After three back-to-back rate rises, all eyes are back on the RBA.

On Tuesday 16 June at 2:30pm AEST, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hand down its fourth cash rate decision of the year… and this one is shaping up to be a biggie.

The cash rate is currently sitting at 4.35%, and while most economists expect the RBA to hold this month, the real question is what the Board says next.

Is this just a pause for breath? Or has the tightening cycle finally run out of steam?

What’s Happening

Since the RBA’s May hike to 4.35%, the economic picture has become a little more complicated.

The biggest shift has been in the labour market.

April’s labour force data showed the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% — the highest level since November 2021 — with employment falling by around 19,000 people. That’s the kind of data that can make the RBA pause and think twice before lifting rates again.

But inflation hasn’t disappeared either.

In its May statement, the RBA pointed to the Middle East conflict and higher fuel prices as key inflation risks, including the possibility of second-round effects flowing through to goods and services.

Its May forecasts also showed trimmed mean inflation remaining above 3% until mid-2027 before easing back towards the target band.

So this is the bind the Board is in: Inflation is telling them to stay firm. The labour market is telling them to be careful. And households are already feeling the squeeze.

Join Us LIVE for the RBA & Economic Update

Join Ben and Evan Lucas LIVE from 2:00pm AEST as they break down the RBA’s decision, the latest economic data, and what the Board’s language signals about the path ahead.

If the video above hasn’t refreshed by 2:10pm, refresh the page or head over to our YouTube channel to join the live discussion.

What This Means for Borrowers

A hold tomorrow doesn’t mean the pressure is suddenly off.

The cash rate is still sitting at 4.35%, and this year’s three rate rises are still making their way through household budgets.

For a borrower with a $700,000 variable-rate mortgage, the cumulative 75 basis points of increases this year could mean hundreds of dollars more in monthly repayments, depending on their loan structure, rate and remaining term.

That’s why tomorrow’s decision matters.

A hawkish hold could mean borrowers need to keep stress-testing their position and preparing for more rate pressure. A softer statement could shift market expectations and influence fixed-rate pricing.

Either way, now is a very good time to check whether your mortgage is still competitive.

That might be as simple as calling your bank and asking for a rate review. But if you’d like a clearer picture of what else may be available, our Mortgage Broking team at Empower Wealth can help you compare the market and review your current loan.

Because in a market like this, guessing is expensive.