There’s a good chance the Reserve Bank will leave the cash rate exactly where it is on Tuesday.

All four major banks are forecasting a hold, the latest inflation figures were softer than expected and the immediate pressure for another increase appears to have eased.

So, case closed?

Not quite.

Because when it comes to an RBA announcement, the headline number is only part of the story. What the Board says about inflation, employment, household spending and the months ahead can tell us far more about where the economy (and the property market) may be heading next.

That’s why Ben Kingsley and behavioural economist Evan Lucas will once again be going LIVE on Tuesday, 11 August, covering the RBA’s announcement as it happens and unpacking what it actually means.

Set a reminder for the live stream →

What are we expecting the RBA to do?

The RBA will announce its next cash rate decision at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday, 11 August.

The cash rate currently sits at 4.35%, following three consecutive increases in February, March and May. Together, those increases lifted the cash rate from 3.60% to 4.35% in the space of just a few months.

Then, in June, the Board hit pause.

Since then, the economic picture has shifted again. The latest inflation figures showed annual headline inflation easing to 3.8%, while trimmed mean inflation — an important measure of underlying inflation watched closely by the RBA — came in at 3.6%.

That result was softer than many economists had expected and changed expectations for the August meeting considerably.

Westpac, which had previously forecast another increase, moved to a hold. That means all four major banks are now expecting the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged on Tuesday.

But here’s where it gets interesting: inflation is still above the RBA’s 2–3% target range. So even if rates remain on hold, it doesn’t necessarily mean the risk of another increase has disappeared entirely.

What we’ll actually be listening for

Most of the headlines on Tuesday afternoon will focus on one question: Did the cash rate change?

But Ben and Evan will be watching for something bigger:

  • What does the RBA believe is happening underneath the headline data?
  • Does it think inflation is moving in the right direction quickly enough?
  • Are the earlier rate increases slowing household spending and economic activity as expected?
  • Is the labour market beginning to soften?
  • And what would need to happen for the Board to raise rates again… or eventually begin considering a reduction?

The answers may be found in the language of the RBA’s statement, its assessment of the economy and Governor Bullock’s commentary following the decision. That is the part Ben and Evan will help translate into plain English.

What Ben and Evan will cover live

Ben and Evan will be live before, during and after the announcement.

Before the decision
They’ll recap what has changed since the RBA’s previous meeting, look at the latest economic data and share their predictions for what the Board may announce.

As the announcement lands
At 2:30pm AEST, they’ll cover the decision live and begin unpacking the RBA’s statement in real time. No waiting for the evening news to tell you what happened, or trying to interpret central bank language on your own.

After the decision
Ben and Evan will explore the bigger economic picture, including:

  • Inflation and the cost of living
  • Employment and wages
  • Household spending
  • Borrowing conditions
  • The Australian property market
  • Global economic developments
  • What the decision could mean for rates from here

And because it’s live, you can join the conversation in the YouTube chat as it all unfolds.

Set a reminder and watch the RBA announcement LIVE!

If the video above hasn’t refreshed by 2pm, refresh the page or head over to our YouTube channel to join the live discussion.

Can’t make it live? The replay will be available afterwards. But let’s be honest… watching Ben and Evan react to the announcement in real time is half the fun.

See you live on Tuesday.