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169 | Alan Oster – NAB’s Group Chief Economist – on Interest-Rate Rise, Tax Cut and The Future of Residential Property

Let’s get down to business, folks! Today we’re tackling the past, present and future of Australia’s economy…

And who better to help us out than Alan Oster, Group Chief Economist of the National Australia Bank (NAB)!

Alan sure knows his stuff, folks — as Group Chief Economist, Alan is responsible for NAB’s global economic and financial forecasts. Not to mention, before he started at NAB (which was in 1992, mind you), he worked as Senior Adviser in Treasury specialising in economic forecasting and modelling for an impressive 15 years. Oh, and in 1987 he was seconded for nearly four years as Counsellor-Economic and Financial with Australia’s delegation to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development — OECD — in Paris.

Yes, he’s definitely the man you want to speak to if you’ve got a question about Australia’s economy!

 

Hold on to your seat folks cause here’s what you’re in for:

  • Where is the economy going in the next 12 – 18 months?
  • Rather than mortgage stress, what’s the number one issue at present?
  • What’s going to happen, on average, to house prices?
  • Will your wage increase any time soon?
  • Federal Budget 2018: What’s in store and will we see tax cuts?
  • Who will struggle most with postcode restrictions?
  • What needs to happen to benefit the economy?
  • Is the Australian economy going to be better or worse?
  • How do foreign buyers and the Chinese market fit in?
  • Will APRA keep tightening the lending regulations?
  • When’s the cash rate likely going to increase?
  • Is inflation on the rise?
  • What’s in store for interest-only loans?
  • What’s happening in the US with the 10-year bond rates?
  • Why do banks care about outer city living and inner city living?
  • Is the demand in Sydney and Melbourne slowing?
  • What’s the riskiest sector should unemployment starts to rise?
  • What’s the difference between “the bricks” and the “the clicks”?
  • What do banks ALWAYS look for before handing out loans?
  • Who owns most of the apartments in the capital cities and what are his thoughts on the future of the apartment market?
  • What about the second-tier cities (Brisbane, Adelaide etc.)
  • Which states are having the fastest rental growth?
  • Is Perth now an investment-grade location?
  • Where would Alan invest his money?
  • What happened when then Treasurer Paul Keating removed negative gearing?
  • What will be the economic impact and consequences if negative gearing is removed again at the current time?
  • How should we tackle housing affordability?

 

p.s. Looking for the special reports mentioned in today’s show?

 

124 | Q&A – 20 minutes Saved 20 Years of Regret, Investing in Airbnb, Property Spruikers, Buying Cash Flow Only and the Cost of Commission

Alright folks, it’s that time again … you ask, the boys answer!

After receiving a tabletop full of new topics, we’ve taken our que this week behind an anonymously-sent testimonial. Turns out an earlier podcast Why You Shouldn’t Invest in Property saved our listener from being “sold a lemon by a spruiker”! Yep. Unfortunately guys, the property spruikers are still out there, so Bryce & Ben will be answering similar questions on the red flags to look out for, like:

  • How to sniff out the so called “educators” and get your trust back
  • What your next move should be to fix bad property advice
  • How 20 minutes stopped 20 years of regret
  • What the consequences are with ‘fee for service’ and ‘working for commission’
  • Why the right asset selection can flip the spruikers on their heads
  • What the finance in the first two stages of property investing are
  • Why negative gearing is really only a moment in time
  • How long and how many properties do you need in the accumulation phase
  • What ‘buying only for cash flow’ is, and its risks and rewards
  • Investing in regional area and factors to consider
  • How to spot the difference between a genuine property educator vs a spruiker

and (SUPER TOPICAL)

  • Airbnb Investment: Is it worth considering them?

This is a goodie, especially for those who don’t want to feel the sting of bad investing!

(For those who want to know the website Ben talks about, it’s PIPA.)

 

The questions we’ve handpicked are from:

 

Listener Anonymous (as continued from their nightmare situation, which the boys will read out):

… We have about $200,000 of available equity, but we are now not sure what our borrowing power is as our previous broker was also linked to the spruikers and we don’t trust what they’ve told us. In your opinion, what should our next move be? Ideally we’d like to invest in Melbourne or Sydney but are not sure if it’s the right time to get into these markets.

 

Andy:

Can you guys talk about the finance in the first two stages of property investing? How do we go about understanding the numbers eg loans, consolidation and what is involved how everything works with the finance and loans, what to do with the loans from accumulation stages to consideration stages and onwards?

 

Jonathan:

Hi guys. I’ve recently started listening to your podcast and think it’s great. I’ve recently attended a seminar with ‘XYZ’ company, ‘XYZ’ Education they call themselves. Just wanted to know if you had heard anything about them? I understand there are many of these ‘mentors’ out there—those that are ‘fee for service’ and those that work off commission. These guys are the later. Any thoughts, comments would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.

 

Kate:

What do you think about the idea of buying for cash flow only? I live in Adelaide and there are many areas within 60 – 90mins of Adelaide where you can buy quality character properties for less than $250,000. If only earning an average income, and planning to buy and hold for 15 – 20 years, do you think a larger portfolio of properties like this may be less risky than one or two closer to the CBD, which will have substantial holding costs?

 

Eddie Airbnb:

Hi. I am an avid listener to your podcasts and I started listening to them since 2015, but I have stopped for a year. I have recently bought another investment unit and have started listening to them again. I am currently at episode 51 and it is great because I can listen to them nonstop without having to wait for the next one to arrive in my podcast. Great work, I really enjoy your shows.
I have a question regarding Airbnb. I know it is not aligned with your property investing strategy and overall investing mantra. But recently, it has taken the property market by storm and there are many investors who are doing this to become positive cash flow. It is sort of the elephant in the room and there is a lot of talk about it out there, whether it is in high-rise holiday resort, or brick and mortar family homes. People are doing it. I have recently bought an apartment (yes: high rise, high density, tourist destination, lifts and caretaker) and so far I am cash flow positive, after netting all costs including cleaning, rates and body corporate. I only manage the bookings of the apartment and outsource everything to a cleaner who doubles up as my meet-and-greet host. I also have insurances to cover those times when needed, and I do everything above board.
I would like your views on how your look at Airbnb investment as part of an investment strategy—if it is something that you are interested at discussing.
Thanks.
If you like this Q&A episode (A Transitioning Market, Money, Habits, Tax Deductions and What It’s Really Costing You), don’t forget to rate us on our iTunes channel (The Property Couch Podcast) and our Facebook page. Any questions or ideas? Feel free to drop us your thoughts here: http://thepropertycouch.com.au/topics/

069 | Q&A – Where is that sweet spot between Growth and Yield, investing in metro or regional and more

It’s Questions and Answers time! This week, Bryce and Ben looks at the questions below. Thanks again for submitting your questions!:

 

  • Question on Growth and Yield from Steve: Anyhow, a question for the podcast. Growth and yield are like a sea saw. As one goes up, the other goes down. Where I wonder is that sweet spot? Where both balance nicely and their feet dangle without touching the ground? For example, the best growth may be on Sydney Harbour with a view, but you may be negative $1,000 a week. So you go one suburb back, negative $800 a week. So you go one more back negative $600 a week. At some point you must hit a spot where you say, that’s the best growth I can afford. How do you decide that sweet spot? Is it different for all investors? Even if James Packer said to you, “Get me the best growth you can, income is not a problem” would there still be a point where you think, “Geez, even if we buy him a house on the harbour, the growth still won’t cover that massive shortfall over time.”Great show, keep it up. You are both a shining light in a dodgy, unregulated shark-filled industry. After all, my experience with people who talk very confidently but don’t know what they’re doing, (the enthusiastic amateur you effectively call them) I came up with my own saying, “Confidence does not equal competence“. Unfortunately, all you need is a little doubt in your own abilities and you default to the more confident person, who you may well know more than.
  • Question on Metro or Regional from James: I am looking to invest in my second property with my partner, we live in a rural area (Albury/Wodonga) and have around $100,000 in equity in our current owner occupied dwelling and good incomes with a maximum borrowing capacity of around $700-800k. Do you suggest trying to break into a Metro market (i.e. Melbourne) with a property in an investment grade suburb, which will in turn max out our borrowing capacity, or alternatively buy 1-2 properties in a major rural city?
  • Question on forecasting capital growth from Kayne: Just have one question in regards to forecasting Capital growth. I know you are conservative with your vacancy and interest rate assumptions (7.5% & 10% respectively) in your models. Are you also conservative in your CG assumptions (e.g if historical growth was ‘x’ would you round down a percent or 2 or keep it the same?) if you’ve covered this and I’ve missed it sorry for the double up, if not I look forward to your answer.
  • Question on active investing from Brian: Hi guys love the podcast immensely! If possible could you discuss views on being able to be an active investor to essentially create an income while still passively investing through leverage? Is this a possible scenario or what would someone need to look into to be able to do something similar…. I’m a tradesman so majority of the work I could do myself. Thanks very much!

 

Some of the resources mentioned in this podcast:

  • Report from CoreLogic : A profile of the Australian Investor – Who, Where and What? – Download here
  • Episode 37 | Understanding the Scarcity factor in Property Investment – Listen here
  • Case Demonstration: 4% Growth and 6% Yield vs. 6% Growth and 4% Yield – Watch here
  • Episode 51 | Will Labor’s proposed changes to Negative Gearing policy be good or bad for ordinary Australians? – Listen here

 

If you like this Q&A episode (Where is that sweet spot between Growth and Yield, investing in metro or regional and more), don’t forget to rate us on our iTunes channel (The Property Couch Podcast) and our Facebook page. Any questions or ideas? Feel free to drop us your thoughts here: http://tpcaustralia.wpengine.com/topics/

046 | Q&A – Things we would have done differently, Buying sight unseen, Tax and purpose of property, Investment grade in regional centres and Joint ventures

We are back on with the Questions and Answer time for our Summer Series. This week, Bryce Holdaway and Ben Kingsley will be answering the questions below from our fellow listeners. Thanks again for submitting your questions!

  • Question from Alex: Aside from getting into property earlier or not selling… knowing what you know now, what 5 things would you both have done differently?
  • Buying sight unseen questions from Lewis : We are currently living overseas and want to want to move back to Australia in a number of years. Late 20s and want to start buying investment properties in 2016, we have two questions.
    1. Best advice for buying property without being able to walk through the property.
    2. Best area to buy in Australia if you don’t know where in Oz you want to move back too!
  • Question on tax implications on property from Chris : A question relating to turning an investment property into a PPR. My partner and I just completed construction of a home which was intended to be an investment property for 5-7 years after which time we were going to move in and make our family home. Situations have changed and we will be able to completely pay off and move into the new house within the next 12 months. Will there be any issues arising from all the tax deductions (ie interest during the build, deprecation etc) Since we will be changing the purpose of the house?
  • Investment grade for regional properties question from Lou: Loving the podcasts – succinct and very informative so thank you! I’m currently saving for my first investment property and I have a couple of questions. I am considering regional Victoria (as I grew up there) and was wondering how ‘Investment Grade‘ the properties are, particularly along the Vic/NSW border. Should I be looking here or become more ‘borderless’ in my approach? I am looking to purchase in 2016 however I’m concerned with the property cycle, should I hold off another year until the market drops or is it likely to only increase in the short/medium term? I understand you can only give general advice, but I would like to know what the generally suspected trends are.
  • Joint venture question from Christopher: I am a first time investor and am looking at buying an older federation era home. For a 3 bedroom home of this style you are looking at a purchase price of around the $550,000 mark. Due to an over inflation of new homes, I can see these are the only worthwhile investments for the future as they have generally around the 1000 sq m block at less than a km from the CBD and are rising in value at around 2-3% per year depending on what renovations are performed where they can be anywhere up to 10%.  To find these funds I am looking at doing a joint venture with a good mate of mine who is a builder, do the minor renovations without overcapitalising, hold it for maybe 5 years rented out for that period and then sell it for hopefully a decent capital gain.  Are joint ventures worth it and will this be a silly strategy for such an old house as depreciation will have been used up already and these older houses can be a pandora’s box once opened up and end up costing way over budget?

 

Free resources mentioned in this podcast:

 

If you like this Q&A episode, don’t forget to rate us at our iTunes channel (The Property Couch Podcast) and our Facebook page. Any questions or ideas? Feel free to drop us your thoughts here: http://tpcaustralia.wpengine.com/topics/

026 | Q&A – Property through Trust, Renovating Established Properties, Gentrification and Investing in Regional Centre

We have been receiving a lot of great suggestions and questions from our listeners! If you have submitted a question on property investing in Australia and have yet to hear a response from us, don’t worry. We will get to you as soon as we can. In this week’s podcast, Bryce Holdaway and Ben Kingsley will be addressing some topics on:

  • Ep 26 of TPC - Q&A Property through trust, renovating established properties..Property in Trust from Christ : Can you address investing in trusts? In particular purchasing property through trust and transferring currently owned investment properties into a family trust
  • Tax benefits in renovating established properties from Christian : One of the topic that got me interested was Tax Depreciation, when you had Bradley Beer come in as a special guest. I already have a depreciation schedule, the one thing that plays on my mind – is whether it is worth renovating an established property? Is there a rule of thumb that I should use to determine whether my investment property needs to undergo a renovation? Is there a golden rule to this on when is the best time?
  • Gentrification questions from Andy : What is gentrification and its signs? Does this take a long time to happen? What are the positives and negatives of buying in a suburb that hasn’t had it or is in the process of having a face lift/demographic change? (I’m assuming that is what gentrification is?) Thanks guys!! The podcasts are gold!
  • Investing in Regional Centre from Lewis : Can you offer any advice regarding property investment in a regional centre? Often there are a lot of stones unturned in these markets. I am based 30km from the coast in Central Queensland and medium/high density development is a relatively new concept to most buyers in this area. However, recently completed projects have shown a real interest in this type of offering versus detached dwellings and I am wondering how to interpret this.

 

For access to The Property Couch’s media kit, please email us here: [email protected].

 

If you like this Q&A episode, don’t forget to rate us at our iTunes channel (The Property Couch Podcast) and our Facebook page. Any questions or ideas? Feel free to drop us your thoughts here: http://tpcaustralia.wpengine.com/topics/

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