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Episode 336 | Is Price Growth Over? 7 Signs Growth Is Slowing – Chat with Tim Lawless

Is the property market showing signs that growth is SLOWING?

Well, according to Tim Lawless, Head of Research at CoreLogic, it IS – and there are 7 tell-tale signs it’s happening!

That’s right. Joining us today is CoreLogic‘s executive research director for Australasia and indeed one of Australia’s leading property market commentators – and Tim’s noticed quite a few interesting trends in the data that reveal a SLOWDOWN on the strongest growth conditions we’ve seen since the 1980s!

So… is price growth over!?!

And what are the seven signs that suggest capital growth might be changing pace?

 

The 7 Signs…

    1. CoreLogic Home Value Index is already indicating __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
    2. Lower __ __
    3. Rise in __ __
    4. A lift in __ __ __
    5. Negative __ __
    6. Less __
    7. High __ __ __

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

02:18 – Will legislation changes in Victoria affect Airbnb properties?

04:15 – Full Summary of How To Win Friends & Influence People!

07:01 – Meet Tim!

08:04 – Was Tim surprised how much the market bounced back?

09:42 – Why is the housing market so important for Australia’s economy?

11:51 – Why do we generally see the government supporting property when there is a downturn?

13:37 – The Multiplier Effect & The Wealth Effect

14:43 – What’s the biggest barrier to the property market?

15:04 – Does Treasury and Government look at the risks of LVR’s and overall debt?

15:36 – The 4 Key Metrics APRA Monitors Very Closely…

16:15 – Will there be credit tightening coming soon?

18:23 – What would this credit tightening look like?

20:53 – The 7 Signs the housing market is moving through peak growth…

21:39 – What’s the catalyst that normally causes a slowdown?

23:56Sign #1 – What’s the hedonic value measuring?

26:47 – Which capital cities are showing this slowdown (and which ones AREN’T)!?!

27:01 – Is this a DOWNWARD trajectory… or just a slowdown in growth?

29:44 – Sign #2 – What’s happening with Auction Clearance Rates?

32:17 – Sign #3 – What’s rising?

34:08 – Sign #4 – What’s lifting that’s contributing to the slowing growth?

35:50 – What’s happening with high rise developments?

36:05 – Unit oversupply: What’s going on?

36:40 – How many investors buy mid to high rise apartments?

38:04 – When will inner city apartments bounce back?

39:05 – If there’s not as many investors in the market, will APRA still need to intervene?

40:20 – Why is the level of household debt so closely monitored?

42:10 – Serviceability assessments…

42:38 – Sign #5 – Negative Population Growth… let’s unpack it!

43:17 – How have property prices grown WITHOUT population growth, anyway?

46:39 – Sign #6 – When Fiscal Support gets taken out of the economy…

49:05 – Why does the government offer grants for NEW properties, not existing?

50:54 – Sign #7 – Where Housing Affordability Comes In…

52:21 – How long does it take to save a deposit across the different states?

56:48 – When was the last time we saw all markets rising like we have?

58:04 – How is CoreLogic measuring the shift to regional markets?

 

And

1:02:10 – Key Takeaway from the episode…

 

 

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