell human stories and what the data suggests about key future trends!

Tune in now – ripper episode, folks! 🤸‍♂️

 

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

 

 

 

Episode 069 | Q&A – Where is that sweet spot between Growth and Yield, investing in metro or regional and more

It’s Questions and Answers time! This week, Bryce and Ben looks at the questions below. Thanks again for submitting your questions!:

 

  • Question on Growth and Yield from Steve: Anyhow, a question for the podcast. Growth and yield are like a sea saw. As one goes up, the other goes down. Where I wonder is that sweet spot? Where both balance nicely and their feet dangle without touching the ground? For example, the best growth may be on Sydney Harbour with a view, but you may be negative $1,000 a week. So you go one suburb back, negative $800 a week. So you go one more back negative $600 a week. At some point you must hit a spot where you say, that’s the best growth I can afford. How do you decide that sweet spot? Is it different for all investors? Even if James Packer said to you, “Get me the best growth you can, income is not a problem” would there still be a point where you think, “Geez, even if we buy him a house on the harbour, the growth still won’t cover that massive shortfall over time.”Great show, keep it up. You are both a shining light in a dodgy, unregulated shark-filled industry. After all, my experience with people who talk very confidently but don’t know what they’re doing, (the enthusiastic amateur you effectively call them) I came up with my own saying, “Confidence does not equal competence“. Unfortunately, all you need is a little doubt in your own abilities and you default to the more confident person, who you may well know more than.
  • Question on Metro or Regional from James: I am looking to invest in my second property with my partner, we live in a rural area (Albury/Wodonga) and have around $100,000 in equity in our current owner occupied dwelling and good incomes with a maximum borrowing capacity of around $700-800k. Do you suggest trying to break into a Metro market (i.e. Melbourne) with a property in an investment grade suburb, which will in turn max out our borrowing capacity, or alternatively buy 1-2 properties in a major rural city?
  • Question on forecasting capital growth from Kayne: Just have one question in regards to forecasting Capital growth. I know you are conservative with your vacancy and interest rate assumptions (7.5% & 10% respectively) in your models. Are you also conservative in your CG assumptions (e.g if historical growth was ‘x’ would you round down a percent or 2 or keep it the same?) if you’ve covered this and I’ve missed it sorry for the double up, if not I look forward to your answer.
  • Question on active investing from Brian: Hi guys love the podcast immensely! If possible could you discuss views on being able to be an active investor to essentially create an income while still passively investing through leverage? Is this a possible scenario or what would someone need to look into to be able to do something similar…. I’m a tradesman so majority of the work I could do myself. Thanks very much!

 

Some of the resources mentioned in this podcast:

  • Report from CoreLogic : A profile of the Australian Investor – Who, Where and What? – Download here
  • Episode 37 | Understanding the Scarcity factor in Property Investment – Listen here
  • Case Demonstration: 4% Growth and 6% Yield vs. 6% Growth and 4% Yield – Watch here
  • Episode 51 | Will Labor’s proposed changes to Negative Gearing policy be good or bad for ordinary Australians? – Listen here

 

If you like this Q&A episode (Where is that sweet spot between Growth and Yield, investing in metro or regional and more), don’t forget to rate us on our iTunes channel (The Property Couch Podcast) and our Facebook page. Any questions or ideas? Feel free to drop us your thoughts here: http://tpcaustralia.wpengine.com/topics/

Episode 007 | Studio or One Bedroom Apartment as an Investment Property

Ep 007 - Studio or One Bedroom Apartment as an Investment Property - The Property Couch - Property Investing in AustraliaIn this episode, Bryce and Ben answered one of our listener’s question on whether studios or one bedroom apartments are good investment properties. This a great question and is often asked by many especially when we are seeing a surge in apartments around the city area. Technically, we are looking at this question in two parts. The first part is about understanding whether a studio or one bedroom apartment is a good choice of investment? And the second part is; are they are good investments if they are in the city?

Before we start discussing their potential as investment properties, we also need to understand the difference between a studio and one bedroom apartment. Bryce and Ben started this podcast by defining these types of asset class, the regulations surrounding them and how do they fare as an investment property. Listen to this podcast to find out more.

Also, The Property Couch is close to 1,000 downloads for our podcast! Thanks to all our listeners and don’t be shy to leave a review or rate us in the iTunes store or our Facebook page to spread the word! If you have any questions or ideas like Matt does, feel free to drop us your thoughts here: http://tpcaustralia.wpengine.com/topics/ and we will discuss about it at our upcoming podcasts.

Episode 004 | Four Pillars of Mastery – Borrowing Power

Episode 004 of The Property Couch is a continuation of our Four Pillars of Mastery series. Last episode we talked about Cash Flow Management and how it is the first step to your property investment journey. Bryce Holdaway and Ben Kingsley also shared a Flow of Money diagram to illustrate their points. In this episode, they talked about the Borrowing Power. Once you know how much surplus you have at the end of each month then the next step it to know how high is your borrowing power so you can go ahead and buy an investment property. But it’s not as easy as going into a bank or a mortgage broker and get a loan set up. It’s never easy, isn’t it?

If you are serious about building wealth via property investment, then you need to make sure you plan ahead in terms of choosing the right package and structuring your loan correctly. Listen to this episode to find out more on borrowing power and if you like it, don’t forget to rate us at our iTunes channel (The Property Couch Podcast) and our Facebook page. If you have any ideas, feel free to drop us your thoughts here: http://tpcaustralia.wpengine.com/topics/

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