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Episode 358 | Too Much Risk? Australian Property & Economic Update – Chat with Nerida Conisbee

Breaking news just in on the property & economic front, folks!

There’s clearly quite a bit going on with the health crisis, soaring property market and… just announced this week… an indication that a tightening of lending might be coming sooner than we think!

Despite price growth in the current market being led primarily by owner-occupiers, the risks around rising household debt may mean that APRA and the financial regulators will step in to prevent the build-up of future risks to the broader economy…

The question is: If they’re going to pull the handbrake, What Would This Look Like and WHEN Would It Happen?

Here to unpack all this, as well as the latest Australian Property & Economic Update is our good friend Nerida Conisbee, Chief Economist at Ray White.

Now, if you’ve heard Nerida’s data-driven insights and wisdom on the show before, you might’ve noticed she’s had a little change in title from Chief Economist at the REA Group… And if you haven’t heard from her before (you’re in for a real treat!) or simply need a refresher: Nerida is a highly regarded economist, with a specific expertise in residential and commercial property. She is currently the MOST quoted property commentator in Australia, the third most quoted economist and a sought-after public speaker, writer and columnist with more than 20 years of property research experience throughout Asia Specific.

So, if you want a PRECISE update on property and economic news here in Australia (and where it’s looking to go from here), then please listen now to get the gold & stay informed.

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

  • 00:40 – Block your ears non-AFL fans 😉
  • 03:28 – Try this word instead.
  • 05:24 – Meet Nerida…
  • 06:04 – The change & data leak
  • 07:36 – Never Before Revealed: Nerida’s Money Backstory!!
  • 10:46 – Does she carry this through with her own family?
  • 13:24 – Nerida’s property story
  • 14:33 – The current economy – What’s going on?!
  • 16:27 – What will likely unfold in the December quarter?
  • 16:57 – What picks up when we come out of lockdown?
  • 17:12 – The Big Challenge: Iron Ore Prices
  • 17:49 – Where will this show up most in the Aus economy?
  • 18:48 – What might happen if we see higher hospital rates?
  • 21:25 – Australia’s Economy­ – What might happen?
  • 22:38 – The Lack of Migration: How Problematic Is It?
  • 23:39 – The Hot Topic: INFLATION
  • 26:00 – Too Much Risk!?!
  • 26:18 – A Trillion Dollars In Debt: Australia’s Debt Hole
  • 26:47 – How are we going to pay that debt back?
  • 28:15 – Property Update!
  • 29:45 – Breaking News: Josh Frydenberg’s Announcement!
  • 30:08 – Household Debt — Where is it currently at?
  • 31:25 – What does Nerida see happening with the regulations?
  • 35:54 – How do you stop people taking on too much debt?
  • 38:30 – What’s happening with First Home Buyers?
  • 41:46 – What you need to know about immigration
  • 45:04 – The Luxury Market: How is it performing?
  • 46:34 – Listing Volumes – What’s happening now?
  • 49:00 – The Future of Commercial Property in CBDs
  • 52:14 – Unemployment Numbers: The Risk Factors
  • 55:21 – How to NOT save $250! (interesting way to look at things…)
  • 56:28 – Pain & Gain: New Data From CoreLogic

 

 

RBA September 2021: Australia’s Planned Recovery NOT So Predictable?

And he’s back!! After 2 months away, we’re finally back with Ben’s update on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate, and as always, he’ll be unpacking the economic and political update around the world and within Australia too.

This month’s update also includes looking ahead to the “$64 million question” — how will consumers respond once our two biggest economies open back up?

 

Plus, Ben also includes his latest news and commentary on…

👉 COVID Update and the Vaccination story
👉 How are VIC & NSW Lockdown affecting the country’s GDP
👉 The recession that we missed by a hairline!
👉 Australia’s GDP Performance that pre and post COVID
👉 Are we or will we ever recover from this?
👉 Property Prices – Are we seeing the start of the downward trend?

 

 

Additional free resources:

If you’re looking to buy at the moment, make sure to check out our Mini-Series!

🔥 Episode 325 | The Step-By-Step Process To Win In A HOT Property Market – Part 1

🔥 Episode 326 | How To Win In A HOT Property Market (Part 2) – The Step-By-Step Process!

🔥 Episode 327 | Winning A HOT Property Market (Part 3) – The Step-By-Step Process!

 

And One Final Word…

If you’re worried about your finances or if you have no clarity on your cash flow position, we strongly recommend you to organise your finances now. It’s more important than ever to have a clear view, down to the exact cent, on how much you’re spending each month and how much surplus you’ve got. If you don’t know it, then log in to your Money SMARTS Platform here and update the numbers.

Don’t have an account yet? Create your free access below and we’ll also send you an e-copy of the instruction manual which is also our best-seller book, Make Money Simple Again. Just fill in the form below and we’ll email it to you right away.

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER: This podcast is general information only and is an opinion comment by Ben Kingsley. The information contained in this video is for Australian residents only. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential viewer. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken on the basis of this information without first seeking qualified and professional advice.

The Property Couch, its employees or contractors do not represent or guarantee that the information is accurate or free from errors or omissions and therefore provide no warranties or guarantees. The Property Couch disclaims any and all duty of care in relation to the information and liability for any reliance on investment decisions, claiming the use or guidance of this publication or information contained within it.

For more information, please visit: http://thepropertycouch.com.au

 

 

 

 

 

 

RBA June 2021 : Inflation Risk – How bad is it?

This video features Ben’s update on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate, and as always, he’ll be unpacking the economic and political update around the world and within Australia too.

The themes for this month are:

  • Settle down, people, settle down – there’s too much commentary about the inflation risk story.
  • This month it’s all about the positive business data as they join the economic party.
  • And finally, well, we’re back in lockdown for the fourth time here in Melbourne. .

 

Plus, Ben also includes his latest news and commentary on…

👉 The World Economic Story – Commodity Prices and COVID Update
👉 Overall Economic Outlook in United States, China, Japan and Europe
👉 Quick update on the Federal Budget 2021!
👉 The Unemployment and Wage Growth story – Why are we so concerned about them?
👉 Business Conditions – What’s Making News?
👉 Property Prices – How long will they continue to increase?

 

 

Additional free resources:

If you’re looking to buy at the moment, make sure to check out our Mini-Series!

🔥 Episode 325 | The Step-By-Step Process To Win In A HOT Property Market – Part 1

🔥 Episode 326 | How To Win In A HOT Property Market (Part 2) – The Step-By-Step Process!

🔥 Episode 327 | Winning A HOT Property Market (Part 3) – The Step-By-Step Process!

 

And One Final Word…

If you’re worried about your finances or if you have no clarity on your cash flow position, we strongly recommend you to organise your finances now. It’s more important than ever to have a clear view, down to the exact cent, on how much you’re spending each month and how much surplus you’ve got. If you don’t know it, then log in to your Money SMARTS Platform here and update the numbers.

Don’t have an account yet? Create your free access below and we’ll also send you an e-copy of the instruction manual which is also our best-seller book, Make Money Simple Again. Just fill in the form below and we’ll email it to you right away.

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER: This podcast is general information only and is an opinion comment by Ben Kingsley. The information contained in this video is for Australian residents only. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential viewer. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken on the basis of this information without first seeking qualified and professional advice.

The Property Couch, its employees or contractors do not represent or guarantee that the information is accurate or free from errors or omissions and therefore provide no warranties or guarantees. The Property Couch disclaims any and all duty of care in relation to the information and liability for any reliance on investment decisions, claiming the use or guidance of this publication or information contained within it.

For more information, please visit: http://thepropertycouch.com.au

 

 

 

 

 

 

RBA May 2021 : When What Gets Better, Gets Better!

The verdict is well and truly in — when money is cheap, the world goes around faster. We’re basically seeing that show up now. The other important news is around inflation – and we’re going to see this word, “transitionary” as the new buzzword. And… positive economic data is everywhere. Let’s dive deeper into this month’s RBA!

This video features Ben’s update on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate, and as always, he’ll be unpacking the economic and political update around the world and within Australia too.

 

Plus, Ben also includes his latest news and commentary on…

👉 United States GDP, Jobs Market, Housing Market and more!
👉 The IMF Latest World Economic Outlook – Find out more here
👉 What are the positive economic indicators for Australia?
👉 Why is the RBA so fixated on inflation?
👉 How’s the Australian Housing Market looking like?

 

 

Additional free resources:

If you’re looking to buy at the moment, make sure to check out our Mini-Series!

🔥 Episode 325 | The Step-By-Step Process To Win In A HOT Property Market – Part 1

🔥 Episode 326 | How To Win In A HOT Property Market (Part 2) – The Step-By-Step Process!

🔥 Episode 327 | Winning A HOT Property Market (Part 3) – The Step-By-Step Process!

 

And One Final Word…

If you’re worried about your finances or if you have no clarity on your cash flow position, we strongly recommend you to organise your finances now. It’s more important than ever to have a clear view, down to the exact cent, on how much you’re spending each month and how much surplus you’ve got. If you don’t know it, then log in to your Money SMARTS Platform here and update the numbers.

Don’t have an account yet? Create your free access below and we’ll also send you an e-copy of the instruction manual which is also our best-seller book, Make Money Simple Again. Just fill in the form below and we’ll email it to you right away.

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER: This podcast is general information only and is an opinion comment by Ben Kingsley. The information contained in this video is for Australian residents only. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential viewer. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken on the basis of this information without first seeking qualified and professional advice.

The Property Couch, its employees or contractors do not represent or guarantee that the information is accurate or free from errors or omissions and therefore provide no warranties or guarantees. The Property Couch disclaims any and all duty of care in relation to the information and liability for any reliance on investment decisions, claiming the use or guidance of this publication or information contained within it.

For more information, please visit: http://thepropertycouch.com.au

 

 

 

 

 

 

Episode 336 | Is Price Growth Over? 7 Signs Growth Is Slowing – Chat with Tim Lawless

Is the property market showing signs that growth is SLOWING?

Well, according to Tim Lawless, Head of Research at CoreLogic, it IS – and there are 7 tell-tale signs it’s happening!

That’s right. Joining us today is CoreLogic‘s executive research director for Australasia and indeed one of Australia’s leading property market commentators – and Tim’s noticed quite a few interesting trends in the data that reveal a SLOWDOWN on the strongest growth conditions we’ve seen since the 1980s!

So… is price growth over!?!

And what are the seven signs that suggest capital growth might be changing pace?

 

The 7 Signs…

    1. CoreLogic Home Value Index is already indicating __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
    2. Lower __ __
    3. Rise in __ __
    4. A lift in __ __ __
    5. Negative __ __
    6. Less __
    7. High __ __ __

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

02:18 – Will legislation changes in Victoria affect Airbnb properties?

04:15 – Full Summary of How To Win Friends & Influence People!

07:01 – Meet Tim!

08:04 – Was Tim surprised how much the market bounced back?

09:42 – Why is the housing market so important for Australia’s economy?

11:51 – Why do we generally see the government supporting property when there is a downturn?

13:37 – The Multiplier Effect & The Wealth Effect

14:43 – What’s the biggest barrier to the property market?

15:04 – Does Treasury and Government look at the risks of LVR’s and overall debt?

15:36 – The 4 Key Metrics APRA Monitors Very Closely…

16:15 – Will there be credit tightening coming soon?

18:23 – What would this credit tightening look like?

20:53 – The 7 Signs the housing market is moving through peak growth…

21:39 – What’s the catalyst that normally causes a slowdown?

23:56Sign #1 – What’s the hedonic value measuring?

26:47 – Which capital cities are showing this slowdown (and which ones AREN’T)!?!

27:01 – Is this a DOWNWARD trajectory… or just a slowdown in growth?

29:44 – Sign #2 – What’s happening with Auction Clearance Rates?

32:17 – Sign #3 – What’s rising?

34:08 – Sign #4 – What’s lifting that’s contributing to the slowing growth?

35:50 – What’s happening with high rise developments?

36:05 – Unit oversupply: What’s going on?

36:40 – How many investors buy mid to high rise apartments?

38:04 – When will inner city apartments bounce back?

39:05 – If there’s not as many investors in the market, will APRA still need to intervene?

40:20 – Why is the level of household debt so closely monitored?

42:10 – Serviceability assessments…

42:38 – Sign #5 – Negative Population Growth… let’s unpack it!

43:17 – How have property prices grown WITHOUT population growth, anyway?

46:39 – Sign #6 – When Fiscal Support gets taken out of the economy…

49:05 – Why does the government offer grants for NEW properties, not existing?

50:54 – Sign #7 – Where Housing Affordability Comes In…

52:21 – How long does it take to save a deposit across the different states?

56:48 – When was the last time we saw all markets rising like we have?

58:04 – How is CoreLogic measuring the shift to regional markets?

 

And

1:02:10 – Key Takeaway from the episode…

 

 

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