The RBA raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% this afternoon. Unanimously. It’s the fourth rise this year and the highest the cash rate has been in 15 years.

Six weeks ago in our August update, the conversation was about whether one more rise was coming. Today it’s about whether there’ll be a fifth.

And following the announcement, eight of the nine economists Evan was following now consider the November meeting a live possibility.

Which brings us to the uncomfortable part.

The property correction is broadening

This is no longer just a Sydney and Melbourne story.

Based on the latest figures Ben presented during the LIVE, the major capitals were on track to record further monthly declines: Brisbane down 1.3%, Adelaide 1.2%, Sydney 1.2%, Perth 1.1%, Melbourne 0.7%, and the combined capitals down 1.1%.

What’s particularly interesting is the changing picture in Brisbane and Perth. Both markets had been comparatively strong through the previous cycle, but the latest indicators suggest they’re now recording larger monthly declines than Melbourne.

Listings tell the other half of the story.

Brisbane is carrying around 57% more advertised stock than a year ago, although that’s coming off a relatively low base. In Sydney and Melbourne, which are further through the correction, new listings are actually falling. That’s textbook property-market behaviour, and it’s worth understanding why.

A house isn’t on the market until someone decides to sell it. When prices start going backwards, discretionary vendors who don’t need to sell may simply withdraw their properties instead. That reduces the number of homes available and can help limit further price falls.

The flip side is showing up in parts of regional Australia, where some properties are spending longer on the market. Ben and Evan discussed vendors withdrawing properties after unsuccessful sales campaigns and returning them to the rental market instead.

So while buyers may have more negotiating power in some markets, the available supply can change as sellers respond to falling prices.

Now for the part nobody enjoys

Ben had a particularly memorable warning for investors who bought multiple properties in a short period, relying heavily on rising values: “One or two more rate rises, and I’ll tell you what, that’s a swimming naked moment.”

It’s a colourful way of making a serious point: a portfolio built on paper gains and thin cash flow buffers can become vulnerable when market conditions change.

And conditions have certainly changed.

Rates have risen four times this year. Property values are under pressure across the major capitals. Australia’s unemployment rate has edged up to 4.6%, and Ben and Evan discussed the possibility of further weakness in the labour market as higher interest rates continue to work through the economy.

If your own portfolio is starting to feel the strain, the useful response isn’t panic. It’s arithmetic.

Run your numbers on the assumption that the cash rate reaches 4.85%. Consider what another increase could mean for your actual loan repayments, particularly if your lender passes on the full increase.

Don’t expect new supply to arrive overnight

One of the more sobering parts of the session was the discussion about construction.

Ben highlighted figures suggesting a home now takes roughly 31 to 33 months to deliver, from initial engagement and planning approvals through to completion. In 2015, he noted, that process took around 11 months. That’s nearly two additional years.

And with construction productivity going backwards, Ben and Evan questioned how Australia can meet its target of 1.2 million new homes by 2029.

This matters for more than just new home buyers.

When it takes longer and costs more to build, housing supply struggles to respond to demand. Meanwhile, existing property investors are dealing with higher financing, maintenance and operating costs.

That creates an interesting tension in the market. Property values can fall while rental pressures remain, particularly in locations where demand continues to outstrip available housing. Of course, that doesn’t mean rents will rise everywhere. Local supply, tenant affordability and market conditions still matter. But it does help explain why falling house prices don’t automatically solve Australia’s broader housing affordability problem.

And it’s one reason Ben and Evan will be spending more time on productivity in their next update.

Watch the full session

Ben and Evan went considerably deeper than this.

They explored the productivity problem sitting underneath Australia’s inflation challenges, why the RBA had so heavily signalled today’s decision, what the latest labour market figures are telling us and what’s happening across the US, China and Europe.

And, of course, what all of it could mean for Australia’s property market.

Watch the replay →

The next economic and RBA update is Tuesday 3 November — Melbourne Cup Day — with a deep dive into productivity, which is arguably the single biggest factor in where all of this lands.

Is your mortgage still competitive?

With the cash rate now at a 15-year high, it’s worth checking whether your existing loan is still competitive.

That might be as simple as calling your bank and asking them to review your interest rate.

But if you’d like a clearer picture of what else may be available, our Mortgage Broking team at Empower Wealth can review your current loan, compare the market and help you understand whether there may be an opportunity to negotiate, refinance or restructure.

Because when rates are this high, “set and forget” can quietly become expensive.