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Episode 169 | Alan Oster – NAB’s Group Chief Economist – on Interest-Rate Rise, Tax Cut and The Future of Residential Property

Let’s get down to business, folks! Today we’re tackling the past, present and future of Australia’s economy…

And who better to help us out than Alan Oster, Group Chief Economist of the National Australia Bank (NAB)!

Alan sure knows his stuff, folks — as Group Chief Economist, Alan is responsible for NAB’s global economic and financial forecasts. Not to mention, before he started at NAB (which was in 1992, mind you), he worked as Senior Adviser in Treasury specialising in economic forecasting and modelling for an impressive 15 years. Oh, and in 1987 he was seconded for nearly four years as Counsellor-Economic and Financial with Australia’s delegation to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development — OECD — in Paris.

Yes, he’s definitely the man you want to speak to if you’ve got a question about Australia’s economy!

 

Hold on to your seat folks cause here’s what you’re in for:

  • Where is the economy going in the next 12 – 18 months?
  • Rather than mortgage stress, what’s the number one issue at present?
  • What’s going to happen, on average, to house prices?
  • Will your wage increase any time soon?
  • Federal Budget 2018: What’s in store and will we see tax cuts?
  • Who will struggle most with postcode restrictions?
  • What needs to happen to benefit the economy?
  • Is the Australian economy going to be better or worse?
  • How do foreign buyers and the Chinese market fit in?
  • Will APRA keep tightening the lending regulations?
  • When’s the cash rate likely going to increase?
  • Is inflation on the rise?
  • What’s in store for interest-only loans?
  • What’s happening in the US with the 10-year bond rates?
  • Why do banks care about outer city living and inner city living?
  • Is the demand in Sydney and Melbourne slowing?
  • What’s the riskiest sector should unemployment starts to rise?
  • What’s the difference between “the bricks” and the “the clicks”?
  • What do banks ALWAYS look for before handing out loans?
  • Who owns most of the apartments in the capital cities and what are his thoughts on the future of the apartment market?
  • What about the second-tier cities (Brisbane, Adelaide etc.)
  • Which states are having the fastest rental growth?
  • Is Perth now an investment-grade location?
  • Where would Alan invest his money?
  • What happened when then Treasurer Paul Keating removed negative gearing?
  • What will be the economic impact and consequences if negative gearing is removed again at the current time?
  • How should we tackle housing affordability?

 

p.s. Looking for the special reports mentioned in today’s show?

 

Season 3 is out! The Property Couch + RealEstate.com.au

Season 3 is back in full force

Alright folks, here we go again! With over 831,900 views in the previous two seasons we are aiming for big stuff this time around! This season is all about the numbers and recent changes in the Australian Property Market so make sure to tune in and find out more!

Here we go!

 

And of course, here are the trailers!


 

Here are all the episodes from previous seasons!:

Season 2:

  • Investing in property can help you retire comfortably | Watch here >>
  • Need a home loan? Here are the 5 Cs the banks looks for  | Watch here >>
  • What makes for an investment grade property? | Watch here >>
  • The other “C” in property! What and How do you compromise on what you want? | Watch here >>
  • The 4 ways you’ll pay as a property investor? | Watch here >>

Season 1:

 

We’d love any feedback or suggestions on which videos you’d love to see! So get in touch with us here: info@thepropertycouch.com.au.

 

All the best,

Bryce, Ben and Stiggy

 

 

Episode 162 | Q&A – Second-tier Lenders, Brisbane’s units market and the order in Investment Assumptions (PLUS a special appearance from Jeremy Sheppard)

We have a couple of treats in store for you today, folks!!

Not only is it Q & A Day — we know: it seems like forever since we had one, and we love ‘em!! — we’ve also created A BRAND NEW SEGMENT, which is kicking off on the Couch TODAY.

Yep. Think property markets. Think sneak peak. Think data!

Actually, speaking of data, joining us for a portion of today’s episode (hint, hint) is Jeremy Sheppard! He’s our other third of LocationScore.com.au and the pioneer of the DSR Formula, which collects, analyses and researches the level of supply and demand across every market and 15,000 suburbs in Australia!

(You would have heard his insights back on Episode 125 | Everything You Need to Know about Picking the Next Hotspot — Chat with Jeremy Sheppard or on our last Facebook Live!)

 

…. What will be covered from today’s questions?

  • Should you invest in a Brisbane unit?
  • What are the pros and cons of second-tier lenders?
  • Are the assumptions about property investing making you confused?

Alright folks, before we kick off the questions, you’ll notice soon that all of them are voice recorded messages! Yep, we’re officially prioritising all of our questions that come in through our SpeakPipe widget! So leave us a quick, 60 second voicemail here!

 

Question about Investment Assumptions from Matthew:

“I’m wondering if you guys can take a moment and reflect on the investment assumptions in property, particularly on stuff like, “Hey, you should always buy in this order for capital gains: you should by a free standing house, and then a townhouse or a free standing house and a duplex and a townhouse and an apartment”… all of these investment based assumptions, which are general rules of investing in property. It’d be good to examine when they’re true and when they’re not true with different cases. I look forward to your answer. Cheers guys!”

 

Question about Investing in Brisbane Units from Pia:

“I’m a 31 year-old single woman from Brisbane with a budget of $360,000. My question is about the Brisbane unit market.
My priority is investment and I’m open when it comes to the location or type of property I purchase, but ideally I’d like to buy a place I can live in for the short to medium term, and a Brisbane unit is the best fit in that regard. I’ve been looking a 2br, 1 – 2 bathroom units in a 3 – 10km radius of the city in older boutique blocks. I’ve heard all of the warnings about the oversupply of apartments in the Brisbane market at the moment, but I’m wondering if this is the time when “Others are fearful and I should be greedy”? Where do you think we are in the market cycle? Are Brisbane units about to go up in value or are we still looking at another couple of years of downward or flat growth?

 

Question about Second-tier Lenders from James:

“My question is there have been a lot of media articles and posts around lenders outside of the big four banks, or second-tier lenders…. What are the Pros and Cons of using these lenders?”

 

 

And our chat with Jeremy Sheppard?

  • Why there’s not much data in January?
  • Recapping what is Online Search Interest and should investors be worry about the impact the season would have on the property market?
  • What’s the BIG NEWS on Perth??
  • Auction Clearance Rates and who are the outperformers and underperformers in this cycle?
  • How’s the month to month trend for each of the state?
  • What does Adelaide and Gold Coast’s property market trend have in common?
  • How about Days on Market data for February 2018?

 

P.S. Leave us a Voicemail Message here.

P.P.S. Want to find the best locations to invest in? REGISTER FOR A FREE WEBINAR here!

 

 

Episode 156 | Tim Lawless – Property Outlook 2018 with CoreLogic’s Director of Research

We promised you a market outlook last week….. so, folks, we had to deliver!

Yep! This week on the Couch, we’ve wrangled in Tim Lawless, CoreLogic‘s executive research director for Australasia, who heads up the Data Research and Analytics team, analysing and interpreting real estate, demographic and economic trends across the country! He’s one of Australia’s leading property market commentators, so…..

In a nutshell: Tim knows his stuff.

For our newer listeners, Tim no stranger of the Couch. Back in Episode 90, he joined us to chat about the impact of Donald Trump on the Australian Property Market. So what’s in store this year for each state and capital in Australia?

Tune in…… you’re about to find out!!

 

Before we jump in and tell you the property outlook 2018, Bryce wants to remind you to send in your Android Life Hack (please and thank you) so we can even the playfield with the iPhone users! Just email it in to info@thepropertycouch.com.au!

 

Okay, so today’s big questions are:

  • What’s in store for the Australian property market?
  • Is there going to be a significant shock?
  • What’s up with the economy? (Think, “Will your wage increase?” and interest rates!)

 

Now, let’s drill it down to Capital Cities:

*** Scroll down for the city you’re most interested in ***

Melbourne

Sydney

  • What are the tips and trends happening in Sydney?
  • How much has the market fallen and how much more will it fall?
  • What areas are holding their value?
  • Which quartile is coming down the most?
  • Will Sydney bust now that it’s peaked?
  • Are first home buyers entering the market?
  • What is the median value for houses and units?
  • How will the lending restrictions affect the market?
  • Are yields increasing?

Brisbane

Perth

  • Is there growth happening in Perth?
  • Are the investment stock levels reducing?
  • How many new listings are there?
  • Is it on our radar?
  • Where are the vacancy rates highest?
  • What signs should you look for?

Hobart

  • Is it a sustainable market?
  • What sort of investor should you be in the Hobart market?
  • What are the investment trends?
  • How much of the market is investment driven?
  • Who is buying in Hobart?
  • Will there be investment opportunities coming up?

Adelaide


Canberra

Darwin

  • Is Darwin showing signs of turning around?
  • What’s happening with the yields?
  • Are buyer numbers increasing?
  • How many new listings are there? How do they compare to Melbourne & Sydney?

 

p.s. Looking for the CoreLogic January 2018 Chart Pack? Download it here!

 

 

Episode 155 | Think you know your A.B.C.D — How to Action The Four Pillars of Mastery in 2018!

It’s the day in our week we most look forward to… Happy Podcast Day, folks!

And, you betcha: this episode is ESSENTIAL!

Why?

If you’re a regular listener of the show (legend), you know that we go on and on about making sure you head back to our earliest episodes (pre-studio & pre-“professional podcast hosts”), because the information we shared in our glory days is vital. It’s foundational. It’s absolutely the name-of-the-game in property investing!

That’s why today we’re revisiting The Four Pillars of Mastery….. the ABCD of Property Investing. Because now, more than ever, they are going to determine the success of your property portfolio.

What are they again? (Click the link for their full episode).

ABCD. Memorise them. Make sure you’re intimate with every detail and action them in 2018.

 

Before we explain how you can achieve all this, we want to let you know that if you missed our Throwback Thursday this morning — either you haven’t checked your inbox yet or are yet to register for our free stuff — we gave you Dr Danika Wright’s slides, Controlling the housing asset bubble: Affordability, financial stability and regulation, which she presented at the Affordability Conference  late last year. So, if you’re interested in The Housing Bubble Debate or Supply and Demand, we suggest you check it out. You can access it here.

(And, remember: $5 is all you need to become a PICA Member!)

 

Right, what’s the deal with today’s episode?

  • What’s the latest with the negative gearing debate?
  • How can Ben’s latest acronym — SACI — influence your cash flow?
  • What is “open banking”, and how can changes in technology influence your cash flow?
  • What is the biggest risk with your cash flow?
  • What are the four categories of cost?
  • Conversational Commerce: Watch this space!
  • Is equity enough to land you a loan?
  • How do you get around the APRA lending changes?
  • Why do you need to have a borrowing strategy?
  • Looking towards the future, are there consequences of going P & I?
  • We’ll say it again: investment stock vs investment grade
  • What are fundamentals of asset selection?
  • What does defence protect?
  • What do you need to know about insurance that’s REALLY important?

 

Resources mentioned:

 

 

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