Property Prices After Tax Reform:

Fact vs Fiction

The Federal Budget has landed, and with it, major changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax.

So what could this mean for investors, home buyers, renters and property prices?

In this live webinar, Ben Kingsley cuts through the headlines, separates fact from fiction, and unpacks the likely ripple effects across the Australian property market — including buyer behaviour, rental supply, lending conditions and the risks facing some regional markets.

A quick heads-up: this session is technical and in-depth, so it’s worth taking your time with it. And make sure you stick around for the Q&A at the end — that’s where some of the most practical questions were answered and, as Ben cheekily put it, those who hung around deserved “something a little bit more magical as well.”

Timestamps:

• 00:00 – Welcome & why this webinar matters
• 06:01 – A goals-based value investing approach
• 09:45 – Why Australians invest in property
• 10:50 – Moorr’s Negative Gearing Analysis Tool demo
• 12:54 – Why negative gearing may be deferred, not lost
• 14:18 – Comparing properties side by side
• 17:01 – Why capital growth is still the main game
• 17:32 – Property vs shares: why property prices behave differently
• 22:44 – Market liquidity and why thin markets can be risky
• 27:08 – Structural demand: population growth and shrinking household size
• 31:48 – Buyer behaviour and future demand
• 36:26 – Where will the money come from to push prices higher?
• 41:09 – Intergenerational wealth transfer and future property demand
• 46:09 – Cycle amplifiers: what moves prices in the short term
• 52:03 – The core drivers of long-term land value
• 57:04 – Ricardian Rent Theory: why some land is worth more
• 58:28 – Accessibility and the AMM Theory
• 59:56 – Agglomeration economies and why cities compound demand
• 01:01:20 – Amenity, lifestyle and spatial equilibrium
• 01:04:39 – Sydney vs Wagga: population, jobs and land values
• 01:15:06 – How you can stuff it up?
• 01:20:53 – Buying Established vs new property
• 01:31:26 – What should investors do now?
• 01:36:05 – Live Q&A begins
• 01:36:24 – Self-Reliant Regional Markets Explained
• 01:37:33 – Boutique Units in Sydney Middle-Ring Suburbs
• 01:39:02 – When Do New Builds Make Sense?
• 01:40:33 – High-Speed Rail & Property Prices
• 01:42:23 – Bigger Land Further Out vs Smaller Land Closer In
• 01:44:08 – Will Investors Keep Chasing Cheap High-Yield Property?
• 01:46:39 – Building in Regional Areas vs Established Property
• 01:49:24 – Trust Structures Under New Tax Rules
• 01:50:26 – Buy Now or Wait for a Bigger Deposit?
• 01:51:28 – First Home Buyer: Buy Now or Wait for Property Price Dips?
• 01:53:16 – Can Deferred Negative Gearing Losses Offset Share Gains?
• 01:55:07 – When Will the Budget Changes Become Law?
• 01:55:45 – New Build in Good Location vs Established Property
• 01:57:27 – Geelong Units vs Ballarat Property
• 01:58:40 – 2027 Property Valuations & CGT Changes
• 02:00:08 – Helping Kids Build a Deposit Under the New Rules
• 02:02:08 – Should You Sell a Regional Property?