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Controlling the housing asset bubble

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Remember back in Episode 152 where we talked about the Australian Property Market and housing affordability? Ben mentioned the Affordability Conference that he attended back in 2017 and in one of the presentations, there was Dr. Danika Wright’s talk on the housing bubble in Australia and the concept of irrational exuberance.

If you’re interested in her presentation slides, just fill in the form below and we’ll send it to your nominated email.

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ps: We’ve got heaps of other Free Resources on the site! Make sure to check them all out here.

152 | Bad News for The Australian Property Market

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We’re sorry to bring you Bad News while you’re on holidays.

Unfortunately, we have heard some negative talk out there and, well, we think it’s best you know. So, today’s podcast is a little on the “doom and gloom” side, we’re afraid.

We’re talking about the correction in the market. We’ve all seen the property prices in Sydney come down a bit, and we’ve all heard (perhaps too much) about the Bubble…. Is today the day it finally burst?

 

A longtime listener from Singapore, Saxton, left us a rather distressing voicemail message:

“I want to ask you about the article that was published by Matt Barrie the CEO of freelancer in Australia where he painted a very negative and bleak future about Australia’s future prospects and described the Australian property market as a bubble built upon a bubble, built upon a bubble; namely mining and commodities. Anyway, it’s a long article and I would love to hear your negation on some of his gloomy outlook and why property is still a good bet moving forward.”

 

If you’ve read the article… you’ll know it’s pretty bleak. Also what’s interesting is that Matt Barrie isn’t a property expert — note that his business has nothing to do with property — and on social media channels he is, which makes sense, an “influencer”. And influencers are good at doing just that.

But, at the end of the day everyone is entitled to an opinion.

More importantly, who is right?

 

What’s about to unfold:

  • Are the conditions that precede a bubble “popping” finally here?
  • What happens if the market drops 30%?
  • What is money and wealth built on?
  • What are the biggest banks LVR and why does this matter?
  • How is Australia’s lending system differ from the rest of the world?
  • Is Australia’s economic climate stable?
  • What is “short selling”?
  • How can you tell when an agenda is influencing an opinion?
  • Why do we keep going on about supply and demand?
  • What is “irrational exuberance” and why is contributing to the bad news?
  • Why is now (perhaps more than ever) time to look back at your property fundamentals?
  • Is interest rate the King in all of this?
  • What’s the future of the Australian Property Market?
  • What do you need to start telling people today?

 

Full disclosure: Here’s the link to the article. Please decide for yourself 🙂

 

P.S. Should Ben do the Life Hack from now???

 

 

 

149 | Money Tips to Survive this Christmas

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It’s beginning to look a lot like…… Spending!

That’s right, folks. Christmas is just around the corner, and let’s face it: it’s an expensive time of the year for all of us.

So we thought we’d share some money management tips so you avoid filling the stocking with all your hard earned cash. We’ve also taken apart the latest CBA Report, which explains some alarming spending habits that you and a whole lot of Australian’s are doing in December.

Plus, we’ve got a ripper SURPRISE FOR OUR 150TH EPISODE next week. Yep — not only is The Stig opening, closing and Life Hack-ing the show (thanks to your Movember donations, woot woot) — but also, we have a SERIOUSLY EXCITING GUEST ON!!! It’s someone we’ve been trying to get on for a loooooong time.

Want to find out who it is?

You’ll find out in today’s episode!!! (After all, we’re in the festive spirit.)

 

*****Also, stay tuned to the end and you’ll bear witness to Ben’s truly ridiculous Did You Know?*****

 

So, what are we on about today?

 

 

Final Movember Tally: $11,533

If you donated and haven’t given us your address yet, please email us at [email protected]

 

P.S. Don’t forget: next week’s 150th Episode!!!!!!!!!!!!!

P.P.S. And here’s the link to the Dirty Santa’s Rules!

143 | When will the Power of Big Data and AI decide the Real Value of your Property? Chat with Greg Dickason, Chief Technology Officer at CoreLogic

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Big Data. Artificial Intelligence. When will it start calling the shots?

As promised, here’s our LIVE PODCAST from the Sydney Property Buyers Expo on the weekend! So if you missed our nail-biting chat with Greg Dickason, Chief Technology Officer at Corelogic, we have you covered!

First things first: CoreLogic is THE number 1 data provider in the world for property-related insights. Interested in learning the latest from a mouth that’s had a taste of what’s in store? Us too.

What can you expect?

  • Who is CoreLogic providing its data to? (and why it REALLY matters!)
  • What does Greg do in his role that will surprise you?
  • How and where does CoreLogic collects its data and how are they analysed?
  • When will this data transform the property industry?
  • How will you make property decisions in the future?
  • Is it possible for data to choose a property for you?
  • Top tips from Greg on how to use data to help you in buying your next property.
  • Can you buy this data yourself? How much is it?
  • BEN ANNOUNCES PICA (Property Investors Council of Australia)!!
  • Where can you access this data, right now?

Listen to the episode now.

Facebook Live Bonus Episode – Q&A on Property Hotspots Webinar

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It’s here folks! Sorry it took some time. We thought we’ll organise it a little bit before broadcasting it to the rest of our fellow couchers.

So here’s the recording of the Facebook Live last week! This session is mainly based on the Questions we’ve received from our webinar, Property Hotspots and How To Find Them. Enjoy!

 

 

And here’s the list of questions that we’ve answered on the night along with the time stamps (in minutes). Hope it helps!

 

04:17
From Louise		 Hey guys, LOVE your work! I’m curious why you look for very low stock on market rather than high stock on market.

If you were to go with buying when others a fearful and selling when others are greedy (Buffet strategy), then wouldn’t you try to purchase in a buyers market where stock on market is higher? Or am I interpreting the data wrong?
07:42
From Paul		 When listening to all the experts they talk about buying properties under the median price.

From memory LS talk about Market Price?
10:06
From Jenny		 Does the history on location score for the various measures only go back to 2016 Jan?
10:44
From Steve		 Hey guys, having a sneaky watch during work…shhhhh. Can you please advise what the \”Statistical Reliability\” index is tracking and how this is determined? Thanks
12:42
From Ben		 Some commentators mention a term called Established Capital Benchmark as an indicator of value of a property vs others in a certain area. Whilst this does not appear to be related to supply & demand, it may be of value to investors looking at a specific property in a suburb. Is ECB a legitimate indicator when looking at a particular suburb, and is there a place for it as a metric for investors?
16:39
From Ben		 Is there a way to track the Location Score for a suburb over time? So a report based on date range showing variation in LS over time?
18:54
From Mandie		 I’m keen to buy but not sure which is the best State to invest using my SMSF.
20:26
From Jaccob		 What websites am I best to monitor to find major infrastructure projects, in construction or proposed? Cheers
20:40
From Todd		 Do the high location scores (>80) match your professional opinions on where you would recommend to buy? For example, Risdon Vale looks to be a fringe suburb of Hobart?
26:2
From Nathaniel		 Firstly many thanks for the data and overview and also the pod cast and book I have consumed all material you guys have produced. I guess the difficult part for me personally is finding a place to start when your looking at so many suburbs! I started my research by listing all suburbs within a 25km radius of the city I was interested in. Then included if the suburb had a train line from there I listed the location score of each suburb and the median price of properties, to try to narrow my searches to a handful of suburbs. I maybe suffering from analysis, paralysis, as I\’m still to close out a purchase. Some feedback on location score I\’d love to be able to filter on some of the metrics ie if I want to know what suburbs in Brisbane have the best rental returns only, or best supply ratio etc. I think it will help with filtering or pinpointing suburbs a lot better. P.s not a question just feedback, keep up the great work.
27:55
From Adam		 On vacancy rates, rapid increases in vacancy (particularly units) makes sense from a supply perspective (new developments). What’s the driver for rapid decreases in vacancy rates (as per the Southbank example)?
30:18
From Aaron		 Is it possible that the creation of this big data analysis system could artificially change the market? As investors shift towards buying or not buying in a certain location based on this information – does that artificially change the locations supply and demand?
33:56
From Yuna		 If I am trying to get in the market for buy and sell strategy then do I still need to look at all of those indicators we have looked? Thank you so much. Love your podcast Ben and Bryce 🙂
35:37
From Anne		 I’ve been using LS since your launch & I think it\’s fantastic. I was wondering if the you plan to further define the criteria in future, such as the ability to report a location score to include the number of bedrooms, bathrooms etc.
38:01
From Felix		 If you pick a location with high location score – does that mean that the market is hot and you are potentially paying more as more buyers are interested in that market?

Once a property has been in a hot spot how does that effect the future growth. is the hot spot a temporary boost in appeal?
40:51
From Christopher		 I am a little confused, I subscribed to LocationScore after listening to all of the property couch podcasts and reading the Book. However, I am confused. All I have heard via The Property Couch is about more blue chip properties. Yet on location score so many of the Top 250 suburbs are far from being blue chip suburbs. Can you please why there is such a difference?
44:25
From Gayan		 Excellent webinar team. Just wondering if I should stop using the investment property magazine stats – or is this reliable data with maybe a few gaps if you are time poor and can\’t review each stat on interested suburbs? Keep up the great work.
46:12
From Karla		 Thank you so much for this webinar, it was a great learning tool! You touched on the fact that there are some differing stats on opposing websites, and I have found this to be true in my research too. Personally, do you take an average of those numbers, or are there certain sites you trust more for this information?
47:01
From Karla		 When you research a suburb that has some of these indicators missing (No results for vacancy rates etc) in their profiles, do you discount this suburbs? or how do you include them into your research?
47:56
From Karla		 Does LocationScore take into account, future town planning/development, and other lifestyle factors in the suburbs to give its suitability score?
48:16
From Neisha		 If a lot of these indicators are good by your estimates, doesn’t it mean that it is not necessarily a good time to buy into that market ie if stock on market is low, vendor discounting is low, OSI is high doesn’t it mean the market is quite hot and it may be prudent to wait?
48:47
From Chris		 Could a downward trending Vendor Discount metric mean that a selling agent is adjusting the asking price lower over time to reflect a downtrend in recent sale prices?
49:15
From Nicole		 Based on your examples, does location score include all States and Territories, as you only showed the East coast or areas down South and South WA
49:38
From Ashish		 Is the research similar to other prediction reports ?
50:41
From Fred		 Is there a real difference between fair market price and fair market value?
51:49
From Peter		 Can you see what the weekly sales rate of non auction property

 
52:50
From Kosta		 Crosssing Investment Loans is generally a no-no, would you consider it for cash-flow properties in order to save on LMI (particularly when capital growth is not on the cards)?

 
53:16
From Tom		 You have negative gearing, and foreign investment trying to off shore their monies against potential political change. The 101 fundamentals of economics and markets, say equity markets doesn’t apply to property in most cases. People generally feel safer with tangible assets.
53:44
From Aaron		 Hey guys, love the show. Would love to know your thoughts on investing in north west Melbourne at the moment (Sunbury, Diggers Rest, Gisborne area).

Prices appear to be growing quite fast and there is lots of new infrastructure however, there are a lot of brand new estates.
54:46
From Matt		 Hi guys, if you had the option of buying a small one bedroom unit in an area close to city, (Randwick) or a 3 bedroom home further away (Gosford) what would you pick for a first home buyer ?
55:28
From Cameron		 As technology increases and people have the opportunity to work from home. (I am a property valuer employed by an office in Brisbane though I work from home on the Sunny Coast), do you think there will be a shift to lifestyle locations and therefore values will take over the cities. eg the coastal areas within 2-3 hours of a city.
57:20
From Sean		 As Buyers Agents, for a relatively conservative investor (plus young) is their a rule of thumb where you would say ok LVR is now ..% and we are happy for them to go and buy the next one.

Keen on capital growth plays at this stage, rather than yield.
58:20
From Jassi		 Opinions of buying an IP and building a granny flat in the back to increase cash flow?
(getting rent from the home and granny flat)
58:51
From Martin		 Hi guys! you are awesome, thanks for your insights.

When targeting auctions, how do you ensure that the value the bank will give to the house is close to the price you could pay for it?
59:38
From  Kimberly		 Hi Guys! Thanks so much for all your great work. I look forward to your podcast every week! I purchased my first investment property 18 months ago and have had a really bad experience with my tenant.

What are your tips for getting past the bad mindset this can cause?

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