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377 | Property Market Outlook 2022 – Chat with Nerida Conisbee

It’s that time of year when everyone is interested in where the property market is going… And so are we!

That is why we’ve gone and locked in a chat with Australia’s most quoted property commentator, Nerida Conisbee, a great friend to the show as well as Chief Economist at Ray White!

Before we spill all the great things on Nerida’s 2022 Outlook, we want to take a moment and thank all our Summer Series Guests!

It was an honour and privilege to have all of them on the show and we cannot thank them enough for their honesty and transparency on their transformation journey. And if you’ve been equally inspired by their stories, we want you to take action this year and get in touch with us when the time comes for the next Summer Series!

Now folks, back to today’s episode…

If you’ve been listening to us for some time, you would know that Nerida is no stranger to the show. With an innate ability to explain complex economic (and sometimes political) scenarios in a simple and easy to digest manner, Nerida will be reviewing the year just gone.

Of course, that’s not all! (This episode is called 2022 Property Market Outlook after all!)

We’ll be unpacking some of the expected market movement this year, interest rate hikes, affordability and heaps more!

 

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Here’s what we cover…

  • 3:30 – Do you need help with setting up/reviewing your Money SMARTS?
  • 6:30 – Here’s your New Year Resolution from us 😉
  • 7:08 – We’ve got a present for our listener called “Mumof5grownups” who left us a review on iTunes! If that’s you, reach out to us right now at [email protected].
  • 8:08 – Wanna get free access to our Start & Build Course (RRP: $497)?
  • 8:48 – Mindset Minute: Why are the bad days more important than the good days?
  • 10:30 – Meet Nerida Conisbee, our  long-time friend and Chief Economist at Ray White
  • 12:45 – What did the government fail to do but the pandemic didn’t?
  • 14:35 – THIS market was incredibly HOT in 2021… Will it continue in 2022?
  • 17:01 – Which market will be affected by the reopening of international borders?
  • 18:50 – Will the disparity between the house and unit market increase?
  • 21:12 – Is this the Golden Decade for Brisbane?
  • 23:45 – The Affordability Debate and our upcoming Federal Election
  • 26:40 – The rise of the holiday homes!
  • 30:37 – Initiatives to increase supply and improve affordability
  • 32:30 – What can we learn from Singapore’s model on housing supply?
  • 35:15 – The Housing Affordability Inquiry and its challenges
  • 39:50 – Interest rates in 2022! What is the RBA really targeting?
  • 42:40 – Folks, are you ready for a rate hike???
  • 45:38 – The 4th most expensive city in Australia!! Is it sustainable?
  • 50:55 – Will we continue to see a double-digit price growth this year?
  • 53:13 – What will regional markets look like post-pandemic?
  • 56:23 – How are listings looking like in the coming months?

And

  • 59:35 – Renovation tips from Bryce!
  • 1:01:35 – RENT THEFT from the Government?! (#Impossible)

 

 

 

363 | Exodus to the Regions – Will this Trend Reverse? – Chat with Dr Nicola Powell

This data is hot off the press folks!! 🔥🔥🔥

It’s no secret that property prices have grown quite a bit lately, but recent data is showing that we’re breaking records!

Here’s a snippet from Domain’s media release just a week ago:

September Quarter 2021 House Price Report shows Australian house prices experiencing a historical rate of growth at 21.9%, the fastest annual rate of growth on record with median house prices at almost $1 million nationally.

But…what does this mean for both sellers and buyers? Is this likely to stay or are we going to see a crash in the new year? Is this growth even sustainable with our current economy?!

AND…

Will the Regional Exodus Backflip?!!

There are heaps of moving parts here and we know it can get a little overwhelming…

So we’ve outsourced and brought in an expert to help us out.

And yes, we’ve been teasing you about her for the past few weeks so bring on the drum roll please…

🥁🥁🥁

Joining us on the show today is none other than Dr Nicola Powell, Chief of Research & Economics for Domain and one of Australia’s leading property market experts!

With more than 15 years’ research experience that spans academic, government and private sector, Nicola is the leading force behind Domain’s regular data reports that keep the Australian public up to date on what’s happening in the market.

Safe to say that we’re in good hands folks.

Tune in to find out more!

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

  • 1:57 – Mindset minute: It’s better to hang out with people _______ than you, pick out associates whose __________ is better than yours and you’ll _____________.
  • 3:09 – Meet our first-time special guest, Dr Nicola Powell!!
  • 4:00 – How did a science doctorate degree morph into a career in economics?!
  • 5:58 – How she translate hard cold data into behavioural logic and patterns
  • 8:33 – Nicola’s Money Story and what she’s telling her kids now?
  • 11:50 – How did her conservative upbringing shape her money management habits?
  • 13:38 – Where are we RIGHT NOW in our Property Cycle?
  • 14:42 – GROWING AT $1,200 A DAY?!
  • 15:00 – Is this record growth rate expected to continue?
  • 15:46 – Is there any good news from the September Quarter Housing Data?
  • 18:37 – Sydneysiders: Forever Renting or Cross the Borders
  • 20:54 – What has the pandemic accelerated for Sydneysiders?
  • 22:57 – The shift to a different property type…
  • 27:13 – How did the Most Lock-downed City still have a Record Price Growth Rate?!
  • 28:54 – Will the Regional Exodus Backflip?!
  • 30:21 – The biggest social experiment that has proven one key thing…
  • 31:15 – What’s the new buzzword of the pandemic?
  • 32:07 – A little nugget on Price Growth trend!
  • 33:40 – An Aging Population and Its Impact on Supply
  • 36:00 – Areas where they’ll be a risk of a reversal in property price…
  • 39:00 – Is APRA’s Macroprudential changes necessary to influence Demand?
  • 40:53 – When will interest rates start to rise?
  • 42:00 – Which of these two events will trigger the interest rate hike?
  • 43:45 – (HOT) Markets around Australia with still rooms for growth!!
  • 46:08 – Household size and misallocation of housing stocks in Australia…
  • 47:00 – What needs to be disrupted to improve affordability?
  • 48:41 – The Stamp Duty Debate: Lump sum or Annual Repayment?
  • 50:17 – Surprising Find from Domain’s Submission on Housing Affordability…
  • 52:00 – Residential property as an investment class to store family wealth – Yay or Nay?

And of course…

  • 56:37 – A camping trailer life hack that can potentially save your relationship! 😉
  • 59:09  – Ben’s quick update on RBA’s view on their Bond Program

 

 

359 | Locked Down & Locked Out: Buying Property In A Shutdown State! – Chat with Leah Calnan

Is property sliding under the pressure of continual lockdowns?!

Folks, it’s no surprise that Victoria’s extended lockdowns (and indeed lockdowns happening right across the country) are having unintended consequences to property buyers, sellers AND renters.

With Melbourne spending more days in lockdown than ANYWHERE else in the world, it begs the question: How can you buy property in a Shutdown State?!

Here to unpack all this, as well as the Winners & Losers of legislation changes, is returning guest Leah Calnan, President of Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV). Leah has served as REIV President since October 2019 and during this time has seen SIGNIFICANT disruptions and changes to the Victorian property market and Tenancy Act. She has over 24 years’ experience in property management, is the sole Director of Metro Property Management and, of course, is considered one of the industry’s most dedicated, accomplished and senior Property Management practitioners in the country.

Leah is about to give you a behind the scenes look at the stark reality of a property market Locked Down & Locked Out, including the tangible impact this has on property investors, in conjunction with the “VCAT Mess” that’s currently unfolding here in Victoria.

So, is it all doom and gloom? Is it simply Too Much For Too Long for Victorian investors? Is “The Great VIC Exit” fast-approaching?!

Listen now to learn How To Buy Property in a Shutdown State & stay informed of the impact current lockdowns are having on the broader property market.

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

  • 02:13 – FYI: The dark spot on Ben’s forehead…
  • 04:46 – What do you think about this Mindset Minute?!
  • 06:50 – Meet Leah.
  • 07:32 – The Controversial Question we just had to ask!
  • 10:09 – Leah’s first property & money management story…
  • 16:08 – Money Advice for teenagers!
  • 17:14 – Some of the ‘highlights’ as REIV President…
  • 19:15 – Winners & Losers: Legislation Changes!
  • 20:01 – Will these Unintended Consequences further drive investors out of Vic?
  • 21:43 – Which legislation would Leah most like to repeal?!
  • 23:33 – The VCAT MESS!!
  • 26:16 – Have landlords cracked down on the type of tenant they get?
  • 27:42 – Has the legislation change lead to longer first term tenancies?
  • 29:00 – Locked Down & Locked Out!
  • 31:13 – One of the biggest challenges with Victorian lockdowns…
  • 34:09 – What HAS opened up again for buyers?
  • 38:32 – How agents keep potential buyers safe…
  • 40:16 – Can you inspect properties in regional Vic if you live in Melbourne?
  • 42:12 – Is there a “Super Saturday” coming between now and Christmas?
  • 45:53 – The Best Property Management Tips!
  • 48:30 – Why You Should NOT Self-Manage Your Property!
  • 53:28 – How to measure your wealth!
  • 55:25 – What’s Making Property News!?!
  • 55:38 The Scalpel Has Landed: Macroprudential Change Is HERE!

 

 

358 | Too Much Risk? Australian Property & Economic Update – Chat with Nerida Conisbee

Breaking news just in on the property & economic front, folks!

There’s clearly quite a bit going on with the health crisis, soaring property market and… just announced this week… an indication that a tightening of lending might be coming sooner than we think!

Despite price growth in the current market being led primarily by owner-occupiers, the risks around rising household debt may mean that APRA and the financial regulators will step in to prevent the build-up of future risks to the broader economy…

The question is: If they’re going to pull the handbrake, What Would This Look Like and WHEN Would It Happen?

Here to unpack all this, as well as the latest Australian Property & Economic Update is our good friend Nerida Conisbee, Chief Economist at Ray White.

Now, if you’ve heard Nerida’s data-driven insights and wisdom on the show before, you might’ve noticed she’s had a little change in title from Chief Economist at the REA Group… And if you haven’t heard from her before (you’re in for a real treat!) or simply need a refresher: Nerida is a highly regarded economist, with a specific expertise in residential and commercial property. She is currently the MOST quoted property commentator in Australia, the third most quoted economist and a sought-after public speaker, writer and columnist with more than 20 years of property research experience throughout Asia Specific.

So, if you want a PRECISE update on property and economic news here in Australia (and where it’s looking to go from here), then please listen now to get the gold & stay informed.

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

  • 00:40 – Block your ears non-AFL fans 😉
  • 03:28 – Try this word instead.
  • 05:24 – Meet Nerida…
  • 06:04 – The change & data leak
  • 07:36 – Never Before Revealed: Nerida’s Money Backstory!!
  • 10:46 – Does she carry this through with her own family?
  • 13:24 – Nerida’s property story
  • 14:33 – The current economy – What’s going on?!
  • 16:27 – What will likely unfold in the December quarter?
  • 16:57 – What picks up when we come out of lockdown?
  • 17:12 – The Big Challenge: Iron Ore Prices
  • 17:49 – Where will this show up most in the Aus economy?
  • 18:48 – What might happen if we see higher hospital rates?
  • 21:25 – Australia’s Economy­ – What might happen?
  • 22:38 – The Lack of Migration: How Problematic Is It?
  • 23:39 – The Hot Topic: INFLATION
  • 26:00 – Too Much Risk!?!
  • 26:18 – A Trillion Dollars In Debt: Australia’s Debt Hole
  • 26:47 – How are we going to pay that debt back?
  • 28:15 – Property Update!
  • 29:45 – Breaking News: Josh Frydenberg’s Announcement!
  • 30:08 – Household Debt — Where is it currently at?
  • 31:25 – What does Nerida see happening with the regulations?
  • 35:54 – How do you stop people taking on too much debt?
  • 38:30 – What’s happening with First Home Buyers?
  • 41:46 – What you need to know about immigration
  • 45:04 – The Luxury Market: How is it performing?
  • 46:34 – Listing Volumes – What’s happening now?
  • 49:00 – The Future of Commercial Property in CBDs
  • 52:14 – Unemployment Numbers: The Risk Factors
  • 55:21 – How to NOT save $250! (interesting way to look at things…)
  • 56:28 – Pain & Gain: New Data From CoreLogic

 

 

Episode 336 | Is Price Growth Over? 7 Signs Growth Is Slowing – Chat with Tim Lawless

Is the property market showing signs that growth is SLOWING?

Well, according to Tim Lawless, Head of Research at CoreLogic, it IS – and there are 7 tell-tale signs it’s happening!

That’s right. Joining us today is CoreLogic‘s executive research director for Australasia and indeed one of Australia’s leading property market commentators – and Tim’s noticed quite a few interesting trends in the data that reveal a SLOWDOWN on the strongest growth conditions we’ve seen since the 1980s!

So… is price growth over!?!

And what are the seven signs that suggest capital growth might be changing pace?

 

The 7 Signs…

    1. CoreLogic Home Value Index is already indicating __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
    2. Lower __ __
    3. Rise in __ __
    4. A lift in __ __ __
    5. Negative __ __
    6. Less __
    7. High __ __ __

 

Free Stuff Mentioned

 

Here’s What We Cover…

  • 02:18 – Will legislation changes in Victoria affect Airbnb properties?
  • 04:15 – Full Summary of How To Win Friends & Influence People!
  • 07:01 – Meet Tim!
  • 08:04 – Was Tim surprised how much the market bounced back?
  • 09:42 – Why is the housing market so important for Australia’s economy?
  • 11:51 – Why do we generally see the government supporting property when there is a downturn?
  • 13:37 – The Multiplier Effect & The Wealth Effect
  • 14:43 – What’s the biggest barrier to the property market?
  • 15:04 – Does Treasury and Government look at the risks of LVRs and overall debt?
  • 15:36 – The 4 Key Metrics APRA Monitors Very Closely…
  • 16:15 – Will there be credit tightening coming soon?
  • 18:23 – What would this credit tightening look like?
  • 20:53 – The 7 signs the housing market is moving through peak growth…
  • 21:39 – What’s the catalyst that normally causes a slowdown?
  • 23:56Sign #1 – What’s the hedonic value measuring?
  • 26:47 – Which capital cities are showing this slowdown (and which ones AREN’T)!?!
  • 27:01 – Is this a DOWNWARD trajectory… or just a slowdown in growth?
  • 29:44 – Sign #2 – What’s happening with Auction Clearance Rates?
  • 32:17 – Sign #3 – What’s rising?
  • 34:08 – Sign #4 – What’s lifting that’s contributing to the slowing growth?
  • 35:50 – What’s happening with high rise developments?
  • 36:05 – Unit oversupply: What’s going on?
  • 36:40 – How many investors buy mid to high rise apartments?
  • 38:04 – When will inner city apartments bounce back?
  • 39:05 – If there’s not as many investors in the market, will APRA still need to intervene?
  • 40:20 – Why is the level of household debt so closely monitored?
  • 42:10 – Serviceability assessments…
  • 42:38 – Sign #5 – Negative Population Growth… let’s unpack it!
  • 43:17 – How have property prices grown WITHOUT population growth, anyway?
  • 46:39 – Sign #6 – When Fiscal Support gets taken out of the economy…
  • 49:05 – Why does the government offer grants for NEW properties, not existing?
  • 50:54 – Sign #7 – Where Housing Affordability Comes In…
  • 52:21 – How long does it take to save a deposit across the different states?
  • 56:48 – When was the last time we saw all markets rising like we have?
  • 58:04 – How is CoreLogic measuring the shift to regional markets?

 

And

  • 1:02:10 – Key Takeaways from the episode…

 

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