Is the property market showing signs that growth is SLOWING?

Well, according to Tim Lawless, Head of Research at CoreLogic, it IS – and there are 7 tell-tale signs it’s happening!

That’s right. Joining us today is CoreLogic‘s executive research director for Australasia and indeed one of Australia’s leading property market commentators – and Tim’s noticed quite a few interesting trends in the data that reveal a SLOWDOWN on the strongest growth conditions we’ve seen since the 1980s!

So… is price growth over!?!

And what are the seven signs that suggest capital growth might be changing pace?

 

The 7 Signs…

• 1. CoreLogic Home Value Index is already indicating __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
  2. Lower __ __
  3. Rise in __ __
  4. A lift in __ __ __
  5. Negative __ __
  6. Less __
  7. High __ __ __

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

• CoreLogic’s Seven signs the housing market is moving through a peak rate of growth
• Episode 090 | Future of the Australian Property Market Post Donald Trump – Chat with Tim Lawless
• Episode 156 | Tim Lawless – Property Outlook 2018 with CoreLogic’s Director of Research
• Episode 332 | New Laws To Sting Landlords! – Chat with Hayley Mitchell
• Episode 334 | Bernard Salt: The BIG Shift In Australian Property!
• 6 Reasons Why The Property Market Did NOT Collapse During COVID-19! – Bonusisode with Nerida Conisbee
• PICA Webinars

 

Here’s What We Cover…

02:18 – Will legislation changes in Victoria affect Airbnb properties?

04:15 – Full Summary of How To Win Friends & Influence People!

07:01 – Meet Tim!

08:04 – Was Tim surprised how much the market bounced back?

09:42 – Why is the housing market so important for Australia’s economy?

11:51 – Why do we generally see the government supporting property when there is a downturn?

13:37 – The Multiplier Effect & The Wealth Effect…

14:43 – What’s the biggest barrier to the property market?

15:04 – Does Treasury and Government look at the risks of LVR’s and overall debt?

15:36 – The 4 Key Metrics APRA Monitors Very Closely…

16:15 – Will there be credit tightening coming soon?

18:23 – What would this credit tightening look like?

20:53 – The 7 Signs the housing market is moving through peak growth…

21:39 – What’s the catalyst that normally causes a slowdown?

23:56 – Sign #1 – What’s the hedonic value measuring?

26:47 – Which capital cities are showing this slowdown (and which ones AREN’T)!?!

27:01 – Is this a DOWNWARD trajectory… or just a slowdown in growth?

29:44 – Sign #2 – What’s happening with Auction Clearance Rates?

32:17 – Sign #3 – What’s rising?

34:08 – Sign #4 – What’s lifting that’s contributing to the slowing growth?

35:50 – What’s happening with high rise developments?

36:05 – Unit oversupply: What’s going on?

36:40 – How many investors buy mid to high rise apartments?

38:04 – When will inner city apartments bounce back?

39:05 – If there’s not as many investors in the market, will APRA still need to intervene?

40:20 – Why is the level of household debt so closely monitored?

42:10 – Serviceability assessments…

42:38 – Sign #5 – Negative Population Growth… let’s unpack it!

43:17 – How have property prices grown WITHOUT population growth, anyway?

46:39 – Sign #6 – When Fiscal Support gets taken out of the economy…

49:05 – Why does the government offer grants for NEW properties, not existing?

50:54 – Sign #7 – Where Housing Affordability Comes In…

52:21 – How long does it take to save a deposit across the different states?

56:48 – When was the last time we saw all markets rising like we have?

58:04 – How is CoreLogic measuring the shift to regional markets?

 

And

1:02:10 – Key Takeaway from the episode…

 

 

If you listen to just one episode, please make it this one!

Folks, today we are chatting with one of our very own virtual mentors (of all time!)… BERNARD SALT!!

Yep. You’ve probably heard us talking about Bernard on the podcast before – indeed, he has formed a lot of our own views about where the demand for property is heading.

In a nutshell: if there is one person on earth who deeply understands the intricacies of Australians and what drives people 1) to this country, and 2) to make specific property and lifestyle decisions, it is this man!

(And if you know these insights… you’ll begin to see where the property price increases are likely to occur, right?!!)

It obviously goes without saying that over the decades we’ve absolutely read and reread (and dog-eared the pages) of Bernard’s highly-regarded book (just one of many) called “The Big Shift”.

Yep. Big Guest.

Bernard Salt is widely regarded as one of Australia’s leading social commentators by business, the media and the broader community. He draws on a range of data sets to interpret social change now into the future. He argues that social and cultural change are powerful forces that are reshaping the way we live, the way we work and even how we form relationships. He was awarded the Member of the Order of Australia (AM) in the 2017 Australia Day Honours and was a partner of KPMG until his retirement in June 2017, and still acts as a special advisor to the firm. Between 2011 and 2019 he was an adjunct professor at Curtin University Business School.

Now Bernard is the Managing Director of The Demographics Group, and he writes weekly columns for The Australian that deal with social, generational and demographic matters.

Essentially… Bernard is the Go-To Guru on how statistics tell human stories and what the data suggests about key future trends!

Tune in now – ripper episode, folks! 🤸‍♂️

 

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

• Episode 314 | The Millennial Movement: How It’s Shifting Property Demand – Chat with Simon Kuestenmacher
• Social Atlases by .idcommunity
• Leave a Review on iTunes for your chance to Win a Start & Build Course!

 

Here’s What We Cover…

• What’s the #1 thing you need to know about understanding demographics data?
• The future of Australia and how this should shape your decisions around buying property!
• What’s the current culture telling us about the demand for certain properties?
• The New COVID-Norm – What’s in store for us?
• Will we go through The Roaring 20’s again?
• Bernard’s acronyms to describe specific clusters of people!
• How did Bernard get into Demographics, anyway?
• How do statistics tell human stories?
• How does Bernard decipher so much data?
• What does the location of Red Rooster hint about people in that area?
• Is the “escape to regional” short term?
• What is Australia’s Superpower?
• The Fried Egg City…
• The “Smashed Avocado” Debate…!
• The Empty Islander Syndrome: What is it and What does it say about Australia?
• Why is the beach considered a “third Australian culture”?
• Will people go back to working in an office!?!
• What’s The Millennial Movement that’s shifting property demand?
• What are the key trends that shape the way we live?
• The History of Australia: What does it says about our relationship with property?
• How much has Australian culture been influenced by Mediterranean migrants?
• Interesting character traits across the Generations…