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Episode 336 | Is Price Growth Over? 7 Signs Growth Is Slowing – Chat with Tim Lawless

Is the property market showing signs that growth is SLOWING?

Well, according to Tim Lawless, Head of Research at CoreLogic, it IS – and there are 7 tell-tale signs it’s happening!

That’s right. Joining us today is CoreLogic‘s executive research director for Australasia and indeed one of Australia’s leading property market commentators – and Tim’s noticed quite a few interesting trends in the data that reveal a SLOWDOWN on the strongest growth conditions we’ve seen since the 1980s!

So… is price growth over!?!

And what are the seven signs that suggest capital growth might be changing pace?

 

The 7 Signs…

    1. CoreLogic Home Value Index is already indicating __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
    2. Lower __ __
    3. Rise in __ __
    4. A lift in __ __ __
    5. Negative __ __
    6. Less __
    7. High __ __ __

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

02:18 – Will legislation changes in Victoria affect Airbnb properties?

04:15 – Full Summary of How To Win Friends & Influence People!

07:01 – Meet Tim!

08:04 – Was Tim surprised how much the market bounced back?

09:42 – Why is the housing market so important for Australia’s economy?

11:51 – Why do we generally see the government supporting property when there is a downturn?

13:37 – The Multiplier Effect & The Wealth Effect

14:43 – What’s the biggest barrier to the property market?

15:04 – Does Treasury and Government look at the risks of LVR’s and overall debt?

15:36 – The 4 Key Metrics APRA Monitors Very Closely…

16:15 – Will there be credit tightening coming soon?

18:23 – What would this credit tightening look like?

20:53 – The 7 Signs the housing market is moving through peak growth…

21:39 – What’s the catalyst that normally causes a slowdown?

23:56Sign #1 – What’s the hedonic value measuring?

26:47 – Which capital cities are showing this slowdown (and which ones AREN’T)!?!

27:01 – Is this a DOWNWARD trajectory… or just a slowdown in growth?

29:44 – Sign #2 – What’s happening with Auction Clearance Rates?

32:17 – Sign #3 – What’s rising?

34:08 – Sign #4 – What’s lifting that’s contributing to the slowing growth?

35:50 – What’s happening with high rise developments?

36:05 – Unit oversupply: What’s going on?

36:40 – How many investors buy mid to high rise apartments?

38:04 – When will inner city apartments bounce back?

39:05 – If there’s not as many investors in the market, will APRA still need to intervene?

40:20 – Why is the level of household debt so closely monitored?

42:10 – Serviceability assessments…

42:38 – Sign #5 – Negative Population Growth… let’s unpack it!

43:17 – How have property prices grown WITHOUT population growth, anyway?

46:39 – Sign #6 – When Fiscal Support gets taken out of the economy…

49:05 – Why does the government offer grants for NEW properties, not existing?

50:54 – Sign #7 – Where Housing Affordability Comes In…

52:21 – How long does it take to save a deposit across the different states?

56:48 – When was the last time we saw all markets rising like we have?

58:04 – How is CoreLogic measuring the shift to regional markets?

 

And

1:02:10 – Key Takeaway from the episode…

 

 

Episode 334 | Bernard Salt: The BIG Shift In Australian Property!

If you listen to just one episode, please make it this one!

Folks, today we are chatting with one of our very own virtual mentors (of all time!)… BERNARD SALT!!

Yep. You’ve probably heard us talking about Bernard on the podcast before – indeed, he has formed a lot of our own views about where the demand for property is heading.

In a nutshell: if there is one person on earth who deeply understands the intricacies of Australians and what drives people 1) to this country, and 2) to make specific property and lifestyle decisions, it is this man!

(And if you know these insights… you’ll begin to see where the property price increases are likely to occur, right?!!)

It obviously goes without saying that over the decades we’ve absolutely read and reread (and dog-eared the pages) of Bernard’s highly-regarded book (just one of many) called “The Big Shift”.

Yep. Big Guest.

Bernard Salt is widely regarded as one of Australia’s leading social commentators by business, the media and the broader community. He draws on a range of data sets to interpret social change now into the future. He argues that social and cultural change are powerful forces that are reshaping the way we live, the way we work and even how we form relationships. He was awarded the Member of the Order of Australia (AM) in the 2017 Australia Day Honours and was a partner of KPMG until his retirement in June 2017, and still acts as a special advisor to the firm. Between 2011 and 2019 he was an adjunct professor at Curtin University Business School.

Now Bernard is the Managing Director of The Demographics Group, and he writes weekly columns for The Australian that deal with social, generational and demographic matters.

Essentially… Bernard is the Go-To Guru on how statistics tell human stories and what the data suggests about key future trends!

Tune in now – ripper episode, folks! 🤸‍♂️

 

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

 

 

 

Episode 069 | Q&A – Where is that sweet spot between Growth and Yield, investing in metro or regional and more

It’s Questions and Answers time! This week, Bryce and Ben looks at the questions below. Thanks again for submitting your questions!:

 

  • Question on Growth and Yield from Steve: Anyhow, a question for the podcast. Growth and yield are like a sea saw. As one goes up, the other goes down. Where I wonder is that sweet spot? Where both balance nicely and their feet dangle without touching the ground? For example, the best growth may be on Sydney Harbour with a view, but you may be negative $1,000 a week. So you go one suburb back, negative $800 a week. So you go one more back negative $600 a week. At some point you must hit a spot where you say, that’s the best growth I can afford. How do you decide that sweet spot? Is it different for all investors? Even if James Packer said to you, “Get me the best growth you can, income is not a problem” would there still be a point where you think, “Geez, even if we buy him a house on the harbour, the growth still won’t cover that massive shortfall over time.”Great show, keep it up. You are both a shining light in a dodgy, unregulated shark-filled industry. After all, my experience with people who talk very confidently but don’t know what they’re doing, (the enthusiastic amateur you effectively call them) I came up with my own saying, “Confidence does not equal competence“. Unfortunately, all you need is a little doubt in your own abilities and you default to the more confident person, who you may well know more than.
  • Question on Metro or Regional from James: I am looking to invest in my second property with my partner, we live in a rural area (Albury/Wodonga) and have around $100,000 in equity in our current owner occupied dwelling and good incomes with a maximum borrowing capacity of around $700-800k. Do you suggest trying to break into a Metro market (i.e. Melbourne) with a property in an investment grade suburb, which will in turn max out our borrowing capacity, or alternatively buy 1-2 properties in a major rural city?
  • Question on forecasting capital growth from Kayne: Just have one question in regards to forecasting Capital growth. I know you are conservative with your vacancy and interest rate assumptions (7.5% & 10% respectively) in your models. Are you also conservative in your CG assumptions (e.g if historical growth was ‘x’ would you round down a percent or 2 or keep it the same?) if you’ve covered this and I’ve missed it sorry for the double up, if not I look forward to your answer.
  • Question on active investing from Brian: Hi guys love the podcast immensely! If possible could you discuss views on being able to be an active investor to essentially create an income while still passively investing through leverage? Is this a possible scenario or what would someone need to look into to be able to do something similar…. I’m a tradesman so majority of the work I could do myself. Thanks very much!

 

Some of the resources mentioned in this podcast:

  • Report from CoreLogic : A profile of the Australian Investor – Who, Where and What? – Download here
  • Episode 37 | Understanding the Scarcity factor in Property Investment – Listen here
  • Case Demonstration: 4% Growth and 6% Yield vs. 6% Growth and 4% Yield – Watch here
  • Episode 51 | Will Labor’s proposed changes to Negative Gearing policy be good or bad for ordinary Australians? – Listen here

 

If you like this Q&A episode (Where is that sweet spot between Growth and Yield, investing in metro or regional and more), don’t forget to rate us on our iTunes channel (The Property Couch Podcast) and our Facebook page. Any questions or ideas? Feel free to drop us your thoughts here: http://tpcaustralia.wpengine.com/topics/

Episode 007 | Studio or One Bedroom Apartment as an Investment Property

Folks, we’ve been sharing what we believe will make you into successful investors, but today, we’re turning the microphone over to you 

We’re answering one of the FIRST questions we ever received on our podcast from Matt:  

Ep 007 - Studio or One Bedroom Apartment as an Investment Property - The Property Couch - Property Investing in Australia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And what a great question it is! 🏠 

With the rise in apartments in CBDs around Australia, this is a common question we’ve been hearing, and we’re excited to get into the meat of it today!  

We’re breaking it down into HOW these two accommodations differ, the different types of asset classes you can invest in and the regulations around them… 

PLUS, we investigate density and spacing (More importantly, how it can create pesky glass ceilings for you)… 

Whether holiday homes are a better investment (Curveball, right?!)  

 And how lifestyle factors and the fading Great Australia dream impact our response!  

But before we let you jump into today’s episode, we’ve got a huge announcement!

We’re almost at 1,000 downloads!!

Thank you to all our listeners, we appreciate you tuning in each and every week!

And if you’re like Matt and have a question you’d like to ask, send us a voice message through our SpeakPipe (It’s the tab on the bottom right of this page!)

But back to today’s episode…

👉  Tune in now folks, there’s some evergreen wisdom in there!  

 

Free Stuff Mentioned:  

Just starting your property investing journey? Check out our FREE Binge Guide to the Foundations of Property, Finance and Money Management, which show you which episodes you need to understand the basics! Or fill in the form below and we’ll email it to you right away. 

 


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Here’s some of the gold we cover…

  • 1:30 – What’s the difference between a studio and a 1 bedroom?  
  • 2:30 – Why one size doesn’t fit all!  
  • 3:30 – These are ALL factors which impact our answer  
  • 4:05 – Our banks and Valuers are shy around THIS  
  • 5:30 – What Ben predicts will change in Australian markets  
  • 6:18 – What do banks look at? (And how can this put a glass ceiling on YOU)  
  • 7:01 – Our 2 cents on studios  
  • 7:41 – ___ households are the fastest growing in Australia!   
  • 8:00 – How our culture plays a role  
  • 9:55 – Is the Great Australian Dream fading? 
  • 10:50 – How a shift in developer stock and lifestyle factors impacts your choice  
  • 12:20 – There’s no ____ value in medium/high density areas  
  • 13:10 – Mainstream vs non-standard property investing  
  • 14:10 – Why to avoid specialised lending (You need THIS strategy instead!)  
  • 14:45 – The issue with investing in holiday homes  
  • 17:10 – Our verdict: Studio vs. 1 bedroom!   

 

Episode 004 | Four Pillars of Mastery – Borrowing Power

This may be one of the most important factors when investing in property… 

Continuing with our “ABCD” Property Investment Formula which all property investors should master, we’re advancing to B for Borrowing Power!! 

Folks, now that you know how much surplus you have at the end of each month (thanks to the previous episode on Cash Flow Management), the next step is knowing YOUR borrowing power! 

Did you know that having higher borrowing power can greatly increase your accumulated wealth?  

But it’s not always as simple as going to your bank or mortgage broker to set up a loan…

 In fact, many unseen factors can create unwanted “glass ceilings”.  

We’ll cover how to recognise the signs of Borrowing Power and more importantly HOW to increase yours… 

PLUS, we’re unpacking INCOME: how does it affect your suburb’s desirability and value growth, and when did income and property value even become linked?! 

👉 Tune in for the gold!  

 

Free Stuff Mentioned:  

  • Just starting your property investing journey? Check out our FREE Binge Guide to the Foundations of Property, Finance and Money Management, which shows you which episodes you need to understand the basics! Or fill in the form below and we’ll email it to you right away!

    • Are you also interested to have a better understanding of your cashflow position via our FREE Money SMARTS Platform?
    • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

 

Here’s some of the gold we cover…

  • 1:55 – What is Borrowing power (and why is it so important?!)  
  • 3:34 – Don’t make this couple’s mistake! 
  • 4:55 – The relationship between borrowing power and prices  
  • 7:00 – Who actually sets the market price?  
  • 7:38 – The signs of Borrowing Power!  
  • 8:00 – How do occupants affect their suburb’s value?  
  • 10:07 – The rise of The Great Australian Dream!  
  • 11:11 – The 1970s saw THIS positive change 
  • 11:53 – The 1990s, however, were… 
  • 12:40 – Why income is SO important! 
  • 14:34 – Leverage decides ____ class  
  • 15:54 – What is Cash-on-Cash returns?  
  • 16:50 – Cash Flow Management and SENSIBLE Gearing!  
  • 18:00 – How to increase YOUR borrowing power   

 

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