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429 | Property Market Outlook 2023

Folks, it’s about that time of year again…  

We’re dusting off our crystal ball, crunching the numbers from last Quarter and using our hard-earned experience from past market cycles to give you…  

Your ultimate Property Market Outlook for 2023!  

 From the suburbs that are set to soar in 2023 to when we can finally expect this record rate hike to end, we’re covering everything you can expect this year and answering:

Is Australia headed towards a V or U-Shaped Recovery?  

And of course…we’ll be using some super useful reports to bring you the wider Macro Story in Australia including inflation numbers, property supply levels and more.

With each year bringing a completely different property market, tune in to get an expert forecast for 2023 and be prepared for the year ahead.  

Give it a listen now! 

 

Free Stuff Mentioned… 

 

Want to work with Bryce & Ben’s Award-Winning Team? 

 

Here’s some of the gold we cover… 

  • 0:00 – We’ve been receiving super positive feedback on the WealthSPEED (Thank you!)  
  • 4:01 – Here’s how to easily access ALL resources mentioned in this show….
  • 4:49 – Mindset Minute: Spoil your kids, and you’ll end up doing this😉  
  • 6:46 – What we’ve been hearing at the coal face… 
  • 9:34 The Baseline Scenario Set Up  
  • 11:22 – Our prediction for the Cash Rates (THIS is what’s holding the market back…) 
  • 15:30 This is why we think we’re close to an interest rate pause! (Reason #1)  
  • 17:48 – The 3 Population Buckets  
  • 18:23 – See the Australian Household Savings Ratio Graph here >> 
  • 19:51 – Reason #2  
  • 21:19 – Breaking down our Inflation Indicators
  • 23:14 – THIS was the biggest catalyst of core inflation 😮  
  • 24:10 – Our Inflation Prediction (Using December’s NAB Business Sentiment Survey Data.) 
  • 26:38 – Reason #3 (Immigration + Employment = ?!?)  
  • 29:08 – “Disinflation”, construction costs (Read CoreLogic’s Cordell Construction Cost Index here >>)  
  • 31:20 – The Macro Story in Australia (& what happens if we have a rate pause?!)  
  • 33:39 – Property supply & demand levels (See the Capital City Properties Listed For Sale graph here >>) 
  • 40:40 – Our forecast for property supply levels 
  • 41:56 – The Lending Story & APRA’s potential role  
  • 43:56 When should you get into the property market?  
  • 47:41 – When we think the market will bottom out!   
  • 51:39 – Is Australia headed towards a V or U-Shaped Recovery?  
  • 52:57 – What markets-within-markets are set to soar?   
  • 1:01:33 Who should be buying this year?  
  • 1:05:36 – …and who definitely shouldn’t be buying this year?  
  • 1:11:52 – Our Top Takeaways & Predictions   

And… 

  • 1:16:28 – You can unread your messages?! Here’s how😮  
  • 1:18:10 – China’s off its COVID Zero policy… 
  • 1:20:35 – Leave us your questions for our next Q&A Day! Send them through our SpeakPipe here >>  

 

Check out our newest financial features the WealthCLOCK, WealthSPEED & WealthTRACKER on the Moorr web platform, or download the app on Apple and Android.  

 

RBA Cash Rate February 2023: The Inflation Peak Has Passed, So What’s Next? 

Welcome back to a new year and Ben’s first RBA report for 2023! 

After a month’s hiatus, Australia’s economic landscape has changed rapidly. Will the board decide to mirror December’s 0.25 rate rise or is a larger rate hike in order?  

Tune in to find out, plus Ben covers the highs and lows of the domestic market from the ASX’s surprise positive results to falling unemployment and business sentiment.  

Of course, Ben also dives into the biggest news from around the world including the US’ “disinflationary” period, China’s relaxing lockdown laws, and more.  

Here are Ben’s key themes for this month’s economic update: 

  • We are now past the peak of last year’s Global Inflation shock (including here is Australia, even though the last data read for December didn’t show that).
  • Australia’s Cash Rate tightening cycle is coming to an end, led by the consumer running out of cash

 

P.S. Want to hear our 2023 market predictions? Stayed tuned for this week’s episode (Ep 429) where Bryce and Ben unpack the Risks and Opportunities in our annual Property Market Outlook for 2023.  

Quick tip! If you’re keen to forecast your cashflows through this period, use the handy MoneySTRETCH feature on our free money management platform, Moorr. Click here to sign up or log in. 

 

 

Plus, Ben also includes his latest news and commentary on…

👉 Australia’s 9th consecutive cash rate rise

👉 Our Cash Rate tightening cycle is coming to an end, led by the consumer running out of cash

👉 Is ‘Disinflation’ the buzzword of 2023?  

👉 US’ mixed economic signals: What does this mean for the world’s biggest economy

👉 China’s lockdown restrictions ease & good news comes out of Europe   

👉 The effect of immigration in Australia over the coming year  

👉 A slowing construction sector   

👉 Retail spending drops and things get tougher on the business front (but why it’s actually a good thing)   

👉 How APRA is keeping consumers in Mortgage Jail

👉 CoreLogic’s Home Value Index – 1 February 2023, and more!  

 

And One Final Word…

If you’re worried about your finances or if you have no clarity on your cash flow position, we strongly recommend you to organise your finances now. It’s more important than ever to have a clear view, down to the exact cent, on how much you’re spending each month and how much surplus you’ve got. If you don’t know it, then log in to your Money SMARTS Platform here and update the numbers.

Don’t have an account yet? Create your free access below and we’ll also send you an e-copy of the instruction manual which is also our best-seller book, Make Money Simple Again. Just fill in the form below and we’ll email it to you right away.

 

 

DISCLAIMER: This podcast is general information only and is an opinion comment by Ben Kingsley. The information contained in this video is for Australian residents only. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential viewer. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken on the basis of this information without first seeking qualified and professional advice.

The Property Couch, its employees or contractors do not represent or guarantee that the information is accurate or free from errors or omissions and therefore provide no warranties or guarantees. The Property Couch disclaims any and all duty of care in relation to the information and liability for any reliance on investment decisions, claiming the use or guidance of this publication or information contained within it.

For more information, please visit: http://thepropertycouch.com.au

 

 

 

 

 

 

RBA Cash Rate December 2022: Has Australia Reached Its Inflation Summit?

As we start to close out the year that was, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just released its last official cash rate for 2022!  

As global economic outlook shifts to a more “positive” note with the US and Australia seeming to have escaped a recession, have we just received another early Christmas present from the RBA?  

Tune in to find out if the cash rate has been paused for the first time in 7 months, plus Ben unpacks these key themes in this month’s economic update: 

  • The slowing of interest rate hikes in the US  
  • A case for pausing interest rates in Australia moving forward  
  • How the property market will finish out 2022 and begin 2023 

Quick tip! If you’re keen to forecast your cashflows through this period, use the handy MoneySTRETCH feature on our free money management platform, Moorr. Click here to sign up or log in. 

 

Plus, Ben also includes his latest news and commentary on…

👉 The RBA’s Official Cash Rate!  

👉 Adjusted OECD Global Outlook Forecasted Figures 

👉 Why US interest rates will always go higher than Australia!  

👉 China’s low inflation figures yet Zero COVID Policy economic chokehold  

👉 Is the Eurozone set to go into a recession in 2023?  

👉 Has interest rates finally curbed spending here in Australia?  

👉 Employment levels reach record highs!  

👉 Property prices continue to tumble (Note: Folks, there is no such thing as a typical National Dwelling Property!  Tune in to Episode 418 where we explain why it’s all about “markets within markets”!)  

👉 Ben’s Big Property & Economic Predictions for 2023 

👉 CoreLogic’s Home Value Index: 31 November 2022   

Plus much more! 

 

Free Resources Mentioned:

🔥 The RBA’s Financial Stability Review – October 2022

🔥 Episode 418 | The Hidden Forces Driving Property Values

🔥 Related Episodes:

 

And One Final Word…

If you’re worried about your finances or if you have no clarity on your cash flow position, we strongly recommend you to organise your finances now. It’s more important than ever to have a clear view, down to the exact cent, on how much you’re spending each month and how much surplus you’ve got. If you don’t know it, then log in to your Money SMARTS Platform here and update the numbers.

Don’t have an account yet? Create your free access below and we’ll also send you an e-copy of the instruction manual which is also our best-seller book, Make Money Simple Again. Just fill in the form below and we’ll email it to you right away.

 

 

DISCLAIMER: This podcast is general information only and is an opinion comment by Ben Kingsley. The information contained in this video is for Australian residents only. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential viewer. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken on the basis of this information without first seeking qualified and professional advice.

The Property Couch, its employees or contractors do not represent or guarantee that the information is accurate or free from errors or omissions and therefore provide no warranties or guarantees. The Property Couch disclaims any and all duty of care in relation to the information and liability for any reliance on investment decisions, claiming the use or guidance of this publication or information contained within it.

For more information, please visit: http://thepropertycouch.com.au

 

 

 

 

 

 

416 | How Can We Solve Australia’s Building Crisis? – Chat with Paul Baker

Property is a game of finance just as much as it is a game of bricks and mortar. But what happens when this bricks and mortar – and the cost to put it all together – starts to cost too much?!  

 Today we’re addressing the complex and fast-growing issue of Australia’s building crisis. 🤯 

From rising labour costs to widespread material shortages, we’ll be exploring why the industry has ended up in its current state, when we can expect things to “normalise”, and answering the BIG question… 

Should you delay building?! And if you’re already building….what should you do to ensure the best results?!  

 Plus, we’ve got a super-awesome returning guest to help us out… 

Please welcome back Paul Baker, Director of Inside Out Property Inspections, qualified Carpenter and Registered Builder Practitioner with the Victorian Building Authority! A man of many trades, Paul also holds a Pest Control License with many years of experience inspecting residential homes…. 

 Basically, he’s THE man for turning the building industry inside out and giving you an expert guide to building and renovating today. Give it a listen now!    

 

 

 

P.S. Fun Fact! Last time Paul was on the couch, it was aalll the way back in Episode 45 😮 and it was also and our first episode of 2016!! 

 

Free Stuff Mentioned… 

 

Want to work with Bryce & Ben’s Award-Winning Team? 

 

Here’s some of the gold we cover… 

  • 0:00 – The Gold Today 
  • 1:50 – Put this in your diaries: PIPA’s 2022 Annual General Meeting!  
  • 3:34 – Our TPC Re-Edition of this ad… 
  • 5:30  Meet Paul Baker!  
  • 7:58 – What are we seeing in the Building Industry today?  
  • 10:02 – Why builders are taking on more of the costs…. 
  • 12:32 – Fixed Price vs. Cost Plus Contracts: What’s the ratio in the market today?  
  • 16:20 Are we overcoming COVID’s supply shortage?!?  
  • 18:48 – Upcoming Trends: Material substitutes and modular builds  
  • 20:48 – For folks halfway through building, how can they increase their chances of a successful build completion?  
  • 23:37 What Building Insurance should you get and who does what??  
  • 26:26 – The Grey Area: Handing over projects between builders  
  • 28:03 Is NOW a good time to be building or renovating?!  
  • 31:48 – A Builders POV: What it’s like having multiple projects on-the-go… 
  • 33:50 – How can we solve Australia’s Building Crisis?  
  • 34:09 “Good staff is your business…”  
  • 36:11 How do different-sized businesses “compete”?  
  • 40:39  The Material Shortage Story: How are builders overcoming it??   
  • 43:05 What was it like having Ben as a client? 😉  
  • 44:10 What trends has Paul seen over the past 12 months?  
  • 47:24 – This is actually the best time for…. 
  • 51:04 – What should you be asking to verify a Building Inspector?  
  • 53:20 – Ben’s BIG Tip for Beginners!  

And… 

 

415 | When Do Out-Of-Pocket Costs Become Too Much?

One person doesn’t know if their properties are worth the out-of-pocket costs. 💸 

Another couple isn’t sure if they should strike when the market is hot….or if it’s best to wait. 

And another investor just wants to know, ‘Are we absolutely sure that Queensland’s Land Tax is off the table?!?’  

 

We’re back with another mega-exciting Q&A Day that speaks to the Psychology of Investing, especially in an environment with rising costs and interest rates. 😮  

From the common mindset blocks that investors face (like loss aversion and sunk cost) to how you can carve a path for yourself when you just don’t know what to do next…  

We’re unpacking why investing isn’t for everyone, the Quality of Living trade-offs, how and why you’d want to split your variable and fixed rates and tons more wisdom!  

Basically folks, this episode has a bit of gold (and anxious feelings) that we can all relate to.  

PLUS, Bryce and Ben unpack and explain CoreLogic’s recent release on the 2022-23 Federal Budget and what the RBA’s recent rate hike reflects about us as consumers.  

Another fantastic episode filled with your awesome questions, tune in now folks!  

 

 

P.S. And if you want help identifying the next step on your investing path, book a free, 100% no-obligation consultation with our award-winning team of Property Investment Advisors here.  

 

Questions We Answer

Question 1: Anonymous on Confirmation that QLD Land tax is off the table 

Hi Ben 

I’m a property investor contemplating my next purchase.  

I heard that due to lack of support QLD’s premier has had to back-track on her proposed new land tax which would see the subject tax calculated on one’s total Australian land holdings (where before was only based on holdings in QLD).  

Reason I am touching base is the QLD premier stated she would have to revoke the proposal and would have to be tabled and passed in parliament. Not understanding this process, I wondered if you might know whether the proposal has been formally revoked and/or if you can advise how or where I could direct this enquiry to obtain absolute proof this land tax is now off the table.  

LOL, there is no way I would want to proceed buying in QLD knowing the new land tax could send me broke.  I need to see it set in stone.  😂 Thanks for any help you can offer. 

 

Question 2: Travis on Out of pocket expenses to maintain to IP 

Hi gents hope you are well. 

My question and advice relates to out-of-pocket expenses for me to hold 2 investment properties, because at the moment after all costs and tax rebates I’m around 15-18k PA out of pocket. I own a ppr and have a vic & qld IP.  

My Moorr platform is up to date and has me in the surplus of 4K per month but only at the moment. 

My issue is I don’t see current benefits with the high out of pocket expenses which are only going to increase & a couple of costly expenses to address on each property with water issues one being a requirement to put in a pit drain to tackle storm water and the other a fixed awning to combat heavy rain over a balcony, 4K and 3.5k respectively. 

With all this expense and the impact on quality of life due to concerns of having to pay for the next big cost I wonder if it’s even worth it. 

I have spoken with my advisor and informs me it’s ok but I wonder if this is sustainable or do I sell out for a more comfortable quality of living. 

I appreciate that there is some sacrifices but 15-18k YOY with little prospect of that moving to a favorable portfolio holding I just don’t see. 

To add there will be continuous improvements to spend in the coming years just to keep up with the age of the properties and keep them fresh I don’t feel rental increases will help the catch up. 

Please share your advice and thoughts. 

 

Question 3: Rose on A question on paying investment loans 

Hi Ben and Bryce, 

This is Rose, I love the podcast and have really enjoyed the personal stories in your summer series. I’ve never heard of financial anorexia before, but I definitely have it. So I was wondering if you could give me some guidance. 

I bought a small investment property August 2021. I had a lucky guess that interest rates where going to go up sooner than the RBA was suggesting, and I fixed the whole loan at a lower rate than the bank offered for the variable. 

However, this means I don’t have an offset account and I’m only aloud to pay off extra up to a limited amount per year. 

This is an investment loan, and the property is positively geared. 

I’ve heard old adages about how you shouldn’t pay off investment loans because they’re tax deductible, but the saver in me wants to pay down the loan. 

So I’m asking you two as the experts, should I still pay off extra on my property investment loan now, while I have a low rate for a few years, or just keep paying back the minimum and invest the extra money elsewhere?
 

Question 4: K on Using equity – the now or never mentality 

Hey gents,

Thirty-something female listener here from Sydney, and big fan of all your work. You made lockdown liveable – thank you.

While I have met with one of your team already for a free consultation, I have to say I am finding taking the plunge my biggest challenge

My partner and I will be having a baby within a year, and have some modest “rainy day” savings in our offset – which took a few years to build. We purchased our home (PPR) in late 2020 and also have an investment property (unit) in Sydney purchased in 2018.

We now have a window of opportunity to use the equity in our home and investment property to buy our next investment and scale up.

I note in a recent Q&A episode you talked about borrowing capacity (for some) decreasing over time and becoming a tad harder, plus the mortgage environment will be generally more challenging with interest rates hikes etc.

I am not afraid of the macro changes going on in the world too much, but the ultimate question is: do we strike while the iron is hot, or wait?

The challenges ahead aren’t small (new human on the way, parental leave considerations, reduced income, rising interest rates etc)?

Please help.
K, Sydney.

 

Free Stuff Mentioned… 

  • Other Episodes Mentioned:  

 

Want to work with Bryce & Ben’s Award-Winning Team? 

 

Here’s some of the gold we cover… 

  • 0:00 – This week we’re tackling… 
  • 1:21 We’ve had a MASSIVE upgrade to our Lifestyle By Design platform!! Check it out here.  
  • 7:44 Quick Recap: CoreLogic, the RBA rate hike & Hot Property Data 
  • 10:33 – Feeling uneasy? This is what you should do. 
  • 13:02 Here’s how a previous TPC Guest is implementing our lessons…. 
  • 16:01 Why you should chase your curiosity!  
  • 17:28 Q1) Confirmation that QLD Land Tax is off the table 
  • 18:35 The process behind amending legislation like this!  
  • 20:40 Off-Ramping: Why you shouldn’t be concerned…. 
  • 24:03 Q2) Out-of-pocket expenses to maintain an IP 
  • 26:00 This a classic conundrum that investors face…  
  • 27:56 The Psychology of Investing: Sum Cost, Loss Aversion & Comfortable Quality of Living 
  • 29:06 – Over the long term, THIS disappears… 
  • 30:25  Here’s how Travis can face his anxiety 
  • 31:47 THIS is why some people aren’t suited to be property investors
  • 33:28 “You don’t believe it”  
  • 36:45 Why investing is just like a bottle of wine… 
  • 39:16 Q3) A question on paying investment loans 
  • 40:19 What is Financial Anorexia?  
  • 41:20 Some of the catches to consider…  
  • 42:49 How to split your variable and fixed rates  
  • 44:18 Ben’s Answer (In theory)  
  • 46:01 What’s the benefit of going part-variable?  
  • 46:51 Q4) Using equity – the now or never mentality  
  • 48:29 Why you should focus on long-term horizons!  
  • 51:04 How to find your pathway forward…(Psstt…if you’d like help with this, why not book a free, no-obligation consultation with one of our highly qualified Property Wealth Planning advisors here.)  
  • 54:30 The 3 Golden Dials!  
  • 57:03 – How we make the “Invisible, Visible” 

And… 

  • 1:01:47 Made a mistake on your iPhone calculator? Here’s how you can wipe your last move 
  • 1:02:58 Why Re-grading Property Investment in Cairns is outrageous!  
  • 1:08:08 Keep the Qs coming folks! Submit them on Speakpipe.  

 

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