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466 | Like a Snake swallowing a Goat: Why interest rates aren’t controlling inflation – Chat with Nerida Conisbee


 

With today’s geopolitical tensions and growing inflation uncertainty, how is Australia’s commercial, construction and property sectors faring?

Plus, what can we expect from next week’s cash rate decision and why has this instrument been so ineffective in stopping inflation?!

Their big questions folks and luckily, here to help us unpack them is Nerida Conisbee, our good friend and Chief Economist at Ray White!

Nerida is a leading property expert who sits as the Chair of the Construction Forecasting Council and is a member of the Australian Taxation Office’s Foreign Investment Stakeholder Group.

As someone who provides regular updates on property market conditions to major Government bodies, Nerida will share her fantastic insights and help us to unpack…

 

👉 Why Australia needs to embrace density!
👉 Why has the Cash Rate been ineffective in dealing with inflation?
👉 How can tax concessions solve our housing supply problems?
👉 Are office assets no longer a safe class?!
👉 The commercial sector’s newest focus
👉 The property class that’s become most listed on Ray White, and
👉 A breakdown of CoreLogic’s November report!

Another timely and insightful property and economic update from Nerida, tune in now folks!

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

  • Check our Nerida’s previous episodes here >> (Tune in to 7:36 of Ep 358 to hear her Money Backstory!)
  • Read CoreLogic’s November Report here >>
  • Read PIPA’s 2023 Sentiment Survey (from What’s Making Property News!) here >>

 

Timestamps

  • 0:00 – Like a Snake swallowing a Goat: Why interest rates aren’t controlling inflation
  • 3:45 – Mindset Minute: If you squeeze an orange…
  • 6:34 – Welcome back Nerida!
  • 8:29 – The ACIF & Australia’s construction industry
  • 12:35 – How does industry impact Government Bodies?
  • 15:48 – Inflation uncertainty + Cash Rate predictions!
  • 19:50 – How can we get rid of NIBYSM with our spending?
  • 22:44 – Why the Cash Rate has been ineffective with controlling inflation
  • 25:50 – The Biggest Headwinds in Housing
  • 29:39 – CoreLogic’s November Report: The strongest market in Australia, price growth, and more…
  • 33:01 – Why we need to embrace density!
  • 36:34 – Using tax concessions to solve short-term housing supply…
  • 42:26 – The newest focus of the commercial sector!
  • 45:13 – These properties have seen the greatest changes in listings
  • 50:20 – Wow! Thank you Nerida 😊

And…

  • 52:07 – Lifehack: The Secret Behind Long Life
  • 56:50 – WMPN: What are investors looking to get out of property?

 

458 | Are We At The Turning Point? From Slow Growth To A Surge in Listings – Chat with Tim Lawless

Want to know what areas are booming with new listings?   

Or when the market tide will turn?    

Or even, how real estate agents accurately research and predict market trends?  

Well folks, returning to the couch for the FIFTH time (Yep. We seriously can’t get enough of this awesome guest!!) is: CoreLogic’s Research Director, Tim Lawless!  

He is one of Australia’s leading property market analysts and commentators who also heads a team of analysts in Australia and New Zealand. Together with his team, he provides reports on property market conditions and the interplay between economic and demographic forces.  

In this episode, we’ll be unpacking it all, from the economic and market conditions we’re seeing today to the surprising Winter data that was recorded and – of course – what this means for Buyers and Sellers alike as Spring approaches. 

Plus, we make the most of Tim’s super data-charged brain as he reveals the biggest factors impacting the affordability story this spring and the standout markets to watch for.   

A seriously insightful episode for investors heading into the spring buying season. Get prepared and give it a listen now! 😊 

 

 Give it a listen now or watch the Episode below! 

 

Free Stuff Mentioned… 

  • Research like a real estate agent! Check out CoreLogic now (Formerly RP Data).  
  • Discover the newest housing market trends this spring in CoreLogic’s August Property Pulse Report.  
  • Want more data-rich insights from Tim Lawless?  Listen to his previous episodes here.  

 

Here’s some of the gold we cover… 

  • 0:00 – Welcome back for the 5th time, Tim Lawless!  
  • 2:59 – Inside the Lawless household 
  • 4:47 – The newest CoreLogic report & the market today 
  • 10:38 The Resurgence of Fresh Listings! 
  • 11:49 – Navigating the Rate Hiking Rollercoaster 
  • 12:51 – The sellers’ waiting game  
  • 14:40 – Winter data and the upward trend no one expected 😮 
  • 16:49 – Why Tim thinks housing prices will balance out soon… 
  • 18:53 – Is the Fixed Rate Cliff real?  
  • 19:59 – Are borrowers falling behind on their mortgages?  
  • 21:50 – Stock Levels & Standout Markets! 
  • 24:07 – The Biggest Factors Impacting the Affordability Story  
  • 27:07 APRA is limiting our borrowing power… 
  • 29:04 – Population growth & migration on the housing market 
  • 31:04 Which areas have had the biggest rise in listings?   
  • 34:21 – …And here’s the ones with the lowest listings! (EXPLAINED!)  
  • 35:34 The hotspot drivers you should be looking for     
  • 40:27 – What game are you playing as an investor?  
  • 41:51 – How do Real Estate Agents research & predict the market?  
  • 45:25 The Turning Point: S_n_im_ _t is the key factor!   
  • 49:12 – Spring Season Preview: What Lies Ahead?  

And… 

  • 50:40 Thank You Tim + Key Takeaways!  
  • 54:05 Lifehack: How to easily see written transcripts on YouTube  
  • 55:51 What’s Making Property News: 2024 changes to tax brackets – how does it impact you?  

 

Want to work with Bryce & Ben’s Award-Winning Team? 

 

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Log in or create your free account via the Moorr web platform, or download the app on Apple and Android and transform the way you view and track your wealth. 

 

412 | The Best & Worst Performing Markets Over 30 Years! – Chat With Tim Lawless

With a developing rental crisis, interest rates still rising and an economy unsure if it’ll be pulled into a recession

It’s no surprise that there’s been A LOT of noise around what today’s data means for the future of Australia’s economy and property market.   

To slice through this noise (and bringing our guest streak to 3 weeks) we’ve brought in one of Australia’s biggest data-crunching experts and previous Property Couch guest… 

Please welcome back…

CoreLogic’s Research Division Founder, Tim Lawless!  

As Executive Research Director of CoreLogic, Tim heads up a team of analysts in Australia and New Zealand, reporting on property market conditions and the interplay between economic and demographic forces (phew talk about wide coverage!)   

Tune in to hear his origin story, from growing up in a law-less money household to meeting his wife Helen who turned his financial picture around.  

Fast forward to today where Tim sits at the coal face of Australia’s housing data; he’s breaking down what REALLY happened to housing values in September… 

And why, especially during times like these, it’s important to play the long game (using the last 30 years of housing values as proof!)  

PLUS, we unpack the market winners and losers over this period to highlight some valuable market lessons.  

Listen in now folks to get a true understanding of what the figures really mean! 😲 🤯

 

Free Stuff Mentioned… 

 

Want to work with Bryce & Ben’s Award-Winning Team? 

 

Here’s some of the gold we cover… 

  • 0:00 – A sneak peek of today 😊  
  • 1:34 – Yep…we’re giving you 2 bonuisodes?!  
  • 3:37 – This is how expensive procrastination really is!  
  • 5:56 – Meet Tim Lawless!  
  • 8:30 – Growing up in a law-less money household!  
  • 10:50 – THIS played a crucial role in increasing transparency around property investing!  
  • 12:03 – The best advice Tim ever received ( + life after buying his first property)  
  • 13:02 – So…how did he set up his money management systems??  
  • 13:53  Highlights from Australia’s Housing Values in September  
  • 15:59 – Did the 25-basis points cash hike surprise Tim??  
  • 16:56 – We might find the housing bottom out in…early 2023?!  
  • 18:38 Should we expect a confidence shift in this market cycle??  
  • 20:48 – APRA’s 3% Buffer: Will it be relaxed?  
  • 22:29 “It was an absolute cash grab…”  
  • 24:20 – QLD’s new forecast post the scrapped land tax…  
  • 25:40 The 30-Year Long Game: Why is it important??  
  • 27: 59 – Folks, if you’ve got market anxiety, let this sink in… 
  • 30:01 Comparing House Values Across the Decades: Why did we see these results?  
  • 32:26 – This reflects the strength of our economy… 
  • 34:55 – What we saw in Perth is a reflection of these cycles!  
  • 36:47 – Which markets were the best performing over 30 years?? (The Regional winner might surprise you!)  
  • 38:10 …and the lowest-performing markets! 
  • 40:23 – What degree of effort is put into the research at an SA2, SA3 and SA4 level?  
  • 43:27 – Why measuring home values is a difficult task… 
  • 44:24 – Where are the top #3 SA3 areas?!  
  • 46:48 – The Importance of Scarcity Value 
  • 47:25 – We’ve said it once, we’ll say it again: It’s time in the market, not timing the market!  
  • 50:30 Check out THIS graph (bottom of page 1) summarising growth and volatility over the past 30 years!  
  • 53:29 Houses Vs. Units: Tim’s 5-Year Predictions!  
  • 56:22 – Will regional markets outgrow cities?!  

And… 

  • 1:00:09 – Our Key Takeaways 
  • 1:03:10 – How to avoid absorbing negative property noise!  
  • 1:05:38 – We need to allow borrowers to borrow!  
  • 1:06:07 – Want to learn how to beat the banks? Watch this.  
  • 1:07:34 – Bryce & Ben’s Bowling & Bingo Escapades  

 

380 | Is the Property Market Past its Peak?

With Australia’s housing boom slowing and interest rates on the horizon, folks it’s finally time to ask… 

Is the property market past its peak?! 

To help us answer this question we’re doing a deep data dive into CoreLogic’s Hedonic Home Value Index February report!

We’ll be unpacking the cycle just passed, its monthly and annual data, and what it means for our future…

 

But remember folks: We’re talking about the peak rate of growth!

While this means we probably won’t see the same level of growth in 2021, it does NOT mean you shouldn’t invest for the rest of the year!!

We’re also making some projections into 2022’s capital growth, breaking it down to the positives and negatives we expect to see in demand and supply.

You can expect us to cover everything from population movement to immigration, commuting to climate change and more!! 

 

But before you go check out the podcast, we’ve got a special announcement…

IT’s OUR 7th BIRTHDAY!

(Well, it was last week but time flies when you’re having fun 😉). A huge thank you to the Stig, our team, and all our listeners and contributors who make us what we are! 

But back to the good stuff… this episode has loads of future predictions that could help you make the best decisions in 2022, so tune in now!

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s what we cover…

  • 2:28 – It’s our birthday! (Well belated 😉) A big THANK YOU to all our listeners!
  • 4:40 – Oldrentvestor aka. Jane, contact us for a free “Start & Build” course! You’ve warmed our hearts.
  • 7:10 – Break the Cycle. Be the Change.
  • 9:30 – What we saw over the past cycle (and what caused it!)
  • 12:00 – 2 important indicators that investors should research
  • 14:14 – Data diving into the numbers!
  • 15:54 – Median house values have tipped over THIS mark in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane
  • 17:05 – We’re seeing the ___ of the cycle! (In terms of RATE OF GROWTH)
  • 18:15 – The Australian property market through the pandemic till now.
  • 21:00 – What do we mean by markets within markets?
  • 23:38 – Why Perth is in for an interesting ride…
  • 24:50 – The ____ quartile has seen the greatest growth (And what this means!)
  • 26:40 – What is Hobart’s income story?
  • 28:00 – Just remember THIS when people are talking about debt!
  • 28:55 – Looking forward to 2022 (In terms of future capital growth!)
  • 29:46 – Demand negatives: The who, what, why and when of Population Movement
  • 32:28 – The Affordability Story
  • 35:00 – How Queensland’s floods are impacting property markets
  • 36:40 – Demand positives: Immigration and home ownership
  • 37:40 – The Government’s forecast for incoming travellers!
  • 41:17 – As property prices slow, ____ will go higher
  • 42:20 – Supply Positives: Cost to build, normalisation of markets and more!
  • 44:55 – Why is Nimbyism good for capital growth?
  • 46:35 – Supply Negatives: Commutable markets
  • 51:00 – Remember it’s the long-term game folks!
  • 51:33 – Our 2022 predictions
  • 54:05 – Have you thought to use THIS as a portable phone stand?

 

 

 

143 | When will the Power of Big Data and AI decide the Real Value of your Property? Chat with Greg Dickason, Chief Technology Officer at CoreLogic

Big Data. Artificial Intelligence. When will it start calling the shots?

As promised, here’s our LIVE PODCAST from the Sydney Property Buyers Expo on the weekend! So if you missed our nail-biting chat with Greg Dickason, Chief Technology Officer at Corelogic, we have you covered!

First things first: CoreLogic is THE number 1 data provider in the world for property-related insights. Interested in learning the latest from a mouth that’s had a taste of what’s in store? Us too.

What can you expect?

  • Who is CoreLogic providing its data to? (and why it REALLY matters!)
  • What does Greg do in his role that will surprise you?
  • How and where does CoreLogic collects its data and how are they analysed?
  • When will this data transform the property industry?
  • How will you make property decisions in the future?
  • Is it possible for data to choose a property for you?
  • Top tips from Greg on how to use data to help you in buying your next property.
  • Can you buy this data yourself? How much is it?
  • BEN ANNOUNCES PICA (Property Investors Council of Australia)!!
  • Where can you access this data, right now?

Listen to the episode now.

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